Presentation of the mobilisation chronology from September 2022 to August 2023.

Content

1. September-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
2. October-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
3. November-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
4. December-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
5. January-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
6. February-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
7. March-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
8. April-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
9. May-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
10. June-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
11. July-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
12. August-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia
13. Conclusions and Brief overview of the events after the announcement of mobilization in Russia

Chapter 1. September-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On September 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin made a statement that partial mobilization of population is announced in Russia. Formally, Belarus has not joined the war against Ukraine, though providing the territory to Russian aggressors for the attack. However, till now, the Belarusian troops have not crossed the border. At the same time, the chronology of the events shows that preparation and training of the Belarusian military has intensified.

September 21, 2022. The State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, commented on the appearing rumors about the probability of mobilization in Belarus in connection with the announced of partial mobilization in Russia. «Mobilization does not apply to us; the people and the country of Belarus are already mobilized. We are always ready, God forbid, to fight back using the forces and means which are meant for that purpose.», – said Alexander Volfovich answering the questions of the journalists after the meeting of with the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Nikolai Patrushev.

September 23, 2022. Aliaksandr Lukashenka made a statement that there would be no mobilization in Belarus: «That mobilization is in Russia. They are trying to throw that bridge that mobilization will be here as well… There will be no mobilization. I’s a lie», – Lukashenka told the journalists.

He emphasized that «Belarus will respond to possible threats and attempts at terrorist attacks». For that, military exercises are being held in the country, including these with the participation of the so-called people’s militia., so that «people would know their responsibilities and had the necessary military skills».

September 23, 2022. In the North-Western Operational Command under the leadership of the deputy commander for ideological work, Valery Yanushkevich, a training and methodological gathering of deputy commanders of military formations and units for ideological work took place. During the gathering, the issues of organization, planning and conducting activities of ideological work were discussed with consideration of the specifics of tasks for the intended purpose, included strengthening the defense of the state border.

September 24, 2022. About 130 mercenaries of the PMC «Liga» arrived to Minsk and immediately started trainings with the Belarusian security company «GuardService». The colonel of the APU, Anatoly Stefan, paid attention to that. «There is high probability of operation of sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the territory of Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions. Why do they need that? To accuse Ukraine of artificial destabilization of the situation and to create fertile ground for mobilization among Belarusian supporters of Putin.»

September 26, 2022. The Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makey in his interview to RIA News confirmed the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus and the corresponding plans of the Belarusian and Russian regimes.

«Our presidents have already spoken on the matter some time ago, that certain types of aircrafts will be modernized and equipped also with the corresponding means of transportation of nuclear weapons. Some other variants are not excluded either,» – said the close accomplice of Lukashenka. «However, as I understand, everything will depend on the behavior of our partners, on those direct threats for Belarus and Russia. If any such steps will be made by our Western partners, then of course we, together with Russia, will elaborate an adequate response accordingly.»

September 28, 2022. In Belarus a sudden check of combat and mobilization readiness of the military unit 06752 in Machulishchy (near Minsk) started. As the Ministry of Defense announced, the check is going to be carried out for a month. The military will work through a number of issues, the main ones being the conscription, restoration of skills of those liable for military duty, removal of military and special equipment from storage with the scope to check its combat readiness. The Ministry of Defense of Belarus made a statement that the check was allegedly being conducted in accordance with the Air Force and Air Defense forces training plan. However, in the light of the Russian mobilization and obvious preparation to the start of mobilization in Belarus such statements look extremely bogus.

September 28, 2022. In the Western Operational Command, regular control sessions on combat training subjects took place, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. In the fire town of the 74th separate communication regiment of the Western Operational Command a firing training test was held, during which officers fulfilled the standards and also developed techniques and methods of firing from regular weapons.

September 29, 2022. In Belarus, repressions against people unwilling to serve in the army with a high probability to be sent to the Russian was against Ukraine continue. A 24-year-old man was tried in Minsk for the attempt to avoid military service by going to Poland. He was detained when he came home for a visit and was sentenced to two months of arrest. The court found him guilty under Part 1 Art. 435 of the Criminal Code (evasion from activities on draft to the military service).

September 29, 2022. At Osipovichsky firing range, a tactical exercise with the first rocket artillery battalion of the 336th rocket artillery brigade took place, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. Crews of the MLRS «Smerch» practiced tasks of weapons charging, exit to launching sites, and carrying out strikes at conditional enemy. After the training launches, the servicemen stowed the machinery and departed from the position.

September 30, 2022. It was communicated that a check of the radio navigation aids of the airfield network started, a rotation of aviation units of the Joint Air-Defense and Air Force Training and Combat Center of Military Forces of Belarus and Russia was carried out with replacement of three out of four available Su-30M multi-purpose fighters. Also, the Operational command «North» informs about similar work of Belarusians on the railway.

Chapter 2. October-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

October 4, 2022. Lukashenka spoke on whether Belarus is getting ready for war. According to the self-proclaimed president, there is no need to announce mobilization in Belarus.

Also, during the meeting on military security, Lukashenka made a statement that «Poland is building up its military forces at the Belarusian borders, Lithuania is trying to keep up. Under the guise of supporting Kyiv, a number of European countries are implementing their plans to rearm with modern weapons and equipment and reinforce their armies.»

October 4, 2022. Belarus cannot ignore the aggressive policy of NATO and neighboring countries, Belarusian defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, told the media after the meeting held with security forces to discuss the country’s military security. «We will respond to all threats that may arise, quickly, accurately and adequately. For this, we have both the forces and the means.»

The defense minister made a statement that under the guise of an imaginary «threat from the East», NATO countries and Belarus’ neighbors are not just militarizing. «They are preparing for war. Proceeding from this, we are mapping out concrete and adequate response measures,» he added.

October 5, 2022. Aliaksandr Lukashenka admitted the participation of Belarus in the «special military operation» of Russia, and added that «But we don’t kill anyone.» Instead, during the meeting held with security forces to discuss the country’s military security, Lukashenka claimed that Belarus’ participation was first of all limited to preventing the conflict from spreading onto Belarusian territory and, secondly, to have Russia’s back.

October 6, 2022. «From September, 20, till October, 14, a regular training of people liable to military service are held at the 74th separate regiment of the Western Operational Command,» the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. «The reservists replenish skills and knowledge in tactical and special, firing and ideological training, as well as in the previously obtained military specialties.»

October 6, 2022. A regular conscription campaign is held in Belarus, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. Thousands of young men are directed to military enlistment and conscription offices to determine their suitability for military service. The first conscripts are planned to replenish the armed forces by the end of October.

October 06, 2022. «As of today, the conflict in Ukraine, provoked by the West, also carries risks and challenges to the military security of our state. Even though Belarusians do not fight with Ukraine,» said the defense minister of the Republic of Belarus, Lieutenant General, Viktor Khrenin, while informing the mass media on the military and political situation in the country and abroad.

October 7, 2022. Persecution of young people unwilling to take up arms and be sent to the war against Ukraine, continues in Belarus. An 18-year-old, accused of evasion from activities on draft to the military service, is going to be tried in Minsk. The young man is accused under Part 1 Art. 435 of the Criminal Code (evasion from activities on draft to the military service), he is facing up to two years of imprisonment.

October 7, 2022. During the meeting with the Mass Media, the Defense Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, answering the question about the scale of work done with servicemen of the reserve, said the following:

• this work is absolutely regular one;
• mobilization trainings with servicemen of the reserve are of constant character;
• in the last 20 years, 130 thousand people have gone through mobilization trainings;
• if necessary, the Defense Ministry can field a resource of 500 thousand persons liable to military service, and it is about the trained reserve;
• 60% of the Belarusian army consists of contract soldiers. There is no need to create a contract army in Belarus.

Also, the defense minister announced the arrival of a number of new equipment to the army: missile launchers Iskander, air defense systems S-400, as well as a presentation of unmanned combat complexes in October.

October 10, 2022. Lukashenka and Putin agreed on deployment of joint Regional Grouping of Forces. Lukashenka announced that at the meeting on military security. «If the threat level reaches the current level, as it is now, we start deploying the Union State grouping. The base of the grouping is the army, the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus. I should inform you that the grouping has already started forming. It has been going on for two days.»

October 10, 2022. Partizansky District Court examined a criminal case against a 19-year-old man, accused of evasion from activities on draft to the military service. The materials of the case state that the defendant, being a conscript and being warned of the criminal liability for evasion from activities on draft to the military service, from February, 1 till March, 31 of the current year «maliciously evaded the activities on draft to the military service till the end of the conscription, in particular, he thrice failed to appear at the location of the activities on draft to the military service without valid reasons». In the result the young man was found guilty of evasion from activities on draft to the military service and sentenced to 240 hours of community service.

October 11, 2022. The Russians continue to deploy Iranian kamikaze drones Shahed-136 to Belarus. As of October 10, 2022, 32 drones were brought to the country, other 8 drones are expected to be delivered in the following days, informed RBC-Ukraine making reference to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Besides that, the Ukrainian intelligence states that Belarus is providing the occupation army with material and technicals means and ammunition from its storages.

«In particular, a railway echelon with ammunition arrived to Kiyevskaya railway station in the Crimea carrying 12 freight cars / 492 tons, sent from the 43rd arsenal of storage of missiles and ammunition in Belarus», – said the Main Directorate of Intelligence.

Also, according to the Directorate, it is planned to move 13 echelons with weapons and military equipment in the near future (219 platforms), ammunition (28 cars) from Belarusian arsenals and storage bases.

According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence, the main «suppliers» are:

• 46th missile and ammunition storage arsenal (Bronnaya Gora, Brest region);
• 43rd missile and ammunition storage arsenal (Dubetskoye, Gomel region);
• 391st artillery ammunition base (Bobr, Minsk region);
• 969th tank reserve base (Uruchcha, Minsk region);
• 288th automobile reserve base (Starye Dorogi, Minsk region).

It is also known that the freights are supposed to arrive to the railway stations «Kamenskaya» (Kamensk-Shakhtinsky) and «Martsevo» (Taganrog), Rostov region.

October 11, 2022. Servicemen of the 38th Brest Gurads Separate Airborne Assaul Brigade had a night airdrop mission from a military transport aircraft Il-76MD, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel.

October 11, 2022. «The tasks of the Regional Grouping of Forces are purely defensive,» – said the Defense Minister of the Republic of Belarus, Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin, while informing the mass media on the military and political situation in the country and abroad. «Today, accordingly to the unfolding situation, we are gradually implementing separate measures, directed at proactive preparedness of RGF(S) to respond to the unfolding situation to ensure safety along the perimeter of the borders of the Union State. In accordance with the threats, a regrouping maybe carried out to cover separate directions.»

October 11, 2022. Starting from October, 11, the State Secretariat of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus, in accordance with the instructions of the president, carries out an inspection of the Armed Forces of Belarus, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. During the inspection, military units and divisions will work on achieving combat readiness, marching and «deployment in designated areas with the implementation of combat training tasks.»

October 11, 2022. «Belarus participates in the «special operation» in Ukraine, fulfilling several functions,» – the First Deputy of the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Pavel Muravejka, told the Belarusian television. «We are an ally of the Russian Federation. We are standing shoulder to shoulder with our Russian brothers, and we will not allow any blows in their back, we will not allow any attack on them. Peace and order must always be in the territory of Belarus, which will also provide tranquility in the Western regions of the Russian Federation,» said Muravejka.

October 12, 2022. During the inspection of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, held by the State Secretariat of the Security Council of the Republic of Belarus, military units and divisions, in the shortest possible time, marched and arrived to the assigned areas of fulfilment of training and combat tasks, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. Upon arrival, the servicemen started equipment of frontiers in an engineering manner.

October 13, 2022. On October, 12, Belarusian parliament adopted on first reading the draft law specifying, among others, the grounds for granting the right to deferment of military service. The main thing, the draft law suggests a decrease in the number of people receiving the right to deferment of military service. It suggests that only those students studying abroad will be granted the right to deferment who have been sent there by the state.

October 13, 2022. The State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich: no mobilization is being planned in Belarus, all the conscription activities are regular. «Now, a regular autumn conscription is starting. Send your children, so that they would become morally stronger, gain experience, independence, become mature.»

October 14, 2022. They started to prepare the citizens of Belarus to the general mobilization for war, in the image and likeness of the Russian mobilization. The former leader of the General Staff of Belarus, currently the Chair of the Standing Commission of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus on National Security, Oleg Belokonev, said on the air of ONT that if there was going to be a mobilization in Belarus, it would be held in the shortest possible time. «No mobilization has been announced here. However, if it is needed, it will be held in the shortest possible time. Thus, the size of the armed forces will multiply many times.» The former leader of the General Staff of Belarus also informed, that according to his data, a «quite powerful operational equipment» of territories is happening in the Baltic countries and in Poland. «It’s one of the indicators that a state is preparing for [war]. (…) We should react accordingly to all those things,» said Belokonev.

October 15, 2022. First echelons with Russian servicemen, making part of the Regional Grouping of Forces, arrived to Belarus, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel.

October 15, 2022. Commander of the Joint Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev said, that up to a thousand servicemen from Russia, 6 aircrafts, 4 Iskanders and 12 anti-aircraft missile systems C-400 are constantly deployed in the territory of Belarus.

October 16, 2022. Russia started transferring military aircrafts and helicopters to Belarus, which will constitute the aviation part of the Regional Grouping of Forces, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel.

October 16, 2022. Around 9 thousand Russian servicemen are planning to arrive to Belarus in the framework of the deployment of the joint grouping of forces, informed the head of the International Military Cooperation Department, Assistant Minister, Valery Revenko. Redeployment is going to take several days. The total number will constitute slightly less than 9 thousand people.

October 17, 2022. The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus continue to fulfill tasks to strengthen border security, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. Under protection are bridges, crossings, railways, are equipped positions for firing of small arms and military equipment.

October 17, 2022. Emergency officials of Belarus received arms from the Ministry of Defense. The head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Vadim Sinyavsky, informed that when ordered, emergency officials will perform tasks to maintain order and defend the country in case of mass riots or armed conflict. Also, Sinyavsky made a statement that over five thousand of closed constructions will be used in Belarus to shelter the population from missile attacks.

October 17, 2022. Belarus threatens to take preventive measures of strategic deterrence to prevent attacks on its territory. Use of military force is considered among those measures, informed the head of the International Military Cooperation Department of Belarus, Valery Revenko. He made a special mention of the threat from the side of Lithuania. He underlined that Belarus will defend its national interests using all the means it possesses, including the use of military force.

October 18, 2022. Belarusian servicemen from different arms received a communication forbidding their travel abroad with any purpose. At the same time, in the whole country, the campaign to withdraw passports from the law enforcers started. The only country, that Belarusian servicemen are allowed to travel, is Russia. That order is given verbally to the military.

October 20, 2022. The Russian aviation component of the Regional Grouping of Forces is conducting regular patrolling of the air borders, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel.

October 20, 2022. Starting from October, 24, citizens of the Republic of Belarus drafted for military service, service in the reserves, will be sent to military divisions and units of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. On the first day, about 1000 conscripts will be sent to the troops; they will join the ranks of special operations forces, 72nd combined training center and Minsk military commandant office. In general, it is planned to send about ten thousand people to man the Armed Forces, other troops and military formations of the Republic of Belarus in October and November. Besides that, it is planned to send about two hundred people to the service in the reserves in the same period.

October 20, 2022. «On the basis of the 72th Guards Joint Training Centre for Warrant Officers and Junior Professionals scheduled training military sessions are held with those liable for military service,» the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported in its Telegram channel. According to official statements, the purpose of the event was the retraining of the arrived personnel in the military registration specialty. In particular, classes were held with recruits in military topography, fire and tactical training.

October 20, 2022. According to the Telegram channel of Belarusian Intelligence, in the first half of October, the mobilization department of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense issued an order under the seal «classified» on the preparation of «urgent training» for both reserve servicemen and reserve troops. Packages were received by numerous military registration and enlistment offices over the country.

Here’s how it’s going to go down.

Recruits are called to the military registration and enlistment offices by means of a call or draft notices to «clarify information». Upon arrival, the necessary identification data is specified, the conscript undergoes a medical examination (if necessary) and a permanent mobilization order is glued into the military ID card, a briefing is given and responsibility for evasion is reported. Those liable for military service who have prescriptions, in the event of an announcement of mobilization or military trainings, are obliged to immediately arrive at the collection points. Particularly the conscripts with ‘deficient’ specialties for the military infrastructure will be drafted.

The selection of candidates will be carried out taking into account special criteria, primarily loyalty to the current Belarussian government. Primarily the residents of depressed areas of no contact on the border with Ukraine will be conscripted. These will be Belarusians from the Vitebsk and Gomel regions, as well as the north-east of the Mogilev region. Future soldiers should not experience good-neighborly empathy for the people of Ukraine.

October 20, 2022. According to the Belarussian Ministry of Defense, purposeful work is being carried out to re-equip the troops with new modern types of weapons, military and special equipment. The equipment is being upgraded in three directions: the modernization of existing equipment at industrial enterprises in Russia and Belarus, the purchase of modern samples produced in Belarus, delivery of such samples from Russian enterprises within the framework of military-technical cooperation.

Thus, the Armed Forces have already received new armored vehicles BTR-82A, modernized tanks T-72B3 and armored vehicles BTR-70MB, lightly armored combat vehicles «Dragon» and «Caiman», other types of weapons and military equipment. In view of the evolving military and political situation, considerable attention is being paid to equipping troops with unmanned aerial systems of various levels and purposes.

As modern weapons are delivered to formations and military units, obsolete models of military equipment are withdrawn from the troops to arsenals and weapons bases for the purpose of their subsequent modernization or repair and laying in reserve. To date, the re-equipment of tank, mechanized and landing units with new models of armored weapons and vehicles has been completed.

The released samples of weapons and military equipment are sent to industrial enterprises, including the Russian ones, for modernization. Upon completion of the upgrade, these samples will be delivered both to active military formations and army units, also they will be intended to provide reserve units.

October 21, 2022. In the Pinsk and Stolin districts of Belarus, special services have banned any video recording, including the use of car DVR. This was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

October 21, 2022. «The Belarussian State Military-Industrial Committee demonstrates the combat capabilities of national promising models of weapons, military and special equipment at the 230th combined-arms polygon Obuz-Lesnovsky,» The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported this information in its telegram channel.

October 23, 2022. Republican unitary enterprise Beldorcenter finally closed access to hundreds of traffic cameras throughout Belarus. Previously, the picture from the cameras was updated once an hour and allowed everyone to assess the condition of the road surface on the main roads of Belarus. The cameras were accessed through the i.centr.by website, but that function was disabled with the beginning of the full-scale war. One day earlier access to Beldorcenter surveillance cameras on the weather service windy.com was also disabled.

This year, it is the second similar case. For the first time viewing was blocked shortly before the Russian troops’ intervention in Ukraine, January 14, 2022. Then the Belarussian State Border Committee denied access to cameras at the entrance and exit of the Belarusian border crossings. Moreover, cameras stopped operating first and foremost on the border with Ukraine.

October 24, 2022. In Belarus, Iranian instructors train the Russian military and supervise the launch of drones. This was written by the Centre for National Resistance created by the Special Operation Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In Belarus the Iranian instructors were noticed, they could coordinate the launches of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones at infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. It stated that a group of Iranian instructors, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Officers, was observed in the village of Mikulichi in Gomel region. The above-mentioned group was under heavy guard of both Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) and FSB officers. Namely, these instructors coordinated the launch of drones on the infrastructure objects of the Kyiv region, the Northern and Western regions of Ukraine. In addition, it is reported that the Russians have completely taken control of the air bases in Baranovichi and Lida and continue to use them to attack the territory of Ukraine.

October 29, 2022. Belarusians have been boycotting Lukashist military training and mobilization. The Volkovysk District Court gave a fine of 2,240 in Belarusian rubles to a 30-year-old Belarusian for ‘willful evasion of calling up for military training’.

In the meantime, in Gomel, a show trial was held in the military enlistment office (pictured) over a 21-year-old conscript who did not appear on the summons to the recruitment office this May. To a direct question about the desire to serve in the army, he answered, «No, I don’t want to serve.» The so-called court sentenced him to one month of imprisonment with sending to an arrest house.

October 31, 2022. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Kadyrov’s men began to arrive in Belarus together with the Russian military servicemen.

October 31, 2022. Lukashenka signed another decree No. 387 approving a draft agreement with the Russian Federation on the establishment and operation of joint military training and combat centers

• Further details about the project have not been disclosed. There is no additional information about the number of planned centers, their possible location, training format. However, we can confidently assume that Russian specialists will train others, including Belarusians, for the needs, interests and tasks of the Russian Federation;
• It can also be assumed that the centers will be used as a mechanism for direct recruitment – the recruitment of Belarusian citizens into the Russian armed forces or Russian private military companies.

Chapter 3. November-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

November 2, 2022. Preparations are underway for the joint strategic military exercises of Belarus and Russia ‘Union Shield-2023’, which will become the main event of the joint training of both military authorities and troops next year. It should be reminded that the last joint Belarusian-Russian exercises ‘Allied Decisiveness – 2022’ in February of this year had ended with Russia invading Ukraine, in particular from the territory of Belarus.

November 3, 2022. The total militarization of society continues in Belarus. Now the authorities want to train teams of veterans of special forces units who will carry out combat missions in the event of a ‘mercenary invasion’.

November 4, 2022. The 250th Separate security and maintenance battalion of the Western Operational Command in conjunction with persons, who were called up from the reserve, have completed military training session on technical and regulated maintenance, technical support, technical inspection and testing of weapons, military and special equipment. For 25 days 15 conscripts from the city of Grodno, and also from Grodno, Volkovysk, Berestovitsky, Svisloch and Lida districts carried out the transfer of the automotive military equipment into the winter operation mode.

November 5, 2022. At the polygons of Belarus, in addition to MiG-31K aircraft and containers where Kinzhal missiles can be stored, many tents with Russian military have appeared. In particular, new satellite images by Planet Labs show a large number of military tents and equipment located at the 230th polygon near Baranovichi (Brest region). Two campgrounds can be seen. The larger one’s dimensions are estimated to be 150×220 meter (more than two football fields). Next to it, there is another campground of size 90 × 90 meter. The pictures were taken on October 31, but, according to the publication, the militaries and equipment began to arrive at the polygon after October 16.

November 6, 2022. Belarus claimed that Kyiv was preparing for war. Initially, a message appeared on the website of the Belarusian border guards that the Ukrainian security forces had committed a provocation using armored vehicles on the border with Belarus.

A little later, the Belarusian border service allegedly intercepted a Ukrainian drone a kilometer from the border, which, in particular, according to them, was used for reconnaissance.

«This incident may be a manifestation of tension on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border on the background of the creation of a joint Russian-Belarussian military grouping,» said Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee.

In his opinion, Kyiv can prepare not only riots in Minsk, but also an invasion of the country.

November 7, 2022. Conflicts on ethnic grounds have become more frequent between the Belarusian and Russian militaries, tension is growing. This was reported by the General Intelligence Department of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. The number of precedents is growing rapidly, which leads to an uncontrolled escalation of tension in the Republic of Belarus.

November 8, 2022. Russian militaries and equipment continue to be transferred to Belarus. Echelons are trying to bypass major cities in order to complicate the identification of military equipment on the platforms. The situation was reported by the Telegram channel Community of Belarussian Railway Workers.

November 9, 2022. The Russian army has been accumulating Iranian drones in Belarus. This was stated by the Ukrainian Ambassador to Britain Vadym Prystaiko. According to him, Iranian drones have been accumulating in Belarus ‘quite close to Kyiv’ and this is ‘the biggest concern’ for Ukraine.

November 11, 2022. The 38th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus has purchased and passed as ‘fraternal’ assistance to the personnel of the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation up to 100 sets of individual first-aid kits, assault vests and other equipment, according to the message of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

November 12, 2022. Active military exercises continue at the Belarussian polygons, oftentimes with the involvement of the Russian army units deployed in Belarus. At the moment, the exercises have been extended until November 21. The reason for the extension is not disclosed.

On November, 19, 2022, the Defense Minister of the Republic of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, made a statement: «We are not planning to get involved in any conflicts.» On that day he was visiting the 72nd Joint Training Centre in Pechy, where new conscripts were taking an oath, as in the rest of the country.

During his speech, Viktor Khrenin also communicated that servicemen would participate in all operational and combat training activities planned for the upcoming academic year. One of them is «Union Shield-2023» conducted together with the Russian military.

On November 19, 2022, the Deputy Minister of the Internal Affairs, the commander of the Interior Ministry troops, Mikalai Karpiankou, said on the TV that allegedly all the conscripts that had served in the Interior Ministry troops in the previous three years, signed up as volunteers in case «they try to butt in here». Apparently, they even formed several units out of the Interior Ministry troops’ veterans.

«Military unit 3214: at this point, about 350 people were demobilized, and each of them signed up as a volunteer in case a difficult situation comes up, then even without announcing partiall or full mobilization, they are going to come on their own to military units, take weapons and fight the enemy who tries to butt in here. All the fighters of the Interior Ministry troops who resigned in 2020, 2021, 2022, they all signed up as volunteers and got registered at their military units. We have left weapons, ammunition, uniforms, means of protection for them. We shall need no conscriptions. They will all arrive and stay at their military units in special forces battalions that we are forming, to attain combat tasks together with us,» said Karpiankou.

He also said that «certain units» had additionally been formed out of veterans who had served for over 25 years, but are still of conscription age.

«We formalized everything according to the law, as it should be.  We registered them with us. In case they are needed they will arrive to the units. It is the veterans who had served, who are called PMC groups, mercenaries in other countries, but they are our veterans who without money, from their own inner motivational condition, are ready to go and fight. We will reply to them that don’t you dare to come here, because we will figure it out and cope with it only with these units, reserve units,» the commander of the  Interior Ministry troops said.

On November 22, 2022, the Deputy Minister of the Internal Affairs, the commander of the Interior Ministry troops, Mikalai Karpiankou, said that in order to raise the motivation of the fighters of the special forces units established in the Interior Ministry troops, rental housing will be built. According to him, the rental housing will be situated next to the corresponding military unit.

On November 22, 2022, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine, Hanna Maliar, said that the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine was not expecting invasion of Russian or Belarusian army from the territory of Belarus in the near future, as, according to the Ukrainian experts, insufficient forces had been assembled there for that purpose.

When asked, if there was an immediate threat of assault from the territory of Belarus, she replied that Ukraine assumed all scenarios as possible since they were being elaborated by Russia anyway.

On November 23, 2022, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reminded that military conscription and enlistement offices continued the scheduled verification of registration details of persons subject to conscription. The ministry said, that the data of all people liable for conscription would have been verified by the end of the year.

On November 24, 2022, the TV Zvezda channel reported that withing the framework of military training, the Russian army had deployed a field hospital in Belarus. 124 medical specialists work there: therapists, ultrasound specialist, ophthalmologists, orthopedists, neuropathologists and radiologists. The hospital has an emergency room, a therapeutic department and a surgery unit, an intensive care unit, a pharmacy. Its capacity is up to 300 people per day. During the military training in Belarus, the medical specialists learn to evacuate the wounded from the battle zone and provide the necessary medical assistance to them.

On November 24, 2022, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus reported that a complex training camp with officers from the ideological structure of the Armed Forces of Belarus continued. The participants of the camp were acquainted with peculiarities of the equipment of field recreation and information rooms, with the order of usage of propaganda munitions and modern means of ideological work, audio broadcasting station during combat actions. Besides that, the officers were shown a band of psychological training necessary to prepare the servicemen for conducting combat activietes.

On November 24, 2022, Oleksiy Gromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that according to the estimates of the General Staff, about 10-15 thousand of Belarusian enforcers are ready to fight against Ukraine. Their main motivation is money. At the same time, the moral and psychological state in the Belarusian army is low.

Also, according to him, the readiness of the Belarusian Armed Forces to conduct independent combat activities in Ukraine is estimated as low: the majority of the army personnel refuses to participate in the war.

«The enemy is spreading information about the so-called possible exacerbation of the situation in the period from November, 23 to 28 at the Russian-Ukrainian border. At the same time, it is claimed that NATO and Ukraine want to conquer the borderline areas of the «peaceful Belarus and Russia,» said Gromov. He added it is not ruled out that Russians can organize provocations in the said period.

On November 27, 2022, the Military Commissioner of Gomel district, Dzmitry Kalesnikau explained why the district military enlistment offices continue to verify personal data of Belarusians subject to military service. According to him, it is done so that the information about their family status, home address and health condition stays updated. People subject to military service, can be called to the human resources department at their place of work, to a local executive committee or to the military enlistment offices at their place of residence.

The military enlistment offices of Lepelsky and Ushachsky districts repeated several times that there was no hidden mobilization conducted in the country. Also, the commissariats explained what sort of information they were verifying about people subject to military service and till what date they were going to do it.

On November 28, 2022, the Telegram channel «Live. Community of railway workers of Belarus» informed that Russia had deployed to Belarus a huge echelon with military equipment by the railway: not less that 15 units of the Tor-M2 air defense systems and 10 units of engineering equipment. According to the channel, the military echelon N. 961 departed from the railstaition of Yeisk (Krasnodar Territory, Russian Federation) on November 25, 2022. It carried not less than 15 units of the Tor-M2 air defense systems and 10 units of engineering equipment.

On November 28, 2022, at 10.40 a.m., the train arrived to Orsha-Central station in Vitebsk region. The railway workers suspected that destination of the echelon was the station Lesnaya near Baranavichy. According to the railway workers’ information, it was not the last echelon with Tor-M2 air defense systems deployed to Belarus.

On November 29, 2022, the external adviser to the office of the president of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich, said that another offensive of the Russian army on the territory of Ukraine from the Belarusian direction was hardly probable for the time being. According to Mr. Arestovich, the Belarusian educational and material resources were used by the Russian military for the training of mobilized soldiers that later were sent mainly to Donbass.

In his interview, the external advisor assumed that «if everything goes normally» then the war would have ended by the summer of autumn of the next year, but there are numerous factors that can have an impact on the duration of hostilities.

On November 30, 2022, the Mayor of Brest, Aliaksandr Rahachuk warned that on November 30, 2022, during the daytime, a shooting cannonade can be heard from time to time in the city.

«According to the information provided by the command of the Brest Regional Military Enlistment Office, instructor and methodical trainings with platoon commanders of the 38th Gurads Separate Airborne Assaul Brigade will be held at Brestsky firing range,» said Rahachuk. He added that the activities were held in the framework of preparation for the new academic year starting in the Belarusian army of December 1, 2022.

On November 30, 2022, the Defense Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, claimed that the Russian experience of mobilization had been taken into consideration, what led to the decision to introduce corrections into the legislation. What corrections they decided to introduce remained unclear, but they promised to submit the issue to the public discussion.

The head of the Ministry of Defense said that in Belarus they analyze the Russian experience of conducting mobilization activities. He reminded that at the moment a «systematic and planned» verification of registration data of people subject to military service was being carried out in Belarus. According to him, over a million people liable for military duty have been verified.

Khrenin also said that the ministry «sees an elevated interest to get basic skills of military preparation among women as well», and reminded that there is a system of preliminary military training and pre-conscription training centers in Belarus.

Chapter 4. December-2022: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia

On December 3, 2022, the Defense Minister of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Belarus to negotiate with the Defense Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin. As the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported, the airplane with the head of the Ministry of Defense of Russia landed at the airfiled in Machulishchy.

«The Defense Minister of the Republic of Belarus, Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin, and the Defense Minister of the Russian Federation,  Army Genral Sergei Shoigu, discussed the pressing issues of the bilateral military and military-technical cooperation and signed a protocol between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation on amendments to the agreement of joint provision of regional security in the military sphere of December 19, 1997», the ministry reported.

On December 3, 2022, Aliaksandr Lukashenka had a meeting with the Defense Minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu. They discussed preparation of military units of Belarus and Russia, deployed in Belarus, and also talked about the war in Ukraine.

«I think, the Belarusian Defense Minister has told you about the situation in Belarus, about training combat coordination of Belarusian and Russian units deployed in Belarus. I must say, we had a very serious approach to the matter. Both our and your officers are training the guys. Training Belarusians and Russians, too. So that in case of necessity, our first lines – the defenders of the Union State, could repel every aggression,» Lukashenka said at the meeting. «From first aid kits to… I am not speaking about uniforms and other stuff, weapons. We don’t divide anybody here: we are training today as a unified group, as a unified army. Everybody around knows about that. We are not hiding that. It’s impossible to hide that in the modern world, actually».

According to him, that was the agreement he had made with the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin.

On December 12, 2022, the Telegram channel «Community of railway workers of Belarus Live» informed that a military echelon N. 963 with 13 tanks T-72Б3 arrived to Belarus from the Russian Federation. The echelon arrived to the station of destination on December 10, 2022, at 2.05 a.m. The tanks started to be unloaded on December, 10, at 5.10 p.m.

On December, 13, 2022, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus announced an unexpected check of combat rediness on the orders of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. «The activities are going to be comprehensive, conducted in the shortest possible terms, the troops are going to advance to designated areas, conduct their engineering equipment, organize their protection and defense, as well as build bridge crossings over Neman and Berezina», the communication said.

It also indicated there that «in the said period, it is planned to organize movement of military equipment and personnel, as well as to temporarily restrict movement of citizens (vehicles) on separate public roads and sectors of terrain».

On December 14, 2022, a Russian airborne warning and control system (AWACS) airplane of the Military Space Forces of the Russian Federation landed at the military airfield of Machulishchy. The AWACS А-50У of the MSF of RF «Sergey Atayants» with the registration plate RF-93966 landed at Machulishchy airfield around 3.27 p.m. of Minsk time. It was exactly А-50 of MSF RF with the plate number RF-93966 that had been spotted in Belarus in February, 2022, at the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine. It coordinated the strikes of Russian cruise missiles against targets in Ukraine, first of all, in Kyiv.

On December 14, 2022, the Telegram channel «Community of railway workers of Belarus Live» reported that at least 60 units of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Russia were deployed in Belarus by two military echelons. The first train departed from the city of Chebarkul on December, 8, and arrived to the railway station of Palonka in Baranavichsky district of Brest region on December, 12. It carried 30-40 units of new Ural trucks supposedly designated to supply the Russian troops deployed at the «Obuz-Lesnovsky» training ground, the nearest to the Palonka railway station.

The second echelon was sent from the station of Ostrogozhsk of Voronezh region of Russia on December 11, 2022, at 11.43 p.m., which arrived to Palonka on December, 14, at 7.50 a.m. The train included 26 flat cars with tracked and wheeled equipment of the Russian armed forces: 20 Urals, fuel trucks, at least four BPM-2.

On December 18, 2022, the head of the fourth division of the  the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Aliaksandr Shalpuk, informed that over 85% of people liable for military duty had passed the second stage of the registration data verification. Also, Shalpuk talked about mobilization assignments that Belarusians arriving to enlistment offices receive.

«That assignment is established by the legislation of our country: its form, issue procedure, who it is issued to. The assignment does not restrict citizens from moving or otherwise, it is a document that is telling a citizen that he is assigned to a specific military division in a specific military unit in accordance with his military occupation speciality. Such assignments had been issued by military enlistment offices before, but because the verification activities are now conducted in shorter terms, and not during a whole year, as it was done before, our citizens got the wrong idea that the assignment is given to everybody who enters a military enlistment office. It is not true. The assignments are issued to a limited number of people subject to military service», he said.

On December 19, 2022, the Internet mass media Zerkalo reported that Belarusians encounter restrictions to travel abroad on the order of military enlistment offices.

According to the information, provided be Zerkalo, one of the subscribers of a chat of Belarusians in Poland wrote that he had not been allowed to leave Belarus. The man was confident that the reason for that was a decision of a commissariat.

Another Belarusian was also restricted from leaving the country. He was going to permanently live abroad and get a PP series passport. For that, the man had had to close his individual entrepreneurship, pay all the debts to the state and child support (if applicable), and also to get a consent from the military enlistment office.

«If any governmental body does not think that a person can move to another country, a letter arrives that the departure for permanent residence abroad is prohibited», explains Mikalai. «As I understand, the reason to prohibit my departure was that I had not served in the army. I am not fit for service due to my state of health, but I received a draft notice for another medical examination. I could not go there, as my visa was about to expire. Therefore, I just ignored the draft notice and did not show up for the examination.»

As he was prohibited to leave the country for permanent residence, the man decided not to risk and crossed the border illegally.

On December, 19, 2022, at the press conference in Yereva, the General Secretary of CSTO, Stanislav Zas, informed that the for the upcoming year the Collective Security Treaty Organization had planned a number of trainings on Weastern borders, that is, on the territory of Belarus; for now joint Belarusian-Russian activities are sufficient for strategic deterrence.

As Zas said, the CSTO member states are going to conduct a number of joint trainings on Western borders in 2023; the trainings are going to be held in Belarus.

Also, the CSTO General Secretary claimed that joint Belarusian-Russian activities, that he called «a certain measure of deterrence», are alredy being conducted in the territory of our country. According to him, no expansion of the CSTO peacekeeping forces is being planned now.

On December 19, 2022, the Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Minsk. At 1.09 p.m., a special purpose aircraft passenger plane, control point Tu-214PU-SBUS with the registration plate RA-64529, landed in Minsk. The plane belongs to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and is equipped with a special onboard communication unit SBUS-214.

Sergei Shoigu had a meeting with the Defense Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin. The parties discussed issues of bilateral military and military-technical cooperation. The heads of the military bodies were also expected to participate in the negotiations between Aliaksandr Lukashenka and Vladimir Putin with restricted attendance.

On December 19, 2022, Goskomvoenprom of Belarus reported that investigation tests of a recent development of the «Precise Electromechanics Factory» Republican Production Unitary Enterprise, a  simulator of infrared radiation of a aerial objects IKI-1 had been successfully completed at Domanovo military training area in Ivatsevichsky district. «The product is completely of local origin,» says proudly the ministry. «There are not imported spare parts in it.  The construction design was completed in May.»

IKI-1 is a decoy imitating an aerial target for anti-aircraft guided missiles with a heat-seeking head. It is used to teach and train anti-aircraft gunners of portable anti-aircraft missile complexes Igla, Igla-1, Strela-10 air defense missile systems. Also, the new product can lighten the targets for gun-missile systems «Tunguska», Tor, Osa-AKM air defense system and ZU-23 in the conditions of a test site.

On December 19, 2022 the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that check of combat rediness activities in the Armed Forces of Belarus had been completed. The check was carried out since December, 13, on the orders of Aliaksandr Lukashenka and under control of the State Secretary of the Security Council, Alexander Volfovich.

On December 19, 2022, the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and Aliaksandr Lukashenka, illegally holding the power in Belarus, held a joint press conference on the results of Russian-Belarusian negotiations.

Vladimir Putin: «Of course, in the course of the today’s negotiations, we have discussed in detail the issues of creating a unified defense space, ensuring security of the Union State, as well as cooperation in the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, especially because the CSTO presidency passes to Belarus on January, 1.

I want to remind, that in the framework of consequent implementation of the joint Military Doctrine of Russia and Belarus, a joint military planning is being conducted, and a joint Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Forces is acting. Currently, combat coordination activities of military units and divisions of our coutries are being held in the territory of Belarus. A single air defense system has been created and is on duty.  We have agreed to continue take all the necessary measures to strongly ensure security of both our countries, to give priority to preparation of troops, increasing their combat readiness and capability and to continue regular joint military trainings and other combat training activities, execute mutual supply of the demanded weapons and jointly produce new military equipment.

I consider it possible to continue also the implementation of suggestions of the president of Belarus on preparing crew members of reequipped combat aircrafts of the army of Belarus for possible application of air-launched munitions with a special military unit.»

Also, Putin talked about transferring anti-aircraft missile systems C-400 and missile launchers Iskander to Belarus.

On December 20, 2022, in Minsk, at the seating of the Inter-Confessional Consultative Council under the Commissioner for Religious and Ethnic Affairs, the head of the Main Directorate of Ideology of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Leonid Kasinsky, spoke in front of the heads and representatives of all confessions of Belarus.

Kasinsky told the priests about the military and political situation and about the measures of national security protection. Here is what his speech was about:

–   NATO is increasing its presence in Europe creating new strike aviation groups, weapons and equipment depots;

–   NATO countries are conducting more trainings, including trainings held in the Belarusian direction;

–   the situation at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is complicated;

–   the neighboring countries are establishing terrorist organizations and conducting anti-Belarusian informational campaign.

On December 20, 2022, observers communicated that trains with Russian military equipment and servicemen moved to the Southern borders of Belarus. On that day, an echelon carrying 23 T-80 tanks departed from Palonka station near Baranavichy to Luninets. In Luninets, the echelon stood still for almost 24 hours, and then it went back without unloading the equipment.

On December 20, 2022, the head of the the Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, claimed that Russian airplanes were taking off from Belarusian airfields to set out Ukrainian future targets for their missile strikes. He also noted that the second motorized rifle division of the First Tank Army of the Russian Federation, an aviation group, as well as divisions armed with Iskander operational-tactical missile systems with ballistic missiles are currently in Belarus.

«That potential is sufficient to create a threat to Ukraine and to conduct tactical actions with limited objectives,» said General Nayev in response to the question if those forces were enough for another invasion from the territory of Belarus.

The head of the Joint Forces noted that Ukraine is closely monitoring what equipment Russia is deploying to the territory of Belarus.

«The level of military threat is gradually growing, but we also take adequate measures.  Besides that, the General Staff has provided for a significant build-up of troops in case a considerable increase in forces and equipment is observed on the opposite side,» General Nayev said.

On December 21, 2022, the Telegram channel «Community of railway workers of Belarus Live» reported that an echelon with military equipment arrive to Palonka railway station of Baranavichsky division of the Belarusian Railway. The echelon had departed from Zaslonovo station (Minsk department of the Belarusian Railway) on December, 20, at 6.20 a.m. It transported military equipment and personnel of the Armied Forces of Russia. The echelon consisted of 51 cars:

–   46 flat cars with military equipment: 31 tanks T-72Б3 and Т-80, 13 units of wheeled freight transport, one BTR-80 and one tracked engineering vehicle;

–   3 covered cars (with escort, equipment and VM);

–   2 passenger cars (with military personnel of about 100 persons).

The itinerary was: Zaslonovo – Orsha-East – Cherveno – Mogilev-2 – Osipovichy-1 – Slutsk – Baranavichy-Palesskiye – Baranavichy-Centralnye – Borovtsy – Palonka.

The train arrived to the destination on December, 21, at 5.30 a.m.

On December 21, 2022, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus published a video of Belarusian and Russian military conducting combat coordination activities at Belarusian training grounds. In the framework of combat coordination, the crews took firing positions and started target search for further destruction. During the training complex, the servicemen trained urban fighting including building- and room-clearing operations. In forests, military equipment management classes were held.

On December 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin and Aliaksandr Lukashenka claimed that airplanes of the Air Forces of Belarus have already been refurnished to be used with special (meaning, nuclear) combat element, and their crew teams are now undergoing the necessary retraining. Meanwhile, for many years, Russia has been reproaching NATO that such cooperation contradicts the letter and spirit of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Kommersant asked the MFA of Russia if such an upgrade of Belarusian aircrafts is not a violation of the NPT. They responded it was not.

The MFA commented that countermeasures taken by Russia and Belarus are being «taken in strict compliance with obligations under NPT».

«Currently, we are speaking about transferring Iskander-M complexes of double equipment with missiles with conventional warheads to the Republic of Belarus, and also about modifying a part of Belarusian aircrafts Su-25 to make them technically capable of carrying nuclear weapons. At the same time, we are not planning to transfer the technology of refurnishing aircrafts into nuclear weapon carriers,» said the representative of the MFA of RF, Maria Zakharova.

According to the response of the MFA, currently «it is not planned neither to physically equip Belarusian systems with nuclear warheads, nor to deploy such warheads in the Belarusian territory», «no provisions are made as for building any objects for storage of nuclear warheads in Belarus, as usual, they are going to be kept within the territory of Russia», and «training of Belarusian servicemen is going to be executed in Russian training centers according to programmes that exclude nuclear warheads operation topics».

On December 23, 2022, the assistant to the Belarusian Minister of Defence for ideological work in the armed forces, Leonid Kasinsky, said on TV that another batch of Tor-M2K air defense systems had arrived to Belarus from Russia. The batch of weapons was received in the framework of the existing intergovernmental agreement on military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Russia. Within the next couple of days, the said systems were supposed to arrive to military formations and units to which they are designated. The personnel had already passed the training and successfuly learned to operate those systems.

On December 23, 2022, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Alexander Volfovich announced new checks of combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Belarus. According to Volfovich, the previous check-up showed that Belarusian servicemen «were highly motivated to execute the given tasks excellently, in a quality manner».

«The checks will continue; a detailed analysis is being made. We are going to correct some things and to aim at elevating other things to a higher standard.  We will continue working. In general, the system is in force, it is functioning today,» claimed Volfovich.

On December 23, 2022, the head the Main Directorate of the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Aliaksandr Shalpuk, informed that in 2023 it is planned to draft 9 thousand people to reserve trainings. Also, no reserve training was planned for the rest of the current year. That was reported by Minsk Radio. According to Shalpuk, also in 2022 about 9 thousand people were drafted to reserve trainings.

Previously, the Defense Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, claimed that «over 130 thousand people have passed mobilization reserve trainings in Belarus in the last 20 years.» It means that the average estimate is about 6.5 thousand people per year. That is, in Belarus, the number of people participating in such trainings in 2022 exceeded the average number of any year in the previous 20 years by 2.5 thousand. In 2023, it is also planned to draft 2.5 thousand more people than in the last years before 2022.

On December 24, 2022, the Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, in his interview to New York Times, called the activity of the Russian army in Belarus a part of «disinformation campaign» and said that for now he does not see any actual preparation for invasion of Ukraine from the North.

Kyrylo Budanov said that the Ukrainian Intelligence cannot say unequivocally that an offensive from Belarus is not possible, but currently the agency has no information confirming the existence of such threat. According to the Chief of the Intelligence, there are no strike groups of Russian troops in Belarus, and the Belarusian training grounds are used to train recently mobilized Russian citizens which are sent to the Eastern Front in Donbas upon completion of the training course. Besides that, Budanov said, Russian army deployed in Belarus has insufficient armored vehicles in good condition to carry out an offensive.

He also noted, that Russia is artificially creating tension at the Northen border of Ukraine by organizing «carousels» with military trains. According to Budanov, not long before a whole train with Russian servicemen had arrived to Belarusian-Ukrainian borderline, but half a day later they went back.

On December 25, 2022, the assistant to the Belarusian Defense Minister for ideological work in the armed forces, Leonid Kasinsky, spoke on STV channel about the accelerated procedure of receiving anti-aircraft missile systems C-400  and Missile launchers Iskander.

According to him, Iskander and C-400 «can produce fire damage to both ground and air targets at longer ranges, at strategic depth».

«As of today, our servicemen, crew teams, squads, have passed a complete course of training at joint training and combat centers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.  As of today, such weaponry is on combat duty and is totally ready to perform tasks for the intended purpose. Besides that, during the meeting of the heads of the countries, the issue of reequipped air assault weapons able to accept special warheads was discussed. As the heads of the states said, today airplanes have been reequipped, and the training of aircrew teams and flight officers to task performing is going on,» Kasinsky added.

On December 25, 2022, head of the social protection and ideological work of the military commission of Minsk, Vladimir Ignatik, explained why  verification of records of registration data  of those liable for military service had been so tense in 2022.

«It is necessary to understand that all those liable for military service fall into three categories. Those who represent the main part of the military personnel, those in the reserve and those in unrestricted remnants. If we take the total number of those liable for military service in Minsk as 100%, then the main part constitutes 20%. 30% of the reserve are added to it. Therefore, year after year, gradually and on a planned basis, we’ve been working with those 30%. Today the head of the country gave us the task to verify data records of those in unrestricted remnants. We must complete that verification of the registration data records in a very short term of two months,» Ignatik explained.

He noted that it is a huge and extensive task. Previously, it was done in the term of the whole year, and today the task is to carry it out in two months. According to him, Belarusian have shown high consciousness: to date, about 85% of the registration data of those liable for military service have already been verified.

On December 26, 2022, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation said that the Russian servicemen making part of the Regional Grouping of Forces continue a course of intensive combat training at training grounds of the Armed Forces of Belarus.

The Russian military body published a video of training of troops of radiation, chemical and biological protection of the Western Military District and demonstrated a «lab on wheels», a machine of chemical  reconnaissance – RHM. Another demonstrated vehicle was TDA smoke machines used to generate aerosol smokescreens.

Chapter 5. January-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On January 03, 2023, the deputy commander for ideological work and a head of ideological work of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces, Anatoliy Bulavko, said on STV channel that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus considers cooperation with the NATO to be inexpedient.

“You know, there is such a notion as contractibility and pragmatism. After all, probably, these people – it’s difficult to call such people leaders of the state, because a leader of a state takes care of his state, of its people. We see something quite different in Europe. So, those leaders of the so-called European states, – yes, they are impossible to negotiate with. Because they cannot take any decisions by themselves”, he said.

According to the representative of the Ministry of Defense, NATO sees an enemy in Belarus and Russia, therefore, there are no prospects for cooperation with the alliance.

On January 04, 2023, at the railway station of Borisov, people noticed an unusual crawling text: “All male citizens aged from 18 to 60 must come to a military enlistment office or a village executive committee for verification of the registration data”.

On January 05, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus informed that buildup of Regional Grouping of Forces of Belarus and Russia continued. Military personnel, weapons, military and special hardware of the armed forces of Russia continued arriving to Belarus. Also, a joint flight training was planned.

“Military personnel, weapons, military and special hardware of the armed forces of Russia continue arriving to Belarus. Further combat coordination activities with the arriving divisions are planned to be held at training grounds of Belarus”, the communication said.

Besides that, a joint tactical flight training was planned to be held. A military formation of the Russian Aerospace Forces was going to participate in the event from the side of Russia.

“Joint training of the Belarusian and Russian parts of the Regional Grouping of Forces is comprehensive and covers not only the combat component, but also the supporting systems”, the ministry added.

On January 05, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus communicated that another supply of military deliveries arrived to Belarus from Russia: BTR-82A, BTR-80К, armored medical and maintenance-recovery vehicles.

On January 05, 2023, the head of the International Military Cooperation Department of Belarus, Valery Revenko, claimed that allegedly the aim of the enforcement of the Regional Grouping of Forces of Belarus and Russia was to strengthen the defense potential of the Union State.

“In the framework of the enforcement of the Regional Grouping of Forces, Russian divisions and weapons, as well as military and special hardware of the part of the grouping of forces arrive to Belarus. Further on, the air component will be increased to conduct the joint training. The aim of the enforcement of the grouping is to strengthen the defense potential of the Union State. The measures are not directed against third countries”, Revenko said.

On January 05, 2023, a huge column of military equipment was noticed on the railway in Minsky district. The echelon, according to eyewitnesses, was moving in the direction of Brest. Most cars were marked with the letter “Z”.

On January 06, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka arrived to the 230th Obuz-Lesnovsky Combined Arms Training Range where the Russian part of the joint grouping of forces is deployed.

As the Ministry of Defense said, representatives of the Russian Armed Forces reported to Lukashenka about completion of combat coordination of units and formations of the Regional Grouping of Forces. “At this stage, the divisions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are ready to perform tasks for the intended purpose”, the representative of the Russian Armed Forces reported.

On January 06, 2023, it became known that the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus conducted a methodological gathering with company commanders of special operations forces of Belarus. Among other things, the servicemen got acquainted with the Russian experience gained during invasion of Ukraine.

The gathering with special operation forces commanders took place at the premises of the 38th Brest Guards Separate Airborne Assault Brigade. There, they were told about the experience of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The covered issues included tactical medicine, provision of first medical aid to wounded and injured, work with means of reinforcement and in mixed combat formations, practicing ambushes, working with drones of various types.

On January 06, 2023, the State Security Committee (KGB) reported that starting from January, 5, it would be conducting in Minsk and Vitebsk regions a training to check combat readiness of the state bodies to reaction and interaction to acts of terrorism.

The participants of the activity include formations of the State Security Committee (the KGB), the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the State Border Committee, the Armed Forces, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus and other bodies. The scenario of the exercise provided for the use of military equipment.

On January 06, 2023, Belarus passed a large lot of individual first aid kits to Russian servicemen, reported the press service of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. As he claimed, his son Mikalai Lukashenka approved the first aid kits himself.

During his visit to Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Range, Aliaksandr Lukashenka handed individual first-aid kits to the Russian military, saying that they were elaborated, exclusively at the Belarusian enterprises and staffed with Belarusian products.

“My younger son brought me a NATO first-aid kit and ours. He said: “Dad, what is it?” and started opening it. He said: “It is people’s life”. He is studying at Biotechnological (faculty), and now they have it like doctors, but he is a doctor all his life. And he started showing me that. So, I began looking, in detail: NATO’s, Ukrainian, Polish, but they are based on NATO ones, and Russian, Belarusian. The latter are more practical.”

On January 06, 2023, one after another, two echelons with Russian soldiers and military equipment arrived to Belarus. They make part of the Regional Grouping of Forces, the Ministry of Defense informed.

The first train arrived in the morning; it delivered a batch of Russian trucks. The letter “Z”, a symbol of Russian aggression in the war against Ukraine, cultivated at the state level, could be noticed on some of the trucks.

A bit later, the second train from Russia arrived. According to the photo, it carried armed vehicles, fuel trucks and freight cars. The echelon arrived at Palonka station near Baranavichy, close to the 230th Obuz-Lesnovsky Combined Arms Training Range where the Russian part of the joint grouping of forces are deployed.

On January 06, 2023, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, claimed that deployment of the joint Regional Grouping of Forces with Russia is an “element of strategic deterrence” which is supposed to “cool hot heads in the West”.

“The grouping has successfully deployed, joint combat training classes have been organized both with the servicemen of the Russian Federation and the servicemen of the Republic of Belarus. Combat coordination, cooperation, working out the issues of the cooperation, everything as it should be. The Regional Grouping of Forces is one of the elements of the strategic deterrence. The element which today should probably cool hot heads in the West with its aggressive politics towards the Republic of Belarus, the Union State”, the Secretary of the Security Council said. According to him, Aliaksandr Lukashenka is personally controlling the issues of combat readiness of the Republic of Belarus, as well as the course and quality of the combat training.

On January 08, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of the Repulic of Belarus informed that from January, 16, till February, 1, a joint tactical flight exercise of aviation divisions of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia integrated into the Regional Grouping of Forces was going to be held.

The Ministry also informed, that the aviation component from the Military Space Forces of the Russian Federation had arrived to Belarus. Indeed, in the morning of the same day, observers informed that nine MI-8, MI-24 helicopters of the MSF of the RF, some of them with the symbol “Z”, landed in Belarus.

On January 09, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that the servicemen of the 7th Engineer Regiment of the North-Western Operational Command established a pontoon crossing across the Berezina River. Soon after that, a tank unit of the 19th Guards Separate Mechanized Brigade moved to the other side of the river by that crossing.

On January 09, 2023, it became known that Russia depoloyed another echelon with military equipment and soldiers to Belarus. According to the information, provided by railway workers, the echelon departed from the Russian Zaytsevka station on January, 4, and arrived to the Belarusian Baranavichy-Palesskiye station on the afternoon of January, 8.

The echelon consisted of about 30 flat cars carrying tracked and wheeled military vehicles, 2 covered cars with equipment and 2 passenger cars with the personnel – about 100 people.

On January 10, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that the activities of the verification of the registration data had been completed in Belars: 95% of people liable for military service had passed it. The ministry reminded that the verification had been carried out from the middle of October to December, 2022, on the orders of Lukashenka.

They claimed that Belarusians “treated the activities of enforcement of the defense potential of the country with high responsibility and understanding”: according to the Ministry of Defense, over 95% of those liable for military service had passed the verification of the registration data.

On January 10, 2023, a company commander of a Belarusian military unit was convicted for abuse of power. For violence against his subordinates, that included shooting a pneumatic gun and using special means, he was sentenced to 5 years of imprisonment (a year less under amnesty), a fine and was stripped out of his rank.

As the ministry said, from February, 2021, to January, 2022, the defendant was a company commander in a Belarusian military unit. With the aim to achieve discipline in the unit entrusted to him, he used physical violence against soldiers, including use of a pneumatic gun and special means. 18 conscript soldiers were recognized as victims in the case.

In court, the defendant pleaded guilty and repented of his deeds. He was found guilty under Part 2. Art. 455 of the Criminal Code (Abuse of authority or excessive use of power combined with violence or committed with the use of a weapon) and sentenced to 5 years of imprisonment.

On January 11, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that anti-aircraft missile units “advanced to designated areas and were put on combat duty”. “According to the plan of the Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, air-defense build-up of the Republic of Belarus and Russia has been carried out”, the communication said.

On January 11, 2023, a sudden check of combat rediness started in the 72nd Guardia Joint Training Centre for Warrant Officers and Junior Professionals. The activity was held on the decision of the defense minister. The ministry disclosed no further detailes.

On January 11, 2023, it became known that an echelon from Russia carrying military hardware and about 750 of manpower arrived to the railway station of Chepino (Vitebsk). According to the information, provided by railway workers, another echelon departed from the Russian Omsk station on January, 3, and arrived to Chepino station in Vitebsk on January, 9.

The echelon consisted of 40 cars:  15 passenger cars with about 750 of manpower, 10 freight cars carrying equipment and ammunition and 15 flat cars loaded with tracked and wheeled military vehicles.

On January 12, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that a Commission of the Ministry of Defense of Russia headed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Ground Forces, an Army General, Oleg Salyukov, arrived to Belarus.

“Military units and divisions of the Russian component of the Regional Grouping of Forces deployed in the training grounds of the Armed Forces of Belarus, were inspected”, the communication said.

It was also noted, that during the inspection “the quality of combat coordination training classes was checked and the readiness to perform tasks for the intended purpose in the interests of provision of military security of the Union State was evaluated”.

On January 12, 2023, it became known that an echelon with military equipment and military personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation went from Belarus to Russia. The destination was the station of Liskinsky department of the South-East railway of the Russian Railway.

The military echelon N. 961 departed on January, 11, from Chepino station of the Vitebsk Division of Belarusian Railway to the Russian station of Rossosh. The echelon consisted of 48 cars, including:

– 8 passenger cars (with military personnel of the Armed Forces of the RF: of about 400 persons).

– 3 covered cars (with equipment);

– 37 flat cars (with loaded tracked and wheeled military vehicles).

On January 12, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed an Ordinance to appoint the Major General Aleksandr Bas the head of the Main Combat Training Directorate of the Armed Forces of Belarus. Before that, Aleksandr Bas held the post of Deputy Commander of the Western Operational Command of the Armed Forces.

On January 13, 2023, the military commissioner of the Brest region, Oleg Konovalov, said that people liable to military service that had not passed verification of the registration data, might be restricted from leaving Belarus.

– As for those less than 3% who have not passed the verification, we are ready to work with those people till the end of January. One can turn to any military enlistment office by any communication means. <…> And starting from the month of February, those who have not passed the verification will most probably be restricted from leaving Belarus or maybe imposed some other restrictions on, – Oleg Konovalov said.

On January 14, 2023, it became known that two echelons with Russian servicemen and military equipment arrived to Belarus. According to estimates of the railway workers, they brought about 200 Russian servicemen and 91 units of military vehicles to the country.

Two Russian echelons departed from Kantemirovka station in Voronezh region on January 8 and 9 of the current year. The first one consisted of 43 cars: one passenger (about 50 people) and 42 flat cars. It arrived to Slonim railway station in Grodno region on January, 11, at 00:15. It brought at least two Ural fuel trucks, two BTRs, six trucks (Ural and KamAZ), as well as one trailer (generator), one truck crane KamAZ, two MAZ fuel trucks and one UAZ Patriot. Some of the vehicles had “Z” symbols on them.

The following day, January, 12, at 08:00 a.m., another echelon of the RF Armed Forces arrived to Slonim from Kantemirovka; it consisted of 52 cars: three passenger (about 150 people) and 49 flat cars.

On January 16, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus informed that a joint tactical flight exercise of aviation divisions of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia integrated into the Regional Grouping of Forces had started. A military formation of the Russian Aerospace Forces was participating in the event from the side of Russia.

Among other things, the following is planned to be trained during the exercise: aerial reconnaissance, joint air patrols along the border, air support of the grouping of forces, landing of a tactical airborne assault, cargo delivery and evacuation of the wounded.

“To provide the due order of conducting the exercise, all airfields and training grounds of the Air Forces and the Air-Defense Forces of the Republic of Belarus are utilized”, the ministry reported.

On January 17, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that front-line supersonic fighter-bombers Su-34 of the Military Space Forces of Russia arrived to Belarus.

The ministry reported that Su-34 arrived to participate in the joint tactical flight exercise of divisions of the armed forces of the two countries making part of the aviation component of the Regional Grouping of Forces.

On January 19, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that the aviation of Belarus and Russia started performing tasks for the intended purpose in the framework of the second stage of the joint tactical flight exercise of the armed forces.

From Machulishchy airfield, an AEW airplane A-50 carried out aerial reconnaissance tasks and control of multi-purpose fighter crew.

From Baranavich airfield, aviation crews conducted fighter air cover of the significant military and state objects.

From Lida airfield, aviation crews trained surmounting of enemy antiaircraft defenses and striking airfields and helicopter landing sites of a simulated enemy.

On January 20, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that the joint tactical flight exercise of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia continued to be held in Belarus.

On January, 20, air crews carried out combat employment at the Ruzhansky training ground. During the exercise, the aviation trained suppression of the air defense means, destruction of command points, munitions depots and manpower locations of a simulated enemy. Strike groups of the attack and bombardment aviation were covered by fighter jets.

On January 20, 2023, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus claimed that the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Public Health were working on corrections of health requirements for people supposed to join military service and the list of health conditions making people considered unfit for military service. The corrections will affect all the military categories: conscripts, contract soldiers, reservists, students of military higher educational establishments.

– It was motivated by a number of reasons. First of all, by the great number of petitions arriving from citizens who consider that the health demands are too high and they do not allow young people make their dream to become a military man true, – claimed the Deputy Chief of Medical Unit of the Main Military Medical Clinical Centre of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Sviatlana Kashura.

On January 23, 2023, the press service of Aliaksandr Lukashenka informed that Aliaksandr Lukashenka had approved two decisions regarding protection of the state border by border gurads on the ground and by antiaircraft defense in the air.

“The main efforts of border protection this year will be focused on the Ukrainian direction, as well as at those sections where new external challenges and threats to border safety are likely to appear”, the communication said.

The State Border Committee called the following among the main tasks for the year 2023: “increase in combat readiness of the border service authorities by improving combat training and provision of the formations, as well as build-up of combat capabilities of maneuverable groups, development of the potential of the border committee in the sphere of detection of external threats to border safety, improvement of the state border infrastructure, including erection of new border control lines and their equipment with the most modern technical means at the most dangerous sections”.

On January 23, 2023, the Deputy Minister of the Internal Affairs, the commander of the Interior Ministry troops, Mikalai Karpiankou, told the newspaper “Spetsnaz” (Special Forces) that in the year 2023 had been announced a year of creation of special units and their professional development in the Interior Ministry troops.

Karpiankou told the edition about the motivation of those who got enlisted into the separate detachment of special purpose “Rys” created in December.

– Fighters that possess a spirit of the special forces, a steel rod, who passed the qualification tests for the right to wear a maroon beret – they love their Motherland, they are ready to defend her and they hate our enemies. Those who wishes us evil, those who want to come here and create atrocities, who destroy Soviet memorials, dig out graves, torture POWs… We hate them and are ready to fight, to destroy the enemies. And we do not need any other motivation. We have the desire to defend our Motherland, — Karpiankou said. According to him, the average age of the detachment’s members is 22-26.

He said that in the nearest 6 months another detachment was going to be formed that would work “bounded to the Southern direction, in Gomel region”. Also, Karpiankou said that “priceless specialists” were going to train the detachments.

– We have an outstanding training center. We have renovated it. Now, Russians, Kazakhstanis, Uzbeks envy us: there is no similar training centre anywhere. It will become a special purpose training center with a huge team of instructors with combat experience in Syria, Livia, Ukraine. Priceless specialists are going to pass their knowledge to the fighters of the separate detachment of special purpose “Rys”, work the detachment in, and then try to implement the results into all Interior Ministry troops, as well as among conscripted soldiers.

On January 23, 2023, it became known that district executive committees of Minsk regions had send to the subordinate structures and organizations the demand to provide lists of the employed and reserved citizens for the year 2022.

The demand to provide such information is explained by the necessity to “execute provisions of the legislation in the sphere of military registration and reservation of citizen liable for military duty according to the Instruction “On the procedure of reservation of citizens in reserve and working in state bodies, organizations independently from the forms of ownership, in the period of mobilization and during a wartime”.

They have to complete a special table with the number of employed and of those employed and liable for military duty with division into generals, officers, warrant officers, sergeants and soldiers, as well as by their civil specialties or managing statuses.

A separate division of the table should provide information about the number of the booked citizens liable for military duty, that is, of those who won’t be called to arms in the period of mobilization and in wartime. It is suggested that the reserved citizens should by divided not just into generals, officers, sergeaunts and soldiers, but also by their age.

On January 24, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus communicated that it had started depreservation of armored vehicles from storage bases. It is noted, that it is done in order to conduct joint combat coordination activities of the Regional Grouping of Forces of Belarus and Russia.

“The division of the 11th Separate Mechanized Brigade started the procedure of removal of equipment from long-term storage”, the communication says.

On January 24, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed the Ordinance № 19 “About military discharge and call-up for fixed-term military service, service in the reserves”, his press service informed.

The document provides for the call-up for fixed-term military service, service in the reserves, in February-March 2023, of male citizens of Belarus, who have turned 18 years old by the day of conscription and have no right to deferment, citizens of the conscription age who have lost a right to deferment, as well as of citizens from among students of the first year of the higher educational establishments of agricultural profile, having a right to deferment from conscription for the purpose of continuation of their education, but willing to serve in the military, to the service in the reserves.

On January 25, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus issued a warning about conduction of tactical flight exercise of Belarusian and Russian troops in the country; in the framework of the exercise aviation divisions performed tasks from all airfields of the Air Forces and the Air-Defense Forces.

In particular, the exercise was taking place at Ruzhansky training ground. During the exercise, the aviation trained suppression of the air defense means, destruction of command points, munitions depots and manpower locations of a simulated enemy. Also, anticipatory reconnaissance of alternate airfields and helicopter landing sites was conducted, where aviation divisions were deployed by air and ground echelons. The Ministry of Defense confirmed the take-off of the Russian airborne warning and control system, AWACS aircraft A-50 from Machulishchy airfield.

On January 25, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that in the framework of combat coordination of the Regional Grouping of Forces of Belarus and Russia, the check of combat readiness of military units and divisions of the Belarusian army continued. The check was carried out by the orders of Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

“The activities are comprehensive and allow to determine abilities of commanders to manage the subordinate military units and divisions in different conditions and circumstances, as well as their readiness to perform  tasks for the intended purpose within the prescribed time limits”, the communication says.

The general administration of the activities was entrusted to the Secretariat of the Security Council of Belarus.

On January 25, 2023, the Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, Andrey Lukyanovich, reported that pilots of the Russian-Belarusian Regional Grouping of Forces were capable to provide combat at all altitude and speed ranges.

– The rehearsal showed that we are capable to provide combat at all altitude and speed ranges. I would like to note, that all the work is done in joint combat formations with our Russian colleagues. Everything is thoroughly analyzed; we make certain adjustments. However, even without studying objective control materials, I can say that I am very content with the work of the aviation, – Lukyanovich said.

On January 26, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that Belarus and Russia were holding joint tactical flight exercise. They trained deployment of aircrafts to operational airfields, inspected air defense forces, and carried out airdrop missions.

“In the framework of the joint tactical flight exercise of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia, questions of redeployment of air echelons of Belarusian and Russian aviation divisions to operational airfields are being worked out, including those in the territory of Russia”, the communication said.

Also, air crews acted as control targets to check the air defense forces on duty. At Brestsky training ground, helicopter crews provided for performing tasks of paradrop and direct deployment of special operations forces units.

On January 26, 2023, head of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus, Anatoly Lapo, on the regime’s TV channel Belarus-1, complained of the tense situation at the borders of Belarus with Latvia, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine. He said that only a year or two ago the situation was peaceful and calm, and blamed the neighbors of having changed it.

– From our side, we are doing everything, but the adjacent side is getting back at us for the visa-free regime and other good undertakings, they want to bite us somehow, – Lapo complained.

According to what he says, during the last year, 463 cases of drones flying along the Belarusian border were recorded.

– They are conducting reconnaissance. Army aviation appeared near our borders, – Lapo revolted and noted that before the border guards had been informing the adjacent side about the forthcoming flights.

On January 31, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that a joint HQ exercise of the Unified Command of the Regional Grouping of Forces was about to start.

In the course of the week, representatives of the military establishment of the two states were going to work out questions of joint planning of troops deployment on the basis of experience of recent years’ armed conflicts on the topic: “Decision making on deployment of the Regional Grouping of Forces in the interests of provision of military security of the Union State”.

“The complex of joint operational training activities is aimed to increase compatibility of military administration bodies of the two countries, and is another stage of preparation for the joint operational training “Union Shield-2023” that is going to be held in the Russian Federation in September, 2023”, the Ministry of Defense reported.

Chapter 6. February-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On February 1, 2023, it was announced that Belarus military started independently exploiting Iskander operational-tactical missile systems.

An Iskander system consists of: a self-propelled launcher, a transporter-loader vehicle, a command and staff vehicle, a vehicle of regulations and maintenance, an information preparation unit and a life-support machine.

In a battle zone, Iskanders are able to destroy air and missile defense, command posts and communications nodes, airplanes and helicopters in airfields, objects of infrastructure, troop concentrations equipment and facilities, other operational-tactical guided missile systems, division artillery, ships.

On February 1, 2023, the Missile and Artillery Troops Commander, Colonel Ruslan Chekhov said that on the basis of the analysis of the experience of war in Ukraine, Belarus is modernizing the Soviet-model artillery systems as well as modifying the missile and artillery training system.

«The experience of the special military operation in Ukraine confirms that the Soviet-type artillery systems that are on duty in the corps – 2S1 Gvozdika, 2S3 Akatsiya, 2S5 Hyacinth, BM-21 Grad, show very good results on condition they are modernized. Such improvements are currently conducted at the defense industry enterprises of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus», he said.

According to him, several directions of the missile and artillery development are being currently implemented. The first is development of high-precision weapons.

«We have received an Iskander operational-tactical missile system. At the present moment, enterprises of the state Military-Industrial Committee are working on fine-tuning of already modernized system of volley fire «Polonaise-M», said Ruslan Chekhov.

The second direction is the development of an automated control system of tactical level artillery units. The system elements in the corps are presented by a complex of command vehicles of fire control of artillery units «Centurion». The command system is constantly developing, research and development works are being conducted to design new models.

On February 2, 2023, it became known that at the end of January, Shevchenkivsk District Court in Kyiv sentenced a 22-year-old Belarusian national Maksym Ziaziulchyk to 10 years’ imprisonment for fighting against Ukraine as a mercenary in the so-called ‘Redut [or Redoubt] private military company’. The verdict published in the Register of Judgments made some details of the convict’s biography public. Among other things, the young man stated in court that before becoming a mercenary, he had served under a contract in the fifth separate special mission brigade of the Armed Forces of Belarus, and that he had learned of the ‘recruitment’ of mercenaries for Redut from the commander of his military unit.

«From the commander of his military unit he learned that the Redut private military company in the Russian Federation was recruiting mercenaries for a certain amount of money and decided to join the said PMC. In order to do that, he had traveled to Tambov in Russia where two representatives of the Redut private military company met him», says the verdict.

Then, the mercenaries were transported to Trigulay training ground situated in the homonymous village. There, Ziaziulchyk signed the relevant contract, with the amount offered – 3,400 US dollars a month. He was assigned to the division «Veterans» as a machine gunner.

After a three-day training at the training ground, on July 21, 2022, Ziaziulchyk was sent to Izium in Kharkiv oblast which was then under Russian occupation.

Ziaziulchyk was to defend a communication unit and assist the messenger team. On July 30, 2022, 9 days after his arrival to Ukraine, Ziaziulchyk was wounded in a battle near Krasnopillia in Donetsk region. On August 15, 2022, he was sent to Svatove in Luhansk region, and after that to the village of Korovii Yar near Liman in Donetsk region.  On September 19, 2022, near Yatskivka, Limansky district, Ziaziulchyk was wounded once again, on his leg. As he said in court, he was inflicted the injury by his own commander. On the same day the Belarusian national was taken prisoner.

In court, Ziaziulchyk pleaded guilty and said he repented of his actions. He was found guilty under Part. 4 Art. 447 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine for taking part in military conflict in Ukraine as a mercenary and sentenced to 10 years of imprisonment.

On February 2, 2023, in Belarus, a joint tactical flight exercise of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia was completed.

«High consistency in the work of the headquaters was demonstrated, as well as confident joint actions of Belarusian and Russian pilots. The aviation component of the Regional Grouping of Forces completed a wide range of practical tasks», the Ministry of Defense informed.

The ministry underlined that the training «was aimed at provision of security of the Union State and was exclusively of the defense character».

To remind, the training had started on January 16, 2023. A military formation of the Russian Aerospace Forces was participating in the event from the side of Russia.

On February 3, 2023, the STV channel said that a patriotic action «My letter to a soldier» was being held in Belarus. Schoolchildren were suggested to write letters to the veterans of the Great Patriotic War and to the Belarusian military. At the same time, kids do not quite understand what they are supposed to do.

«On the paper there are words of gratitude to those who fought during the Great Patriotic War. Also, there are wishes to those who are defending our borders now. Children used a creative approach to the marathon. The messages have been done not only in a written form, the schoolchildren are also making drawings and postcards», the report says.

As it turned out, the action had been initiated by the Main Education Department under Minsk City Executive Committee. It is noted that the action was dedicated not only to the holiday of the 23 February, but also to the 85th anniversary of Minsk region.

Children aged 6-9 were told to draw a picture, schoolchildren aged 11-13 were suggested to write a letter, and teenagers from 14 to 17 – to shoot a video.

«Letters to the military men can contain congratulations, words of parting and gratitude for the service in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus. As a result of the action, the materials will be sent to military units situated in the territory of Minsk region, as well as handed to the veterans of the Great Patriotic War», says the document.

The expenses on the action are financed by the regional and (or) local budgets.

On February 4, 2023, a joint resolution of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Public Health was published and entered into force, making amendments to the instruction of determining requirements to the state of health of citizens subject to military duty.

Now, Belarusians with the body mass over 100 kg are found unfit for military service in special operation forces of the Armed Forces. Before, the limit was 90 kg. Besides that, young people with obesity of the second degree and body mass index 37 kg/m² are recognized as fit for compulsory military service. Before that, they received the status of NGM (unfit for military service in peace time, partially fit for military service in war time).

Also, according to the new instruction, people with myopia of any eye in one of the meridians from 6.0 to 8.0 diopters, with hemorrhoids without prolapse of nodes, with mild form of bronchial asthma (or without attacks for over 5 years), with some forms of platypodia or foot deformity are also found fit for military service (for more details, read the graph «г» of the clarifications under subparagraph 13.5 of the instruction).

The amendments to the instruction also affected the conscripts with diseases of the endocrine system, eating disorders, diseases of the nervous system and heart, skin diseases, spinal diseases.

On February 5, 2023, the Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, Andrey Lukyanovich, claimed that «a few weeks ago» our country received a new battery of the Tor-M2 air defense missile system. He also announced delivery of new helicopters and fighter planes «in the near future».

According to Lukyanovich, helicopters Mi-35M will be supplied to Belarus this year. He informed that four helicopters will have arrived to the Belarusian airfields by April, and in total the country is supposed to receive a detachment of such military hardware. The pilots have already trained to be able to operate it.

He added that purchase and delivery of Su-30SM fighter aircrafts had been planned. The radio-technical troops will receive low-altitude radar stations Rosa of Belarusian production, Vostok radar stations.

«Also, a delivery of a significant amount of aviation weapons has been planned. Our Armed Forces are combat-ready, combat-capable, and we are developing them professionally in order to ensure the safety of our country», Lukyanovich assured.

On February 6, 2023, an unexpected check of combat readiness started at the Military Academy. Today, on the decision of the Defense Minister of the Republic of Belarus, an unexpected check of combat readiness started at the educational institution «Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus», says the the communication of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.

On February 7, 2023, it became known that the Academy of Public Administration under the Aegis of the President of the Republic of Belarus, had prepared a new issue of methodological materials for members of information-propaganda groups. For the month of February, all the ideologists of the country had to educate citizens about the peaceful Belarus resisting to a hostile half-fascist West, about wonderful state of the Belarusian army and wise strategical decisions of the commander-in-chief Lukashenka. The methodological guide was dedicated to the holiday of the 23 February and to the 105th anniversary of the Armed Forces of Belarus. Ideologists have to educate citizens that the Belarusian army started its history just from the year 1918 and draws on the roots of the USSR tradition only – the history of wars and battles of the times of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania is not mentioned at all. Also, the methodological guide underlines, that systematic and conceptual construction of the army in the independent Belarus was started only by Aliaksandr Lukashenka in 1994. It was he who «set the task of ensuring the military security of the country, defined the strategy and direction of reforms of the Armed Forces».

In the result of almost three decades of Lukashenka’s efforts, provision of military security has become «the most important factor of development of Belarus». This is what is put directly into the title of the methodological guide.

Description of enemies that are trying to set the Belarusian and the world stability on fire takes several paragraphs. The name of the enemies is «the collective West»: «The collective West is intensifying efforts to create a unipolar world, actively suppressing dissidence and promoting Russophobic views. The European security architecture is experiencing a serious systemic crisis. The lack of understanding on a wide range of crucial issues is evident».

On February 9, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka called for strengthening the IT-company of the Military Academy by attracting the best students there. He said this during a meeting with Belarusian scientists.

«You were right to say that we have to drag the best people there», Lukashenka supported one of the participants of the event. – «People in uniform, they are diligent, loyal, reliable. No matter how they dandle you, drag you, [offer] lots of money and so on, you are working very steadily in that respect. We have to strengthen that company. The product must be modern and needful for the country».

Lukashenka instructed the Minister of Education, Andrei Ivants, «to delve into the work of that company, and to support it from the educational point of view, if needed».

On February 9, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka made personnel appointments in the military block.

Colonel Vadim Romaniv was appointed head of communications of the Armed Forces – head of the General Staff Communications Department.  Colonel Dmitry Bitny was appointed Deputy Commander of the Western Operations Command.

Also, Lukashenka relieved Major General Igor Korol of the post of First Deputy Chief of General Staff and dismissed him from military service to the reserve due to his age with the right to wear military uniforms and insignia.

Igor Korol had been appointed First Deputy Chief of General Staff on February 21, 2020. Before that, he had held the post of the Deputy Chief of General Staff for combat management.

On February 10, 2023,  Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry, Dmitry Pantus, at the Board office spoke about key directions of the development.

«Unmanned combat air vehicles, as well as means of combating them, are a key direction of our development. In autumn, we demonstrated our achievements in that direction to the head of the state. Today, we have concentrated our work on organizing a serial production of those articles», Pantus said.

According to him, two models have been supplied to the Armed Forces, and another two are going to be supplied this year. «We are finishing testing the product and are concentrating our work on the serial production», head of the office said.

Besides that, a modernized tank T-72B was presented at Obuz-Lesnovsky Training Range.

On February 11, 2023, military commissar of the Kletsk district, Yury Pihuleuski, said that those drafted to the reserve training are first of all people who had never served in the army before.

Pihuleuski considers that everyone «is obliged to feel like a soldier at least once in his life». According to him, those who had never served before, would take the military oath during their reserve training «which is highly responsible for a man, already not just a defender of his family, but also of his Fatherland».

On February 11, 2023, it became known that military town and a training ground are going to be built in Gomel region. That is stipulated in the state investment program for the year 2023. The decree approving it was signed by Lukashenka on February 7.

The construction of the military town should begin in 2023 and finish in 2027. For that purpose, 500 thousand BYN are going to be allocated from the budget in 2023, and 10 million and 40 million BYN correspondingly in 2024 and 2025 in «forcasted prices».

On May 27, 2022, the head of the International Military Cooperation Department of Belarus, Valery Revenko said, that «establishment of the Southern Operations Command implies not only creation of a military command body, but also of a number of military units and divisions according to the various branches of the Armed Forces».

On February 13, 2023, it became known that a question of opening another city cadet school in Minsk is being discussed. First Deputy Chairman of the Education Committee of the Minsk City Executive Committee, Lyudmila Borisenko, talked about it.

She said, that there is one cadet school functioning in Minsk now, it’s situated in Tsikotsky Str., 57. However, as it is so popular, there appeared a need to open a second one. According to Borisenko, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Internal Affairs are going to work together on opening a new cadet school. It has not been decided yet in which building it is going to be open; however, it is not going to be a new one.

On February 16, 2023, the press service of the State Authority for Military Industry informed that Belarusian servicemen had successfully completed another stage of testing of the Sapphire multipurpose grenade launcher complex.

The grenade launcher complex is designed to combat lightly armored and unarmored targets, to destroy enemy personnel wearing means of personal body armor, staying in bunkers, earth-and-timber strongpoints, field type light shelters, urban and rural facilities.

According to the State Authority for Military Industry, Sapphire grenade launcher complex is equipped with a multipurpose war head that allows to use the item in closed premises.

On February 17, 2023, in the territory of Buda-Koshelevo district of Gomel region a training took place with the aim to check combat readiness of the state bodies to react and interact to acts of terrorism.

Uniformed agencies of the country participated in the activities of the training. The scenario of the exercise provided for the use of military equipment and traffic limitation.

On February 20, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka  held a Security Council meeting. One of the documents submitted for consideration by the Security Council, was the draft law «On People’s Militia».

Lukashenka explained that an effective national defense system had been built in Belarus, and the basis of it is the army. Fight with crime, defense of public order and public security are the sphere of interest of the Ministry of Internal Affairs both in peace and in war time. In order to ensure functioning of the state bodies, organizations, economic entities, infrastructure of Belarus in war time, territorial troops have been created.

«Yet, the situation is not simple. I have already said multiple times: every man (and not only man) should at least know how to handle weapons. At least, to protect his family, his house, his native corner of land in case of necessity and, if needed, his country, as without it there will be no corner, no house, nothing else. Many understand that», Lukashenka underlined.

On February 20, 2023, the Defense Minister, Viktor Khrenin, said that the main task of the people’s militia will be defense of their local area and law enforcement together with the police. The draft law «On People’s Militia» was elaborated by the Ministry of Defence together with the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

The draft law provides that the composition, number and tasks of the people’s militia will be defined by local authorities.

«However, the main task of the people’s militia remains, which is to defend first of all their own homes, property and to carry out tasks to ensure law and order together with the police», the Defense Minister said.

According to the law, volunteers that join the people’s militia, will be placed at their place of residence and carry out their work tasks. Their employer will have the right to release those citizens from work with the preservation of their wages and jobs.

On February 21, 2023, the head of the International Military Cooperation Department of Belarus, Valery Revenko, held a briefing for attaches on the issues of defense of foreign states. 18 representatives of other countries participated in the event.

The representative of the Ministry of Defense stated that the situation around Belarus is estimated by the Belarusian regime as«crisis, implying direct threats to military security».

«Currently, in Europe, over 60 thousand USA troops are deployed, equipped with modern strike weapons, as well as about 34 thousand NATO troops, in the framework of the so-called strengthening of the Eastern flank of the alliance and operations and missions carried out in Eastern Europe; over 22 thousand of them are deployed directly in Poland and Baltic countries», Revenko claimed, underlining that those forces «in the shortes time can be formed into strike groups of troops for their usage in the Belarusian direction».

He also spoke about the war in Ukraine and mentioned that «in the immediate vicinity of the Belarusian-Ukrainian part of the state border, a signigicant grouping of the Ukrainian army is situated».

On February 21, 2023, the head of the International Military Cooperation Department of Belarus, Valery Revenko, spoke about the forthcoming military exercise «Shield of the Union».

According to him, «close cooperation with the Russian Federation at the strategical level will be continued in the current year as well». Over 150 joint activities are planned to be held.

«Among central activities of operational and combat training, a joint operational training of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation «Shield of the Union – 2023» is going to be held in the territory of Russia from September 22 to 26», Revenko added.

On February 21, 2023, the Armed Forces of Lithuania said they did not see a threat in the movement of military hardwear across Belarus. That is how the press service reacted to the information that in the night of February 20 to 21, a column of military hardware moved towards the Lithuanian border in Belarus.

In the night of February 20 to 21, in Belarus, four columns of military hardware moved towards the border with Lithuania. They consisted of Ural and KamAZ military trucks, UAZ off-road vehicles, fuel trucks, infantry fighting vehicles.

In the morning of February 21, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense informed that on Tuesday, one military unit of a mechanized formation, reinforced with air-defense units, «advanced to the designated area».

«The military personnel have a number of training and combat tasks to perform, including organization of protection and defense of the region, conducting its engineering equipment and implementing a set of measures to organize logistic and technical support», the Ministry of Defense said without specifying where the column was moving.

On February 22, 2023, it became known that Belarusian border guards were conducting planned exercise. The ministry informed that the exercise had started as long ago as February 17, 2023, and were going to be held for two other weeks.

The aim of the exercise was to check readiness of the units to perform practical actions of deployment and operation of command posts outside the places of permanent deployment. The main tasks were improvement of combat and mobilization readiness of territorial bodies of the border service, increase in the level of readiness of the operational command to manage regular and attached units in different conditions.

On February 22, 2023, the Defense Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, claimed that Belarusians want peace, and the military do everything to provide it.

According to the minister, Belarusian servicemen guarded sections of the state border, conducted combat coordination of the regional grouping, carried out combat duty on the ground and in the air. «The Armed Forces of Belarus perform all those tasks with the only aim: so that no thought would arise to come with war to our land». «We raise our children, build cities, live a free, independent, peaceful life, help those who need help. And we do it without asking anything in return», Khrenin summerized.

On February 23, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense published a video of «girls» congratulating Vitebsk paratroopers on the occasion of the Defender of the Fatherland Day.

In the video, several military men with roses in their hands are listening to «fiery speeches» of the girls. The video ends with a chorus of congratulations of all the five girls with red roses in their hands.

On February 24, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus informed that in the framework of military readiness activities one of the missile units was advancing to a designated area.

«The military personnel has to work out a range of activities to equip the area of launching positions and prepare the military hardware to combat use», the communication says.

On February 25, 2023, the Chariman of the Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, informed that participants of the people’s militia will possess fire arms and keep them at home. That is provided by the draft law «On People’s Militia» discussed with the participation of Lukashenka.

The people’s militia is going to be organized by the local authorities and led by units of internal affairs. In case of martial law, the tasks of the militia will be to defend order, fight banditism and marauding, sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

«They will be given fire arms. The weapons will be kept on them. They will stay and eat at home. It is a possibility to legitimize desires of citizens to secure their homes, the place where they live, to provide order for their families, their children on the ground», Volfovich said.

He added that people will serve in the people’s militia on voluntary basis, without being dismissed from their jobs. On the decision of their employer, they are going to be released from work for the time of preforming their duties in the militia squads. At the same time, they are going to keep the salary.

At the same time, service in the people’s militia does not exempt a citizen from military service: if needed, those who are fit can be subject to mobilization to the army.

On February 26, 2023, it became known that the military echelon 962 departed from Slonim to Matveyev Kurgan in Rostov region in Russia. It consisted of 51 cars with military personnel and hardware.

Five of them were passenger cars with military personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation that had completed training in Belarus. Another 43 flat cars carried military hardware: command-staff vehicles R-149BMR «Couch-B» and R-149MA1, as well as tilted Ural trucks and fuel trucks of the same brand, and besides that, an APE-5 mobile command post. Three other covered cars carried amunition.

On February 26, 2023, it became known that several explosions happened in Machulishchy airfield. According to messages in local chats, loud sounds were heard around 8.00 – 9.40 a.m. Some people say they heard a strong exploision at night.

After that, as the dwellers of the nearby localities in the local Telegram chats said, a large accumulation of the military was seen near the military airfield. According one user, the Investigation Committee and an ambulance came to the airfield, and «military and machine gunners were standing there». In another chat, people wrote that Sportivnaya street was «all crammed with military vehicles with soldiers in armor», and «recently seven military vehicles with machine gunners have moved in that direction».

On February 26, 2023, a representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Artem Butorin, said that organizations calling to unleash civil war in the country, as well as traitors, betrayers and and saboteurs will be classified as threats to the national safety of Belarus.

«Such subjects appeared as traitors, betrayers and saboteurs, whose actions or inaction inflict direct damage to the military security of the Republic of Belarus. Well, speaking of the external sources of threats, then together with the traditionally hostile to us states and military and political blocks, we distinguish also non-governmental actors, including international terrorist organizations», he summarized.

On February 27, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a meeting to discuss issues of financing the purchase of military purpose products.

«The dynamics of military threats to the Republic of Belarus makes us keep a pulse of the domestic military-industrial production. The topic of the today’s meeting is issues of financing the purchase of military purpose products for the needs of the uniformed agencies. I want to note, that despite unprecedented sanctions pressure, we produce enough weapons and military equipment for the needs of the Belarusian army», Lukashenka said.

He underlined that everything the army needs, Belarus «simply gets» from Russia.

On February 27, 2023, the Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry, Dmitry Pantus, after the meeting with Aliaksandr Lukashenka on the issues of  financing the purchase of military purpose products claimed that enterprises of the military-industrial complex of Belarus are working on organization of serial production of unmanned drones.

«As of today, our work is concentrated on organizing a serial production of this type of drones. And of course, certain models undergo certain modifications and are being modernized», the head of the MIC said.

According to him, specific types of UAVs were determined together with the Ministry of Defense and with military formations, and they are going to be produced in Belarus and supplied to the domestic uniformed agencies.

On February 28, 2023, in Belarus, a formal training started with participants of territorial defense forces.

«During four days, theoretical and practical activities with the officers of executive committees and military conscription and enlistment offices, administrations of offices receiving mobilization resources will be held in all administrative districts; availability and storage conditions of existing stocks will be checked», the Ministry of Defense specified.

The ministry underlined that huge attention would be paid to the training of individuals subject to military service during the held activities: a one-day reserve training is supposed to provide basics and procedure of forming territorial defense troops.

Chapter 7. March-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On March 1, 2023, information appeared that on February 27, military train No. 962, which included 50 wagons, left the Polonka station in the Baranovichi district. Ten of those wagons were passenger ones, in which, according to the calculations of the railway workers, there were approximately 500 Russian soldiers. In addition to the passenger cars, the train included three covered wagons with military supplies and 37 cars-platforms with equipment.

The train’s destination was Gukovo station in the Rostov region of the Russian Federation. The train arrived there on March 3. After a change of locomotives and locomotive crews, the military train proceeded through Krasnaya Mogila station (Debaltseve department, Donetsk railway) to Debaltseve and Uglegorsk (Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine).

On March 1, 2023, Ruslan Shkodin, military commissar of Vitebsk region, addressed via TikTok Belarusian representatives of the youth subculture Redan and invited them to join military-patriotic clubs instead of “bunching aimlessly like a flock of rams”.

“Stop bunching up and being rams. You are being manipulated. You will incur criminal or administrative liability. If you want to come, be here at 3:00 in the afternoon. If you want an extreme, come to the military-patriotic clubs and to contract service,” he said in the video.

On March 2, 2023, the State Military Industrial Committee of the Republic of Belarus reported that a prototype tank was being tested at the 230th combined arms firing range. The above-mentioned prototype model of tank T-72BM2 was developed by specialists of the Borisov 140th repair plant in the framework of development work “Zaslon” Tests of the tank were conducted both in daytime and at night. The aim of the test was the confirmation of the tactical and technical characteristics of the presented sample.

On March 2, 2023, Interior Minister Ivan Kubrakov said during a press conference that the Belarusian special forces and internal troops were equipped with strike drones, and police was engaged in a mass purchase of unmanned drones. According to the Minister, specialists are being trained with the assistance of the Belarusian Defense Ministry in order to work with such drones.

On March 3, 2023, the military exercises involving territorial bodies of the Border Guard Service ended. According to the State Border Committee of Belarus, planned training activities were held in border guard groups and units from February 17 to March 3. The State Border Committee checked the readiness of units for deployment, as well as capability of operating effectively away from their permanent deployment sites.

On March 3, 2023, Interior Minister Ivan Kubrakov said in an interview that those people, who could not be recruited for certain reasons in the armed forces, would be “conscripted” into the people’s volunteer army.

“The people’s volunteer army is planned to be created under local authorities, but the direct leadership of such people’s militias and training of it will be exercised by internal affairs officers. The level can be very different: from the head of the district police department to a district police inspector. Who will be drafted into the people’s volunteer army? These will be people who cannot be mobilized for certain reasons. These will be people who reached the age of retirement, but they’ll be ready to defend their homeland, ready to protect their homes and families. It doesn’t matter if it’s a woman or a man. Women, by the way, are sometimes with more combative nature than men,” Kubrakov said.

On March 7, 2023, State Border Committee of Belarus informed that border guards in Pinsk district would conduct combat shooting on March 9, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21, 22, 23, 24, 28, 29, 30 and 31 from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Local residents were asked not to approach the shooting range near the village of Vyzhlovici.

“The danger zone covers an area of approximately 3,900 m from the northwestern outskirts of the settlement Vyzhlovichi and further in a northwestern direction for a width of 2,390m. In order to avoid accidents, staying in this area at the indicated time is strictly prohibited,” the message said.

On March 7, 2023, the White House’s Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council (NSC), John Kirby, said at the press briefing that the US administration saw no indication of both Alexander Lukashenko’s and the Belarusian Armed Forces’ intention to expand support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

Kirby explained the US authorities had not seen any evidence that the Belarusian army or official Minsk planned to support Russia more tangibly. The NSC officer said that according to the US side, Belarus did not intend “to send its militaries to Ukraine”.

On March 9, 2023, Viktor Dovnar, Head of the Main Department of Educational Work and Youth Policy of the Ministry of Education, told journalists that Belarusian schools were staffed by leaders of military-patriotic education by 93%.

“As of today, general secondary education institutions are staffed with supervisors of military-patriotic education by 93%, while the staffing rate for colleges is 52%Work on staffing with these specialists is carried out jointly with the Ministry of Defense and district military enlistment offices. In addition, 39 resource centers have been created around the country to accumulate the work of military-patriotic education leaders,” the head of the main directorate said.

On March 10, 2023, Alexander Lukashenko signed Decree No. 66 “On сall-up of reserve officers for active duty”. The document assumes conscription of up to 230 men under the age of 27 into the armed forces and call-up of up to 20 persons into bodies of the border service. By implication, all conscripts must have previously been trained in appropriate training programmes for reserve officers at military departments or faculties, received a commission as an officer and be enlisted in the reserve.

On March 14, 2023, the press service of the Belarusian Defense Ministry reported that in March, Belarus would hold a scheduled call-up of conscripts for training camps. The ministry noted that the Armed Forces “continue planned activities on further improving the combat and mobilization readiness of the military units and formations”.

“During the training camp the conscripts will improve their professional knowledge, get acquainted with new models of weapons, military and special equipment, take part in planned training sessions and exercises,” the Defense Ministry said.

On March 15, 2023, in Minsk planned draft began for those liable for military service to military training. The Ministry of Defense stressed that the activities were carried out “to restore and improve practical skills according to one’s military training specialties”.

“A number of activities have been carried out so far. We are ready to send conscripts to the 7th Engineer Regiment and the 120th Guards separate mechanized brigade,” said Colonel Yevgeny Bratskov, the military commissar of the Oktyabrsky district of Minsk.

On March 17, 2023, the Commander of Interior Ministry Troops Nikolai Karpenkov reported that Belarus planned to form new special-purpose units. According to the Major General, following the Lynx, Smerch and Honor units, a Berkut unit has been formed in military part 3214.

“This unit’s staffing is coming to an end, the soldiers completing their compulsory military service in the Special Forces brigade are coming here for contract service,” Karpenkov said. He emphasized that Berkut’s primary task was the same as that of other recently created units, namely combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups, as well as illegal armed formations.

On March 18, 2023, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Nikolai Karpenkov spoke about how the new weaponry, namely strike drones, would be used by the internal troops under his control. According to Karpenkov, an unmanned drone could be used, for example, for finding a lost person in the forest. But he paid more attention to the opportunities of using drones in case of mass protests. The Deputy Minister pointed out that the internal troops had already been trained not only in carrying out reconnaissance with drones, but also in bombing.

On March 20, 2023, the level of preparation for the Minsk regional territorial defense was checked in accordance with the training plan.  The inspection was supervised and led by Minsk Region Head Alexander Turchin and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces – First Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Gulevich.

The established military units of the Borisov region territorial troops had to solve combat training tasks jointly with the internal affairs bodies for both protecting critical infrastructure facilities and maintaining order under martial law. About 200 conscripts were called up from the reserve for military training. Furthermore, the issues on formation and training of people’s volunteer unit were worked out in one of the village councils in Borisov district.

On March 20, 2023, in the village of Oberovshchina, Kamenetz district, a corpse of a serviceman with signs of suicide was found in the premises of Vysoko-Lytovsk border control unit. The State Border Committee reported that the 19-year-old private was drafted in October 2022 and served in the Brest Border Guard Group.

On March 21, 2023, at meeting with his power unit, Alexander Lukashenko said he was alarmed by the facts of crimes among servicemen, including those committed by officers of various security agencies.

“On the whole, not everything is going smoothly for us with the state of military discipline. We perfectly see and understand everything that is happening on the borders of our country. The question which needs to be answered it is whether we fully ensure the security of our state and citizens,” he said. Lukashenko asked not only the Defense Ministry, but other power structures as well, what problems they have and what should be done to resolve them.

On March 21, 2023, the Defense Ministry press service said that the North-Western Operational Command  (NWOC) would hold a joint staff training to work out in practice the use of troops in a defensive operation.

The agency stressed that the exercise was planned. The aim of the exercise is “to raise the level of coherence of the operational command directorates, formations and military units to a level that ensures effective and high-quality work during the decision-making and planning phase of the operational command’s defensive operation”.

On March 21, 2023, special tactical exercises of the Central Internal Affairs Directorate of the Minsk City Executive Committee were held at the airfield in Lipki. The purpose of the exercises was to test both the coherence of actions in special conditions and new equipment. Particular attention was paid to the interaction between services and units in suppressing an attempted attack on settlement or critical infrastructure by illegal armed groups and ensuring the safety of citizens in such a case.

On March 23, 2023, it became known that the Belarusian company Mogoteх, a well-known textile manufacturer inside the country and the largest producer of military clothing in Belarus, has plans to launch a project in Chechnya on sewing military uniforms. The Chechen local company Erzu will become a partner of a Belarusian company in Russia’s Caucasus region; production of military uniforms will begin there this year.

Minister of Chechnya on Industry and Energy Adam Khakimov told journalists about that. At the first stage the joint-venture company will plan to sew products worth 50 million Russian rubles (approximately $650,000).

On March 23, 2023, the press service of the Belarusian Defence Ministry reported that a new anti-aircraft missile regiment had been formed in Belarus. “In forming the regiment, special attention was paid to the creation of modern military infrastructure and  educational material resources of military preparation, the provision of comfortable accommodation conditions for  military personnel, as well as issues concerning social support for soldiers and members of their families,” an announcement by the Belarusian Defense Ministry about the creation of a new military unit said.

On March 24, 2023, the press service of the Belarusian Defense Ministry said that one of the material support units of the 120th Separate Mechanized Brigade was in readiness to perform tasks for one’s intended purpose. In particular, it’s planned to remove weapons, military and special equipment from storage for marching to the designated area.

On March 25, 2023, Vladimir Putin in the TV programme “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” on the “Russia 24” TV channel said that Minsk and Moscow had agreed on the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, about which, according to the Russian president, Alexander Lukashenko had long requested. By July 1, the construction of a storage facility for it will be completed.

Vladimir Putin said that he simply copied the actions of the US, “We are not transferring nuclear weapons. And the US is not transferring to its allies. We’re basically doing the same thing they’ve been doing for decades. They have allies in certain countries and they prepare carriers, they train crews for them. We are going to do the same thing.” He also reminded that Russia had already given Belarus the Iskander complex, which could be a nuclear weapon carrier, as well as helped to refurbish 10 planes of the Belarusian Air Force for the use of such weapons.

On March 27, 2023, Belarusian state TV showed what the new uniform of Belarusian conscripts and special operations forces looked like. The uniform was demonstrated by Tatsiana Liakh, head of the laboratory of the Armed Forces’ 2336th clothing warehouse in Borisov.

The new uniforms for conscripts, including developed winter and summer sets, began arriving at military units in December 2022. They included a new jacket from raincoat fabrics and a new military headgear. TV crews were shown testing the winter set’s fabric on a test stand – it withstood a load of up to 1,800 newtons. All materials used have undergone a similar test drive.

On March 28, 2023, by Alexander Lukashenko’s decree, Andrei Fedin was appointed Deputy Defense Minister for Armament – Chief of Armament of the Belarussian Armed Forces. His predecessor was relieved of his post due to illness.

At the same time, Colonel Vitaly Shestak was appointed to the post of First Deputy Chief of Armament of the Armed Forces – Chief of the Armament Headquarters, which was held by Andrei Fedin. Major General Sergei Simonenko has been relieved of the post of Deputy Defense Minister for Armament – Chief of Armament of the Armed Forces by Alexander Lukashenko and dismissed from military service due to illness with the right to wear military uniform and rank badges.

On March 29, 2023, Colonel Oleg Turchinovich became commander of the 61st Fighter Aviation Base and head of the Baranovichi garrison. 41-year-old Turchinovich was born in Pinsk, where he graduated from secondary school No 3. He received higher education at the Military Academy of Belarus, as well as at the Air Force Engineering Academy named after Professor N.E. Zhukovsky of the Russian Defense Ministry. In 2003, he began his service as a senior pilot of the 927th fighter aviation base of Northwest Operational Tactical Air Force and Air Defense Command. He was deputy commander of an aviation squadron aircraft unit on MiG-29 of the 927th IAB, later he headed it.

Since 2010 he has served at the 61st Fighter Air Base. He was deputy commander and commander of an aviation squadron aircraft unit on MiG-29, Chief of Staff , deputy commander for flight training. From 2020 to 2023 served as Chief of Staff – First Deputy Commander of the airbase.

On March 30, 2023, the spokesman for the CSTO Joint Staff, Vladislav Shchegrikovich, acknowledged that the CSTO would hold five different military exercises in Belarus in 2023.

According to his words, joint and special exercises are planned in Belarus to combine training of various components of the CSTO troops: joint exercise “Interaction-2023” with the CSTO collective rapid reaction forces, a special training “Search-2023” with the intelligence forces and means, a special training “Echelon-2023” with the forces and means of material and technical support of the CSTO Troops (Collective Forces).

“For the first time in Belarus, a special exercise “Barrier-2023” with a joint formation of radiation, chemical and biological protection and medical support will be carried out. A special exercise “Scala-2023″ is also planned with subunits of the Ministry of Emergency Situations which were allocated to the Collective Rapid Response Forces of the CSTO,” Shchegrikovich summarized.

On March 30, 2023, Aleksandr Lukashenko made a number of personnel decisions concerning the Armed Forces of Belarus.  According to the decree, Colonel Vladimir Bely has been appointed Commander of the Western Operational Command of the Armed Forces. He was relieved of his previous position as head of the General Staff Faculty – deputy head of the educational institution Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus. Major General Igor Demidenko, who had held the post of commander so far, was dismissed from his post and enlisted at the disposal of the Belarusian Defense Minister until May 9, 2023.

On March 31, 2023, during his message to the people and parliament, Alexander Lukashenko acknowledged that Russian troops were trained and received material supplies in Belarus. Moreover, the dictator stated that he “brought them here himself”.

Lukashenko also stated that Russian units in Belarus were trained by five hundred Belarusian officers. “Сombat coordination, combat training is conducted. Where necessary, troops are armed, materially supported,” he said. According to him, all this is taking place “under our command – Russia is not up to it, it has other things to do”.

“So, don’t scare people here that Putin has taken over Belarus: we, I manage these troops. It was I who brought them here to train, prepare, equip,  teach working if, God forbid, they have to do it,” Lukashenko said.

On March 31, 2023, during his address to the people and parliament, Alexander Lukashenko stated that he was ready to use tactical nuclear weapons (which Russia had not yet delivered to Belarus) in case of a threat to the existence of Belarus.

Lukashenka recalled that Belarus had received the Iskander missile system, which could carry nuclear warheads, “Our re-equipped aircraft can also carry a nuclear warhead. You have heard from the President of Russia about the joint plans to build relevant infrastructure on the territory of Belarus. I just want to make it clear: all the infrastructure has been set up and it’s ready.” He noted that the Belarusian military had already been instructed “immediately to restore the sites in Belarus where Topol missile systems with nuclear warheads used to be deployed”.

“If necessary, Putin and I will decide and bring strategic nuclear weapons here as well. And they should understand it, the scoundrels who are there abroad today trying to explode us from inside and outside. We will stop at nothing to defend our countries, our states and our people. At least this way we will make them reckon with our people, if they don’t understand another language,” declared Lukashenko.

On March 31, 2023, in the Novogrudok and Korelichi districts of the Grodno region, a military training for units of territorial troops and territorial defense command bodies started (it will last until 21 April).

The military gathering is part of the training plan for territorial troops to improve their combat and mobilization readiness and check the reality for implementation of mobilization plans within established time limits. This military training also instructs officials from district executive committees and military enlistment offices on how to form territorial troops and prepare them for their tasks. In addition, during the military exercises, the issues of the use of territorial troops together with units and military units of the Armed Forces will be elaborated.

On March 31, 2023, during his address to the nation and the parliament, Alexander Lukashenko stated that that Belarus would control tactical nuclear weapons planned to be deployed in the country by Russia. This is how the dictator answered the question of how the management of the tactical nuclear arsenal planned to be deployed in Belarus would be structured, and whether the country’s opinion would be taken into account at the decisive moment.

Chapter 8. April-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia

On April 1, 2023, trials of the multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) ‘Shkval’ were conducted at the Osipovichsky firing range. The notable feature of the trials was the comprehensive use of the MLRS with unmanned aerial vehicles, whose task was reconnaissance and target coordinate transmission. “During the trials, ‘Shkval’ confirmed all the declared characteristics,” the State Military Industrial Committee (SMIC) reported

On April 2, 2023, the Russian Ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, stated on television that Russian nuclear weapons would be deployed in Belarus, despite all the uproar that had arisen in Europe and the United States.

“Russia and Belarus are part of the territory of the Union State, which is legally established, unlike the territories of other countries where the United States deploys its nuclear weapons. They are just puppets of the US, whereas we have a unified space,” Gryzlov stated. According to him, tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus “will be brought closer to the western borders of the Union State”.

On April 3, 2023, the press secretary of Putin, Dmitry Peskov, when asked to clarify who would control the tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, referred to the statements made by Vladimir Putin in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin.

In an interview with Pavel Zarubin on March 25th, Vladimir Putin said that Moscow and Minsk had agreed to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, allegedly in response to ‘long-standing requests’ by Alexander Lukashenko. According to Putin, the construction of a special storage facility for these weapons will be completed by July 1, 2023. He added that Russia was not transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, but only deploying them, which allows to comply with the agreements on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.

However, on March 31, during the address to the nation and parliament, Alexander Lukashenko, when asked about how the management of the tactical nuclear arsenal planned to be deployed in Belarus would be organized and whether the country’s opinion would be taken into at the decisive moment, stated: “Everything will be done according to the law and regulations. There is no uncontrolled weaponry in Belarus and cannot be. Therefore, we will be the ones managing everything that is present in Belarus.”

On April 3, 2023, at the instruction of Alexander Lukashenko, a readiness check of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus was initiated. The overall management of the check was entrusted to the Secretariat of the Security Council of Belarus.

“The activities are comprehensive in nature and will allow determining the ability of commanders to manage subordinate military units and formations when they are brought to the highest degree of combat readiness, as well as the readiness of military units to fulfill their designated tasks within the established deadlines,” the statement from the Belarussian Defense Ministry said. “Please note that during the inspection the movement of military equipment is planned and civilian traffic on public roads and certain areas of the terrain may be temporarily restricted.”

On April 3, 2023, the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, announced that during the next combat readiness inspection of another Armed Forces’ unit, military officials would address various aspects, including conscription and the transition from peacetime to wartime basis. According to the Secretary of the Security Council, the inspection will be of a “strictly planned nature” and will be conducted under Lukashenko’s directive.

“The inspection will include a full range of activities related to transitioning the unit from peacetime to wartime, conscription of military personnel, delivery of weapons, and the unit’s deployment to training grounds for carrying out mission-specific tasks,” shared Volfovich. He emphasized that the inspection “will be of a prolonged nature and will cover various training grounds and areas of terrain.”

On April 4, 2023, a joint staff training exercise of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces began in Belarus. It was conducted from April 4 to April 6 under the command of Colonel Andrey Lukyanovich, the commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces.

“The training exercise is aimed at practicing the planning of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces’ operations within the activities of the regional troop (force) grouping,” the Belarussian Defense Ministry said in its statement. They also noted that the training was being conducted in accordance with the combat training plan of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces.

On April 4, 2023, the press service of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported that the crews of the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system from the Missile Troops of the Belarusian Armed Forces had been sent to the Russian Federation for their practical training.

The Belarusian military have been sent to one of the Russian training ranges where they will undergo a full cycle of training, improve practical skills in preparing the missile system for use, and train in its deployment. Combat training launches will also be conducted. “Additionally, the personnel of the crews will have to study in detail the maintenance and use of tactical nuclear warheads of the Iskander-M missile system,” the Defence Ministry said in its statement.

On April 5, 2023, one of the Belarusian independent media outlets reported on how the latest army readiness inspection had actually been organized. According to the publication, there was not enough time to distribute summonses in advance through the draft boards, so reservists were enlisted to distribute the summonses. It was also revealed that participants for the inspection had been recruited in an emergency order as well.

According to one of the sources interviewed by the edition, in the evening of April 3, summonses to the military registration and enlistment office began to be distributed massively in Brest. If it wasn’t possible to deliver them in person, they were brought to the workplace. His son, Alexey, also received a summons. The reader emphasized that nobody had informed him that his son would be taken to the military unit. On the contrary, during the delivery of the summons, he was assured that it would be necessary only to clarify the information, and it would only take half an hour.

Quote from the story: “Yesterday, on April 4, my son went to work, and there he was handed a summons. They immediately told him to appear at the Olympic Reserve Center for Athletics at 9 a.m. While my son was in contact, he told me that around 400 people were loaded onto buses with him and sent somewhere towards Grodno. People had nothing with them, no money, no personal hygiene items, and many of them had work and personal matters to attend to. My son informed the employees of the military enlistment office that he was involved in production and was needed at his workplace, and his director had even confirmed this. However, nobody listened. At about 3 p.m. he managed to report that he was being taken towards Pruzhany – and the phones became out of reach. The director of the enterprise was shocked by such a turn of events, as there was no way to manage without that employee. But nobody even paid attention to it. Everyone was treated the same. Everyone was herded onto the bus.  It’s utter madness. Couldn’t they handle it in a humane way, give people time to gather and resolve work-related matters, and so forth? He didn’t have anything with him, he simply came to work.”

On April 5, 2023, during a briefing, Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was asked if Russia planned to deploy strategic nuclear weapons in Belarus. In response, she advised to refer to previous statements made by Vladimir Putin.

Zakharova also added that Russia and Belarus were “building a unified defense space within the framework of the Union State”. “And we have the right to address any issues related to ensuring national security that arise due to the escalation of external threats in a way that best serves our interests. Since November 2021, as you know, the updated military doctrine of our integration alliance with Minsk has been in effect, according to which our military and military-technical cooperation is progressively expanding. When I say ‘our,’ you understand that I’m referring to our joint efforts. Any possible further steps will be strictly proportionate to the evolution of the military-strategic situation,” she said.

On April 6, 2023, the State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, publicly commented on the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. Responding to a question about the potential timeline for the delivery of nuclear warheads to Belarus, he said, “When our leaders, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Federation and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Belarus, make such a decision. The decision is up to them.”

He further emphasized that the quantity of nuclear weapons in Belarus would not be the primary concern; the most important aspect would be “the legal status and appropriate use of such weapons”.“And we know how to use them. And whether there will be a need to use them… I think it won’t come to that. After all, warheads and other ammunition of tactical or strategic nuclear weapons are primarily intended for deterrence and ensuring the security of both Russia and Belarus,” said Volfovich.

On April 6, 2023, it became known that Belarus and Russia had decided to extend certain agreements in the military sphere. Vladimir Putin made this statement at the Kremlin during the session of the Supreme State Council of the Union State.

Putin emphasized that Russia and Belarus would continue to enhance their cooperation in the defense and security sphere and expand their collaboration in the military-technical field. He stated, “This undoubtedly corresponds to the fundamental interests of our countries and peoples. Alexander Grigorievich raised the question of extending some of our previous agreements. I fully support this and, from my side, I request our Security Council to work out everything that was set as a priority task in this area today.”

On April 6, 2023, the Chief of the Main Directorate for the Combat Training of the Belarussian Armed Forces, Major General Alexander Bas, revealed in an interview that military personnel from the regional troop grouping (RTG) were preparing approximately 500 Belarusian instructors. And, tellingly, the training process itself has been developed taking into account the experience of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine.

“All the instructors have the highest level of necessary practical skills and knowledge. This is confirmed by both Russian colleagues and the results of control sessions. Excellent living conditions have been created for the servicemen. The training process itself is based on the experience of conducting combat operations during special operation in Ukraine. We adapt it and apply it for training the personnel of the regional troop grouping,” Alexander Bas said.

According to the official, the Belarusian side thoroughly analysed the forms and methods of using troops during the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and based on this experience changes were made to the training programmes of the units.

On April 6, 2023, it became known that the previous night an echelon with at least 20 units of equipment from the Armed Forces of Belarus arrived at the Goodogai railway station (9 km from the border with Lithuania). Among the equipment in the echelon, there were no fewer than 10-15 T-72B/B3 tanks, as well as APCs, BMP’s, and MT-LB vehicles. There are grounds to believe that an echelon with equipment from the 120th Brigade of the Belarusian Armed Forces (Uruchye, Minsk – a place of deployment) was transferred to Goodogai. The formation of the echelon took place throughout the day on April 5 at the Ozerishche station, from where the echelon departed at around 10 p.m. on the same day.

On April 8, 2023, reports emerged that preparations had begun for the construction of two new border checkpoints in the Homiel Region. Both of them are located on the border with Ukraine, near the Aleksandrovka-Vilcha border crossing, which became one of the entry points through which Russian forces invaded Ukraine from Belarus on February 24, 2022.

The screenshots of the procurement tasks related to the construction of new complexes of frontier posts have been published. The customer is interested in gathering information on prices and rates in the field of construction and building materials, as well as subsequent processing of these data.

According to the documents, the construction of one of the border guard posts is planned in the agrotown of Borovoe in Lelchitsky district, and the second one in Narovlya. The estimated cost of the work is 7,019 rubles for the facility in Lelchitsky district and 8,606 rubles for the one in Narovlya. The construction is planned to be completed in February and April 2024.

On April 8, 2023, Dmitry Krutoy, the Ambassador of Belarus to Russia, commented on the results of Lukashenko’s visit to Putin and the session of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in an interview with state TV. He stated that Belarusian aviation enterprises were actively increasing Russian orders. According to him, the authorities have set a task to load aviation enterprises until 2030.

“At present, the Su-25 (a military aircraft of Soviet design) is being worked on. The relevant documentation is currently being studied and transferred by the Russian side. But the Prime Minister has set an even tougher task: to start from the assembly of aircraft engines and proceed to the final assembly of complete aircraft. This is, of course, a super task, a maximum task,” Krutoy said.

On April 9, 2023, one of the Belarusian independent media outlets provided justifications from the Belarusian Ministry of Defense regarding reports that in some regions of the Brest region, military conscripts had been taken to training camps in an emergency order and without prior mandatory notification.

The Telegram channel of the Belarusian Defense Ministry, citing the Deputy Commander for Rear Services – Chief of Rear Services of the 11th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade of the Western Operational Command, Demian Yashchuk, reported that “the conscripts had been equipped.” The 11th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade is based in Slonim.

“Upon arrival, they were provided with items of clothing of the first category, thermal insulation mats, sleeping bags,” said Demian Yashchuk. “The conscripts are accommodated in barracks, a gymnasium, an educational building, and a club. They are provided meals at two canteens of RUP TPU under the Ministry of Defense. When moving to training grounds and areas, the meals for the conscripts will be organized using the technical means of the brigade’s food service. Accommodation is in tented camps using thermal insulation mats and sleeping bags.”

On April 9, 2023, Belarusian military officials stated that they were ready to combat HIMARS and drones. The information was conveyed in an interview by Dmitry Panin, the Chief of Staff of the Air Defense Forces and Anti-Aircraft Defense Forces of Belarus. He believes that HIMARS has been “overhyped” in its publicity.

“Suffice it to say that HIMARS may be overly hyped,” Dmitry Panin noted. “It is a typical ballistic target with its own peculiarities. The integrated training equipment of anti-aircraft missile systems and complexes allows for practicing the actions of crews against this type of target. Moreover, we have repeatedly performed tasks on targets simulating HIMARS operations at the Ashuluk polygon. In this case, shall we say, there is nothing particularly new for us.”

On April 10, 2023, the Belarussian Ministry of Defense reported that a training exercise had been conducted in the Belarusian army involving units of the Air Force. “The main element was the dispersion of combat aviation to alternate airfields. The exercise was planned but included unexpected scenarios,” the statement said.

On April 10, 2023, information emerged that a conscript soldier from the 38th Brest Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade had shot himself in Brest in March. The incident occurred while the 20-year-old soldier was on duty.

“He graduated from school a couple of years ago. He has already served for at least six months, so he was supposed to be demobilized either in the spring or in the fall,” a source interviewed by the media outlet said. “Everything happened recently, maybe in mid-March. They said there had been a gunshot to the forehead. Everyone is surprised that it happened this way because the boy didn’t have any major problems at home at that time. That’s what those who interacted with him say. He had a painful breakup with a girl once. But that happened a long time ago, gradually he moved on, he went through it all and moved forward.”

According to the interviewee, the funeral of the deceased conscript went quietly, and he was buried in such a way that many in his surroundings were unaware of what had happened.

On April 10, 2023, Alexander Volfovich, the State Secretary of the Belarussian Security Council, stated during a meeting with the heads of higher education institutions that he considered it expedient to return to the practice of conscripting students into the army.

“I would like to ask some questions to the rectors, of course, I won’t expect an immediate response from them. I will give them time to reflect on it and submit their thoughts and suggestions to the State Secretariat of the Security Council. How to educate students in military departments, how do they generally view and approach the issue of conscripting students into the armed forces, as it was once done in the Soviet Union,” said Volfovich.

On April 11, 2023, Leonid Kasinski, the Assistant to the Minister of Defense for Ideological Work and Chief of the Main Ideological Department, announced that the servicemen who had been called up from the reserves to participate in the sudden combat readiness inspection of the Armed Forces would be back home by May 9th.

“In addition, we continue to carry out tasks related to strengthening sections of the Belarusian state border in the south and preparing units of the Regional Grouping,” said Kasinski. He also emphasized that military conscripts who had been called up from the reserves were practically involved in all activities.

On April 12, 2023, it was announced that since March 20, the leadership of both the Belarusian Ministry of Defense and the State Secretariat of the Belarusian Security Council had been inspecting the progress of military exercises by the territorial defense forces in the Minsk region. In particular, an inspection is currently underway in the Borisov district (Minsk region) to assess the readiness level of the territorial defense forces in the Minsk region. This inspection is being conducted under the supervision of Viktor Gulevich, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces and the Deputy Minister of Defense.

The progress of the exercises is being inspected by Alexander Volfovich, the State Secretary of the Security Council, Viktor Khrenin, the Minister of Defense, and Alexander Turchin, the Chairman of the Regional Executive Committee. The aforementioned officials conducted a visit to the “Belino” sanatorium in the Borisov district. During their visit, they personally inspected the accommodation facilities of the territorial forces and gained a comprehensive understanding of the soldiers’ equipment and living conditions.

On April 12, 2023, the Secretary of the Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, announced that a mechanized brigade would conduct a large-scale military exercise in the Slonim district. Volfovich reminded that currently, some elements of the military security systems are being inspected. In particular, a mechanized brigade, one of the units of the Western Operational Command in the Slonim district, was recently brought to combat readiness.

“They are working on the issues of transitioning the mechanized unit from peacetime to wartime in full scale, including mobilization, supply of material resources, removal of all military equipment from storage, and conducting a comprehensive combat coordination. At the final stage, a brigade-level tactical exercise will be conducted,” said Volfovich.

On April 12, 2023, the Secretary of the Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, announced that the people’s militias in Belarus would be responsible for tasks related to the introduction of martial law, as well as combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

The head of the Security Council stated that the people’s militia would be formed from volunteers, “residents of a particular locality, who will assist local law enforcement agencies, primarily district police officers”. According to Volfovich, it is expected that they will perform tasks related to ensuring security. “Additionally, they will address tasks related to the imposing of martial law and combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups within the territory of a particular area,” official emphasized.

On April 14, 2023, the press service of the Belarussian Ministry of Defense announced the completion of the reception of mobilization resources in Belarus. The defense agency reminded that a readiness check of the Armed Forces had been conducted in the country since April 3. Its purpose was to determine the ability of the Belarusian army to carry out its designated tasks “in rapidly changing circumstances”.

“Currently, one of the units of the Western Operational Command is being brought to a state of readiness to carry out its designated tasks. The entire range of measures for transitioning the mechanized unit from peacetime to wartime is being rehearsed. The reception of mobilization resources has been completed. The unit’s strength has been brought up to six thousand personnel. Weapons, military, and special equipment have been taken out of storage,” the Ministry of Defense noted.

Certain units have conducted marches to their designated areas, established rear infrastructure, prepared weapons and military equipment for the execution of assigned tasks, and commenced activities for combat cohesion, including combat training exercises. In the final stage of the assessment, the personnel of the unit will participate in a brigade-level tactical exercise.

On April 14, 2023, the Minister of Defense, Viktor Khrenin, stated that even without nuclear weapons, Belarus was a target for NATO. Khrenin commented on statements suggesting that Belarus could become a target for NATO after the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.

“There is no need to harbor illusions that we will become a target now. Since the days of the Belarusian Military District, we have been a target for NATO. Constant reconnaissance has been conducted against us. It has just become more intensified now because certain anxious politicians, for some reason, do not want to sit down at the negotiating table,” Viktor Khrenin said.

On April 14, 2023, Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said at the Brest polygon that Belarus would have strategic nuclear weapons “if necessary”. “We have prepared equipment – aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads. We have trained pilots. We have received the most advanced ‘Iskander’ complex, which can use missiles with nuclear warheads,” Viktor Khrenin reminded.

He added that the preparation of the Belarusian unit, which will return from training in Russia, is nearing completion. “If necessary, we will also have strategic nuclear weapons,” the head of the Belarusian Defence Ministry said. Viktor Khrenin assured that Belarus was already preparing its existing sites for strategic weapons.

On April 14, 2023, the press service of the Belarussian Defense Ministry reported that the training сenter of the Russian Military Space Forces had completed additional preparation for Belarusian pilots of Su-25 attack aircraft. Belarusian pilots and engineering staff have mastered the program of operation and combat use of Su-25 attack aircraft.

“The training included both theoretical courses and practical exercises under the guidance of experienced Russian instructors, which allowed not only to improve the practical skills of the flight crew but also to master new methods of using modern aviation weapons, including special munitions,” the Ministry of Defense stated.

On April 14, 2023, Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, at one of the military training grounds in the Brest region, announced that large-scale combat readiness inspections would also take place in other units of the country’s Armed Forces. The head of the defense department emphasized that the current readiness check is not the last one.

“At a certain point in time, we will definitely conduct such checks for all units basing on the experience of the first unit. We know, the first one always has it harder. Let’s see how they handle the task, and we will look at other units taking into account their experience,” Viktor Khrenin stated.

According to the Minister of Defense, the reserve servicemen who were called upon to participate in the assessment “came with understanding”. “People understand that this is not someone’s whim: to break people away from their work and their comfort zone. This event is aimed at preparing for the defense of our country,” Khrenin said.

On April 17, 2023, a draft law on the people’s militia was submitted to the Belarusian parliament. Earlier, Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said that the draft law on the people’s militia had been developed by the Defence Ministry jointly with the Ministry of internal Affairs

“The draft law ‘On People’s Militia’ is very relevant. In the people’s militia, both those of our people who are still on military registration and those who have already been discharged can prove themselves worthy. Even those who, for various reasons, did not serve in the army but are hunters and have skills in handling weapons. However, the most important thing here is a person’s civic stance, one’s readiness to serve the Motherland, protect one’s home and family. And specific knowledge can be acquired during training,” a deputy Pavel Mikhalyuk emphasized.

On April 17, 2023, the Ministry of Defense announced that as part of the spring draft, approximately 40,000 young Belarusians would be summoned to the military enlistment offices, and of those conscripts, about 10,000 would be sent to the army. The Ministry of Defense stated that the conscription activities were carried out “in accordance with the legislation, without any significant changes”.

The spring conscription campaign in Belarus will begin on April 26th. On the very first day, approximately 1,000 conscripts will be sent to the army, where they will serve in the Special Operations Forces, at the 72nd Joint Training Centre for Warrant Officers and Junior Specialists, as well as at the Minsk military commandant office.

On April 18, 2023, it was announced that the Ministry of Defense continued to assess the potential collaboration between territorial defense and the people’s militia. This time, the exercises will take place in the Grodno region.

From April 18th to April 21st, under the guidance of the Deputy Chairman of the Regional Executive Committee, a command and staff exercise with territorial defense forces will be conducted in Novogrudok and Korelichsky districts. The exercise will also involve a unit of the people’s militia formed in the Koshelovo Village Council of the Novogrudok district.

“During the exercise, the territorial troops, in cooperation with the internal affairs bodies and emergency response units, will practice issues related to safeguarding vital infrastructure and maintaining public order under conditions of martial law, as well as countering sabotage and reconnaissance groups or illegal armed formations,” the Ministry of Defense stated.

The military commissar warned conscripts about the responsibility for failure to appear in response to the summons.

On April 21, 2023, Gomel military commissar Andrey Krivonosov addressed draft evaders through an online video message. The military commissar warned conscripts about the consequences of failing to appear for the draft board and threatened that his staff would find each individual and “put everybody into military service”

“I warn that failure to appear at the military enlistment office entails administrative responsibility. Evading conscription shall give rise to the corresponding criminal responsibility, including imprisonment. Therefore, I suggest to draft evaders not to tempt fate, but to come to the military enlistment offices, and fulfill their military duty. I warn that the staff of the military enlistment office will find everyone, carry out conscription measures, and put everybody into military service, because the Armed Forces transform conscripts into real men,” Krivonosov said.

On April 22, 2023, it became known that the crews of the operational-tactical missile system Iskander-M of the Missile Forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces completed their practical training in Russia, including handling nuclear ammunition.

“The crews of the operational-tactical missile complex ‘Iskander-M’ from the missile troops of the Belarussian Armed Forces have completed their practical training in the Russian Federation. Today, Belarusian servicemen landed at Machulishchy airfield,” the statement said. “The military personnel have undergone a full training cycle at one of the Russian training grounds. In addition, the personnel of the units have thoroughly studied the issues of maintenance and use of tactical nuclear warheads of the ‘Iskander-M’ missile complex.”

On April 23, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced that the Belarusian military had begun to improve the facilities where strategic nuclear weapons, specifically the “Topol” missile complexes, had been previously located.

According to the agency’s information, work is currently underway to improve the territory after the winter period. Measures are also being taken to maintain the infrastructure in proper condition.

On April 26, 2023, the spring conscription campaign started in Belarus. From that day on, young men began to be sent for compulsory military service. On the very first day, approximately 1,000 conscripts were sent to the army, where they will serve in the Special Operations Forces, the 72nd Joint Training Centre for Warrant Officers and Junior Specialists, and the Minsk military commandant office.

In total, around 40,000 young individuals will be called up to the draft offices. Among them, approximately 10,000 will be sent to serve in the armed forces and other troops or military formations in April-May.

On April 27, 2023, Deputy Chairman of the State Border Committee, Igor Pechen, announced that Belarus planned to increase the personnel of certain units on the southern border. Pechen stated that the situation on the southern direction was challenging but manageable, and the units were equipped with everything necessary.

“All necessary security measures have already been taken by us. Of course, further improvement and equipping of the military personnel are underway. We also plan to increase the personnel of certain units and acquire new weapons. However, this is planned work that was carried out last year, is being conducted now, and will continue in the future,” Pechen stated.

On April 27, 2023, an important bilateral meeting was held in the capital of India, New Delhi, between Viktor Khrenin, the Defense Minister of Belarus, and Li Shangfu, a member of the State Council and the Defense Minister of the People’s Republic of China.

During the meeting, “the high level of Belarusian-Chinese bilateral relations” with the status of “comprehensive and all-weather strategic partnership”, was emphasized. “The parties exchanged views on the state and prospects of cooperation in the military sphere, and outlined ways for further collaboration in the near future,” the Belarussian Defense Ministry stated.

On April 28, 2023, the Belarusian Defense Minister, Viktor Khrenin, spoke at a meeting of defense ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in New Delhi, India.

In his speech, the head of the Belarusian Defense Ministry stated that “the unipolar world is becoming a thing of the past”, and certain forces “have encountered a crisis of globalization that was built on the monetary, financial, technological, and cultural dominance of the United States”.

The Defense Minister was convinced that in that case, it was about controlling the resources and wealth of the entire planet. According to Viktor Khrenin, Washington’s activity “destabilizes regions, forcing others – both competitors and allies – into confrontation”.

On April 29, 2023, the Chief of the General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister, Viktor Gulevich, stated that the sudden combat readiness check of one of the units of the Armed Forces demonstrated that the troops were prepared to repel any aggression against Belarus if necessary.

“Combat training is the main component of military forces’ activities. This is further compounded by the tense situation that has arisen at our borders. We are forced to react to hostile actions from our neighbors who are intensively conducting combat training,” Viktor Gulevich said.

On April 29, 2023, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, stated that if necessary, Belarus could put under the gun up to 1.5 million people.

“Today, we maintain all these structures within peace time states. We cannot afford, and it would probably be wrong, to expand military component, shall we say, to full wartime strength, i.e. to form a military organization of over 1 million people. Although the entire complex (including the military, the police, the Committee for State Security, border guards, territorial defense, and the people’s militia) will amount to less than 1.5 million people, who will be armed and ready to defend their country if necessary,” Volfovitch stated.

Chapter 9. May-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On May 1, 2023, in Belarus, the final phase of brigade tactical exercise started, which were held in the framework of complex check of combat readiness of the armed forces with one of the Western Operational Command troops.

All the units were involved into the exercise, the Ministry of Defence said. The process is being observed by the Defence Minister, Viktor Khrenin, the head of the Main Directorate of Ideology of the Ministry of Defence, Leonid Kasinsky, and representatives of the State Secretariat of the Security Council.

On May 1, 2023, in Belarus, another brigade tactical exercise finished which had been held in the framework of the check of combat readiness of the armed forces. The Defence Minister, Viktor Khrenin, visited one of the training grounds and distributed presents and merch of Lukashenka to exemplary candidates liable for military service.

The brigade tactical training held in the course of the check of combat readiness, has finished, but the check is still going on, the Defence Minister, Viktor Khrenin, said at a solemn ceremony. He handed over presents and the merch of Lukashenka to the candidates liable for military service that have shown the best results in combat training subjects. The Belarusian dictator was depicted on the print of T-shirts holding that very tommy gun without a magazine with bullets, that he carried near the Palace of Independence on August 23, 2020, – the day when the protesting people came there.

On May 2, 2023, the Chairman of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus, Anatoly Lapo, informed that new forces had been allocated to guard the borders with the EU. Now, maneuvering groups are being formed on two directions.

“Las year, we formed one maneuvering group in Mozyr detachment (it’s about 300 people), and now the situation is such that we have to form another maneuvering group on Lida direction, and one more – as a reserve on Brest direction. When autumn comes, maybe they will not be needed there, then we shall move it to another direction”, Lapo said.

On May 3, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus informed that it was going to conduct “another phase of the complex check of combat readiness of military units and detachments, responding to crisis situations”. First of all, that was regarding the west of Belarus.

“First of all, those military units and detachments are going to be subject to the check which are deployed in Grodno, Brest and Minsk regions. Exercise and trainings of various scale, as well as conscription of those liable for military service, are planned to be held; the number of conscripts should not exceed 1000 people,” the Ministry of Defence said. “One of the peculiarities of the complex check will be approbation of forming people’s militia units and performing of training and combat tasks by them in the interest of maintaining martial law. Detachments of special operations forces, Air Force and Air Defence, operational commands, missile troops and artillery, support units are going to be engaged into the maneuvers. They are going to operate on several training grounds and sectors of terrain”.

Besides that, Russian aviation was also going to participate. Belarusian pilots together with the pilots from the Russian Federation “are going to perform tasks of air patrol of the air area of the Republic of Belarus.”

On May 3, 2023, Major General Igor Demidenko was appointed Head of the General Staff Faculty – Deputy Head of Military Academy of Belarus. Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed the corresponding Order n. 130.

Previously, Igor Demidenko held the post of Commander of the Western Operations Command. He was dismissed from that post at the end of March and placed at the disposal of the Ministry of Defence till May 9, 2023.

The post of Demidenko was assigned to Colonel Vladimir Bely, who had previously been Head of the General Staff Faculty – Deputy Head of Military Academy of the Republic of Belarus. Therefore, the military officials have in fact exchanged their posts.

On May 3, 2023, the Deputy Chair of Brest Regional Executive Committee, Vadzim Krauchuk, informed that financial means earned during the republican Saturday voluntary work day started arriving to the Brest region for the purpose to build a center of patriotic education of youth.

“Approximately over 14 million rubles are going to arrive to the republican budget from the Saturday voluntary work day. According to the decree of the Council of Ministers, half of those means are going to be directed to the Brest Regional Executive Committee. According to normative legal acts, the money is going to arrive till November 15, 2023. As of today, 8.6 million rubles have already been paid to the account of the republican Saturday voluntary work day. Therefore, we can already use 50% of those financial means which equals to about 4.3 million rubles”, Vadzim Krauchuk said.

First of all, the money is going to be used to prepare design and estimate documentation. Then, for the reconstruction of a barrack room to make it adequate for students’ accommodation, for construction of utility networks, creation of recreational and educational complex, which will include a sports nucleus, a tent town, a shooting range and playgrounds.

On May 3, 2023, the deputy chairman of the Minsk City Executive Committee, Artsiom Tsuran, said at the opening ceremony of the first city gathering of military patriotic clubs “Summit of Courage” that the number of military patriotic clubs in Minsk has doubled.

“Now, the number of military patriotic clubs has doubled, a thousand people are studying there. We see the demand for increasing the number of such clubs even more. The same is happening with military patriotic classes: in two years, there number has grown more than two times. Such growth shows, that kids are interested in that”, Artsiom Tsuran said.

The chairman of the Minsk Regional Executive Committee, Uladzimir Kukharou, noted that the officials were “not going to be satisfied with what has already been achieved”.

On May 3, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of Russia gathered all the military attachés of the “friendly” countries and held a briefing for them on nuclear policy of the country. Among other things, the issue of deployment of tactical nuclear weapons from the Russian Federation to Belarus was mentioned: according to the Deputy Minister, Aleksandr Fomin, it was a response to the actions of NATO.

According to Fomin, Russia demanded from the USA and their NATO allies to return the American nuclear weapons back to the territory of the United States, but those demands “were rejected”. Therefore, a decision “about addition measures to ensure security of the Union State” was made. “The taken measures are a response to the activity of the North-Atlantic Alliance aimed to escalate the situation”, the Ministry of Defence of Russia claimed.

On May 3, 2023, independent mass media reported how the spontaneous check of combat readiness really was conducted in the April of this year. As direct participants of that process, who were dragged out of their peaceful life for a month, say, the real condition of the Belarusian army is very far from what the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus declare.

“We went to a training ground in Baranavichy. However, we were deployed not in the territory of the training ground, but in a forest near it. There was no place at the training ground for everybody. We lived in tents, although the weather conditions were not very good, it was raining a lot”, Vitaly describes. “There was only one generator to produce the electrical power, and it was taken by the officers to their tent. Soldiers were left without electricity. Some decided to chip in together and buy a generator, but it was not enough for everybody, too. Once a week we were taken to “take a bath”: it was a big tent, where a machine delivers tepid water. Rest of the time, those who had been smart enough to bring wet wipes, washed themselves with those wipes”.

“During firearms training, there was a show-off in front of the bosses. In real life, all the equipment is falling apart, is broken. Some weapons shot once or twice and broke”, an eyewitness claimed. “The rest of the time, they are explaining us the theory. Sometimes it happened that we did not do anything at all. Then part of the people was taken to perform different jobs: cleaning the territory, mess duty and so on. In total, there is no training at all, a lot of people did not even understand what they had to do. Everything went ideally only when the supreme command was visiting”.

On May 4, 2023, independent mass media found out that people’s militia units, actively created by the rulers of Belarus, are indeed created illegally: there is just no corresponding legislation in the country.

On May 5, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus informed that Belarusian pilots together with Russian pilots were patrolling the sky of Belarus; the crews “have no difficulties to interact or jointly perform the given tasks”. The pilots worked out the tasks of air patrol and mutual security in the framework of another check of combat readiness announced in Belarus.

“Flying in formation gives a lot to the pilots, both to the leading pilot and to the wingman. Our crews fly the same type of equipment with the same type of armament, the level of the pilots is approximately the same, therefore it is easy for the crews to interact and jointly perform the given tasks”, the deputy commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces, Leonid Davidovich said.

On May 6, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus informed that the check of combat readiness of the territorial defence were being continued in the country, and people’s militia units were being formed. More people’s militia units were formed in two agricultural executive committees of Volkovyssk district.

According to the communication of the military establishment, the people’s militia units performed tasks of ensuring maintenance of public order in the course of a complex check of combat readiness of the armed forces, as well as ensure security of movement of military columns.

On May 6, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defence of Belarus reported that Belarusian military units and detachments of missile troops were practicing training and combat tasks of performing missile attacks.

The military personnel of the missile troops drove to the training grounds, the ministry reported. They were going to practice continuous management of units, planning of fire destruction of a potential enemy in the course of the exercise. They were also going to perform highly maneuverable actions in “in a fast-changing environment”, as well as “training and combat tasks of preparation and performing of missile attacks.”

On May 6, 2023, the Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus, Ihar Petryshenka, said on television that by the end of this year every Belarusian school will have patriotic classes. According to Petryshenka, the youth “is happy to join military patriotic clubs, where they study with pleasure and test themselves in physical training, stamina and knowledge of the history of their country”.

There are about 800 military patriotic clubs in Belarus now. Also, over 18 military patriotic clubs in the Interior Ministry troops have been created, over 11 – in the Military patriotic and the State Border Committee.

On May 10, 2023, the “Belarusian Investigative Center” (BIC) detected that in three months the employment service posted 182 vacancies of heads for patriotic education in schools and colleges across the whole country. One of them is even ready to employ a Russian mercenary from the Wagner Group for the job.

Experience of service in the armed forces is indicated as a mandatory requirement for a lot of those vacancies. The journalists of the BIC called several schools and colleges and introduced themselves as a mercenary of the Wagner Group who had fought in Ukraine and was looking for a job at that moment. One of Minsk schools said that such experience was suitable for them.

“A mandatory requirement for that position is the experience of work in the armed forces. It is clear, that you possess it”, the principal of the Minsk school №69 said in response to the question if a Wagner Group mercenary with Russian citizenship could apply for the job.

Back in June, 2022, the Minister of Education of Belarus at the time, Ihar Karpenka, reported about bringing back a position of a head for military and patriotic education to all the schools of the country; the job would involve occupation with pre-military training of teenagers by analogy with the Soviet practices. In his turn, the Defence Minister of the country, Viktor Khrenin, explained that first of all, regular military personnel would be employed for those jobs.

On May 11, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defence reported that training sessions with people subject for military duty were going to take place from May, 11 till June, 2 in Mozyrsky district and in Leninsky district of Minsk. The reservists would be sent to staff the command bodies of the territorial defence and military units of territorial troops.

During the course of the training session, the officials were supposed to practice a range of activities regarding formation of territorial troops and their training for performance of tasks. At the final stage of the training session, the obligated reservists were supposed to participate in command post exercises during which the conscripted reservists were to guard life-support facilities, ensure public order in the streets of cities and towns together with the police.

On May 12, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka signed a law on ratification of the agreement with the Russian Federation on the implementation of the Program of Military-Technical Cooperation until the year 2025. The agreement had been concluded on September 23, 2022. Then it was approved by both chambers of the Belarusian parliament.

The document officially gives effect to the program of military and technical cooperation. Within its framework, reciprocal deliveries of arms and equipment between Belarus and Russia were established, as well as joint projects of the Defence industries, development and production of armament, military equipment, dual-use and special-purpose goods. In total, the program consists of 199 activities.

On May 12, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus reported that several tank platoons of the Armed Forces of Belarus, in the course of check of combat readiness, perform the task of reinforcement of State borders guarding. The military establishment also noted that the personnel of the tank detachment had organized protection and Defence, as well as engineering equipment of the staging area, performed masking of weapons, military and special equipment during the complex check of combat readiness.

“Crews performed test fire from the armament of the tank T-72B on tank mean line. The military personnel of a support unit performed gunnery drills from AKS-74 assault rifles. Also, tactical training has been conducted with the servicemen”, the Ministry of Defence added.

On May 12, 2023, it became known that in Belarus they were going to reinforce the Defence of three bridges near the border with Ukraine and that over a thousand combat pistols with ammunition would be transferred to the paramilitary security forces of the Belarusian Railway. That decision was made by Lukashenka at a meeting with his uniformed agencies at the beginning of May after explosions that had happened on the railways of the Bryansk region in Russia.

It is stated, that the already existing list of guarded bridges is going to be completed by another three bridges on the rivers Pripyat, Goryn and Dnipro, situated not far from the border of Belarus and Ukraine. For that purpose, the Belarusian Railway has changed the regular schedule of the paramilitary security: from November of the last year, additional 130 shooters were hired there, whose responsibilities involve round-the-clock security of 13 strategic railway bridges.

Besides that, the regime attended to arm the employees of the paramilitary security forces of the Belarusian Railway: the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Internal Affairs are going to hand over 1132 Makarov 9 mm combat pistol sets and 76,976 bullets to them for a “free rent”.

On May 13, 2023, after several aircrafts and helicopters had been shot down in the Bryansk region in Russia, the Belarusian troops were converted to the alert level number one. The military reported about that to Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

“Three days after the events near us. I mean, those in Bryansk region, when four areal vehicles got shot down. We were forced to react to that. Since then, we are on a higher alert – our troops. That is why I am interested in the situation around the country. Naturally, also in directions and prospects for the development of that situation. Briefly. Without intimidation. About what is going on and what we are expecting in the short term”, Lukashenka said on May, 15. According to him, the situation in Belarus now “is not critical, but nevertheless, there are alarming factors”.

On May 16, 2023, amendments to the law “On military duty and military service” were published in Belarus. It was amended and received the status of a law. The most important amendment that has been made is that studying abroad is no longer considered to be a ground for deferment from military duty.

The deferment from the military service for Belarusians studying abroad has been canceled. Only those students shall be granted such a deferment who are studying abroad by the assignment of the republican government bodies in the framework of implementation of state programs. However, there are exceptions: the deferment can be obtained if on the date of entering of this law into force the student was studying in a foreign educational establishment in intramural form of study and had entered those educational establishments before the age of 18.

The law also stipulates that in case several citizens in one family are subject to call-up for compulsory military service, service in the reserves and have a right to deferral, it can be “granted to one of them according to the request of the family members (relatives)”.

On May 16, 2023, independent mass media paid attention to the fact that the Military Conscription and Enlistment Office of Gomel region is actively maintaining its TikTok account. Not long before that, training sessions with people subject for military duty had started in three regions of Belarus; they were encouraged to join the territorial defence. The TikTok of the Military Conscription and Enlistment Office could not miss that event, of course.

For example, on one video with pompous music, it boasted about trench dug to the letter. Also, probably, the territorial defence participants had dug it with entrenching shovels. Another video shows shooting exercise performed by mature looking men in camouflage.

On May 16, 2023, Permanent Representative of Belarus to the United Nations, Valentin Rybakov, said in the course of the debates in the United Nations Organization, that no practical measures for deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus had been taken for now.

“That announcement about deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus is, first of all, just a statement. Nothing practical has been made in that regard so”, Rybakov said. “Second, it is a sovereign decision of any state to defend itself from any threats and challenges the country encounters”. Rybakov assured that if any decision is made in that sphere, it would be “the decision of the government of Belarus, and not of any other state”.

On May 16, 2023, information appeared that in the course of the 11th International Exhibition of Arms and Military Machinery MILEX-2023, the Belarusian State-owned Foreign Trade Unitary Enterprise “Belspetsvneshtechnika” would present about a dozen of their own kinds of small arms.

In particular, machine guns VSK-100 and SMAR-100BPM, a sniper rifle SCR-1200М, sniper rifles “Stilet” and “Shepot”, PP-919 and PPV-919 submachine guns.

On May 17, 2023, it became known that a school military instructor, Dmitry Ukleyko, had been appointed chief of intelligence of the headquarters of the territorial defence of Gomel. The said school military instructor, before his appointment, took Belarusian children to a Russian cultural centre to “honor the memory” of the Russian military propagandist, Vladlen Tatarsky, killed in Saint Petersburg.

In his comment to a Telegram channel, Ukleyko said that during regional exercise of the territorial defence, the called reservists were handed arms and started performing shooting training.

Dmitry Ukleyko is a former border guard. Before, he held the office of Assistant Commander of the Gomel Border Group for public relations; he holds the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. Now, Ukleyko is a military instructor of Gomel school n. 59. In April, he took his pupils to the Russian cultural center to “honor the memory” of the supporter of Russian aggression against Ukraine and propagandist, Vladlen Tatarsky, killed in an explosion in a Saint-Petersburg coffee shop.

On May 18, 2023, during the Exhibition of Arms and Military Machinery MILEX-2023, the Chairman of the State Authority for Military Industry, Dmitry Pantus, said that the defence industry of Belarus had recently increased supplies of military machinery to Russia, first of all, due to the ongoing war.

“Of course, the volume of supplies of military goods manufactured in the Republic of Belarus to the Russian Federation has increased, and we should honestly admit it”, Pantus said.

When journalists asked to specify if the increase in weapons’ supply was caused by the war in Ukraine, he answered in the affirmative. At the same time, Pantus refused to give any figures. He also claimed that the war in Ukraine influenced the word of the State Authority for Military Industry. Besides that, he assured that the Belarusian defence industry was ready to supply “any type of armaments our brothers might be interested in” to the Russian Federation.

On May 18, 2023, the Chairman of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich,  said at the session of the CSTO PA Council that allegedly the Security Council note the attempts to bring weapons and explosives to the territory of Belarus through the Ukrainian border.

“In order to ensure stability of military security and military situation, the enforcement agencies of Belarus, first of all, the armed forces and other troops and military formations ave been transferred to an enhanced mode of service”, Volfovich claimed. According to him, the military transferred to the state border “are covering the activities of the bodies of the border service with the aim to prevent various provocations.”

On May 18, 2023, the readers of the Belarusian independent media told that men who have the status “unfit for military service in peace time” had been urgently called to military conscription and enlistment offices for reexamination. As it turned out, now they may be called up for military duty, as the medical restriction for the troop duties have become less strict.

On May 18, 2023, and in the few following days, the 11th International Exhibition of Arms and Military Machinery MILEX-2023 was held in Minsk. A lot of types of weapons not only from Belarus, but also from Russia, China and their allies were shown there.

For example, such as WS-43 – an extremely powerful hybrid of a suicide drone and a cruise missile produced in China, a multiple-launch rocket system Shkval (Belarus), a new generation radar Nebosklon (Belarus), a high-precision projectile Basir (Iran), MOP 236 fire support machine (Belarus), Mohajer-6 – one of the most famous Iranian drones, and other products.

On May 19, 2023, the Chairman of theState Authority for Military Industry, Dmitry Pantus, informed the journalists that his establishment had signed a record number of contracts at the weapons exhibition MILEX-2023, for the sum of $265 million. According to Pantus, the Belarusian multiple-launch rocket system “Polonaise” enjoyed the particular interest of the potential buyers.

“Polonaise is one of the main achievements of the defence industry complex of the Republic of Belarus. It is constantly arousing interest. Here I’d like to note, that not only Polonaise, but also other means of destruction. For instance, Shkval, modernized Uragan and the Belarusian Buk anti-aircraft missile system. They also arise interest, a number of negotiations are being held on that issue”, the head of the State Authority for Military Industry claimed.

On May 19, 2023, in Gomel, there were established checkpoints in the framework of the planned training session of the territorial Defence. Those checkpoints were constructed out of concrete blocks and sandbags and were totally identical to the checkpoints established in Kyiv and other cities of Ukraine at the very beginning of the Russian aggression against that country.

“The planned training session of the territorial defence have been held in Gomel since May, 11. At the final stage of the training session, the obligated reservists participate in command post exercises during which the which the detachments will have to guard life-support facilities. In connection with that, checkpoints are going to be organized in every district of the regional center, in certain streets determined by the plan of the training”, the chairman of Gomel City Executive Committee, Vladimir Privalov, informed.

On May 19, 2023, it became known that the day before Russian military echelon arrived to Belarus from the occupied Volnovakha. On May 11, from the station of Volnovakha, occupied by Russian troops, to the station Zaslonovo (Minsk department of the Belarusian Railway) the military echelon N. 961 was sent, consisting of 45 cars (four passenger, two covered cars with ammunition, 39 flat cars loaded with tracked and wheeled military vehicles). The echelon arrived at the destination station on May, 18.

On May 20, 2023, the Defence Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, during the military oath ceremony at the 72nd Joint Training Centre, claimed that the West was trying to sink in blood the Slavic brotherhood to keep their dominance.”

“We see with our own eyes how drastically the world order is changing. The West is trying to sink the Slavic brotherhood in blood and preserve their dominance with all means. The military infrastructure is being strengthened, NATO troops are being concentrated near the borders of the Union State”, the Defence Minister said.

That is why, he continued, “in order to preserve peace and stability in Belarus”, the army continues strengthening the state border, participate in checks of combat readiness and carry on combat duty.

“Military service is a hard male work. Intense military training, participation in training sessions, modern technology and armaments, acquisition of a military occupational specialty are awaiting for us. It is not going to be easy, but only shoulder to shoulder with our comrades in arms, under the leadership of experienced commanders, it is possible to overcome that path; and when you do – you will definitely reach manhood”, the head of the Ministry of Defence promised the conscripts.

On May 22, 2023, the assistant of the Defence Minister of Belarus, Leonid Kasinsky, said that the armament system of the Belarusian army had been renewed, and principles of combat training had been radically changed. The motive was the war in Ukraine.

“We have fundamentally revised the training system, have radically changed the programs of combat training, have made fundamental conclusions about purchase, modernization and equipment of the armed forces with new promising models of armaments and machinery”, Leonid Kasinsky said. “If we assess the nature of warfare today, only 10-15 years ago we considered that decisions on battle corrections could be made during minutes or hours. Today, we have arrived to the conclusion, that it is necessary to make decisions in real time”.

He also informed that Belarusian air forces had already been re-equipped and refit to carry tactical nuclear weapons, and the military personnel had already passed a training course on the use of S-400 missile systems and Iskander missile launchers.

On May 23, 2023, the  Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Serhiy Naiev, informed the journalists that 13 aircrafts and 12 helicopters of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation remain in airfields in Belarus.

“After the failed invasion of the Russian army from the territory of Belarus and consequent failures in the East and in the South of our country, the leadership of Belarus limited their cooperation with Russia to supplies of weapons, ammunition, as well as to providing training grounds for preparation of the mobilized persons”, Naiev underlined. “Currently, 13 aircrafts still remain in the territory of Belarus: Su-34 – 8 units, Su-30SM – 3 units, Su-24M – 2 units. Also, we observe there 12 helicopters Mi-8, Mi-24 and Mi-28N of the Russian Aerospace Forces”.

According to the data of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, approximately 2.5 thousand Russian military personnel are currently in the territory of Belarus, who are involved in military training, exercise and are deployed at training grounds of Belarus.

On May 23, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defence of Belarus informed that a meeting with officers-operators of the Armed Forces was held from May, 23 till may, 24. The event was a planned one, and it was held under the leadership of the deputy head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Chief of the Main Operational Directorate, Sergey Lagodiuk. The aim of the meeting was professional advancement of officers-operators in performing tasks for the intended purpose, the Ministry of Defence noted.

On May, 23, 2023, the head  of the State Authority for Military Industry, Dmitry Pantus, informed the journalists that the domestic multiple-launch rocket system Shkval had been adopted for service by the army.

“And there are a lot of such models. Our latest product, Sapphire grenade launcher complex, for example, is currently undergoing a very serious testing. We are planning to complete the work by September, it will also be adopted for service”, Pantus said.

The multiple-launch rocket system Shkval is another modernization of the Soviet system Grad, presented by the company “VOLATAVTO” (subsidiary of the Minsk Wheeled Tractor Plant). Its distinct characteristics: Shkval is based on Russian chassis “Ural-4320” with a diesel engine. The weight of the machine is 15 tons, the maximum road speed is 85 km per hour. In one volley, the MLRS can fire 40 missiles.

On May 24, 2023, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, said that Belarus was ready to provide a platform for negotiations on conflict in Ukraine.

“Belarus is doing and is ready to do everything what is needed in order to reach a peaceful settlement. I’ll remind: three round of negotiations [on Ukraine] in the last year were conducted on Belarusian ground. We are ready to reinstate that practice and provided everything what is needed to do that”, he said.

On May 25, 2023, the Defence Minister of Russia, Sergei Shoigu, arrived in Minsk to participate at the meeting of the Council of Defence Ministers of the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

“In the course of the meeting, the defence ministers are going to discuss challenges and threats to the military security in the regions of the collective security, issues of improvement of the crisis response system if the format of the Organization, as well as a number of other issues of mutual interest”, the communication of the Russian Ministry of Defence says.

On May 25, 2023, the Defence Ministers of Belarus and Russia signed documents defining the procedure for storage of nuclear weapons in a special storage facility on the territory of Belarus.

The Defence Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, at the meeting with his Russian colleague, Sergei Shoigu, reminded that in the framework of the military and military-technical cooperation, Russia had equipped our armed forces with new modern models of weapons.

“In the situation of non-fulfillment of security guarantees, given to the Republic of Belarus in the Budapest Memorandum on December 5, 1994, as well as in view of the continued aggressive rhetoric, supported by practical actions in relation to the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation from the side of the countries of the “collective” West, work on deployment of non-strategical nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation in the territory of the Republic of Belarus has been organized by the orders of the heads of our states. It is going to constitute a comprehensive response to the aggressive policy of the countries unfriendly to us and, as we hope, will make their governments to think about unacceptability of further escalation of the situation in the region”, Khrenin said.

On May 25, 2023, the Minister of Internal Affairs, Ivan Kubrakou, stated that Interior Ministry officials perform their duties on protection of order along the whole perimeter of the state border, and not just on its southern direction.

“Today, our officials perform their duties on ensuring public order in the regions not only boarding with Ukraine, but on the whole perimeter of the border. We react to all the challenges and threats, and any incoming information is immediately double-checked”, he said.

The minister reminded that special detachments to fight sabotage and reconnaissance groups had been created in the Interior Ministry troops, that had already begun to carry out their service.

On May 25, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka assured that Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus would be “totally safe”, that “no saboteurs would break through to them, including those from Poland”.

“If saboteurs want to penetrate your, our territory, there are plenty opportunities today to do that unnoticeably. I mean, as a professional I’ll tell you, without using the “green border”. Therefore, with saboteurs, it is plainly mundane reasoning in this case that they can penetrate, if the frontier is “not locked”. Saboteurs penetrate the territory by other routes. Therefore, do not worry about the “lock”, Lukashenka said. “You know, that we are punctual, accurate, economic people. That is why, don’t you worry about the nuclear weapons, we are responsible for them”.

On May 25, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka claimed that movement of nonstrategic nuclear weapons from Russian to the territory of Belarus had already started.

“He (the president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin) informed me that today he has signed the decree on our actions for deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus. It was about a specific document. A decision was made about the development of what had been said verbally. We had to prepare storage facilities and other things. We have done that, therefore, the movement of nuclear ammunition has already started”, Lukashenka said.

When answered the question whether the nonstrategic nuclear weapons were already in Belarus, Lukashenka replied: “Probably”.

On May 26, 2023, the Defence Minister, Viktor Khrenin, at the opening of the gathering “Military Security and Defence of the Republic of Belarus” in Gomel, claimed that the territorial defence, from a support system, is being transformed into a full-scale combat one.

The head of the military establishment underlined, that the decision to hold a gathering in Gomel region was not made not by chance, but because of the “conflict happening between Russia and Ukraine”. Also, the Defence Minister quoted Lukashenka that the “Belarusian peacefulness is not a synonym for self-sacrifice”, and that in case of any aggression “the response will be swift and harsh”.

On May 27, 2023, in Loshytsa microdistrict  in Minsk a checkpoint was established in the middle of a road: concrete blocks and sandbags. People wearing military uniforms were behind the roadblock.

The military cordoned off Vladzislau Syrakomlia street, at its very end. The place was inconspicuous, at a dead-end, near the railway stop “Loshytsa”. The roadblock looked like that: sandbags, concrete blocks and a gate arm. A field camp was nearby, the tent was covered with a camouflage net. The military explained that a training of territorial defence troops was going on and that it was supposed to continue for about another week.

On May 28, 2023, another set of of anti-aircraft missile systems S-400 arrived to Belarus. It was announced that it would be put on combat duty in the near future.

“Today is a landmark day for the Air Force and Air Defence Forces. We greet one more our detachment of anti-aircraft missile troops, armed with modern anti-aircraft missile systems S-400 that have arrived from a training ground of the Russian Federation. Our specialists, our combat crews at the training ground of the Russian Federation completed all the set tasks of training, improvement, combat use of the anti-aircraft missile system S-400”, the Commander of the Air Force and Air Defence of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Andrey Lukyanovich, said.

On May 28, 2023, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, speculated on STV channel on the question why Belarus needs nuclear weapons. In his opinion, an “offensive group is being formed” in the neighboring countries, so, in order to “cool those hot heads”, Belarus has only two options. The first one is to “re-target the economy for military needs”. The second one is to get tactical nuclear weapons into the country.

According to the information of Volfovich, an “offensive group is being formed, by and large,” in the territories of the neighboring countries. He gave, as an example, Poland, where, according to his information, 4% of the GDP is reserved for defence “to the detriment of the economy”. An element of strategic deterrence, he explained, is tactical nuclear weapons. By his words, the West just had not left another option for Belarus, but to have TNW deployed in the country.

On May 29, 2023, the press service of the Ministry of Defence of Belarus informed that a special training on providing troops with missiles was held in Belarus from May, 29, till June, 2. Persons subject to military service, conscripted to military technical support units, participated in the exercise.

“During the exercise, the military are going to practice provision of support to military formations and units with missiles and ammunition, ways of enhancing the survivability of the forces and means of technical support, elimination of consequences of missile and aviation strikes by a simulated enemy”, the Ministry of Defence informed.

On May 30, 2023, it became known that the Belarusian enterprise “Scientific and Technical Center LEMT” together with two Russian research institutions is designing a 100-kW laser module for destruction of unmanned combat air vehicles at a long distance. The prototype device should be ready this year.

“We have a joint project with two research institutes from Russia. We are creating a very powerful and perfect system – a laser to fight unmanned drones. We are talking about striking drones at a distance of tens of kilometers. Have you read “the Hyperboloid of engineer Garin”? It will also strike a drone with a laser beam”, LEMT representative said, specifying that the capacity of the system was going to reach 100 kW. As he noted, the cooperation program with Russian enterprises is planned to last for two years, the working prototype of the system is going to be ready in 2023.

It is also known about development of a module that will destroy drones with a laser beam at a distance of up to 1.5 km. The 30-kW system is equipped with a complex of recognition and identification of the drone type and is capable to track targets all by itself and destroy them with a laser beam regardless of their speed. It can be mounted on vehicles, as well as be transported in a container. The first experimental prototype has successfully proved itself during tests conducted by one of the clients from the Middle East region.

On May 30, 2023, Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a number of personnel appointments. In particular, he dismissed the Chairman of the State Border Committee from military service to the reserve and appointed a new one.

Lukashenka appointed Kanstantsin Molastau a new Chairman of the State Border Committee. Before his appointment as the Chairman of the State Border Committee, Kanstantsin Molastau held the office of the Head of the Grodno Border Group.

Anatoly Lapo, who had led the State Border Committee before, was dismissed from military service to the reserve. Lukashenka noted that he was a “very competent and intelligent person with extensive experience in military service”. “A real military person. We shall see. First, he rests a little, and then [he’ll be sent] to the service or to work’, Lukashenka ordered.

On May 30, 2023, the Ministry of Defence of Belarus informed that the Belarusian military were training to use Iskander-M missile launchers to perform missile strikes both with regular and special armament (i.e., with a nuclear combat element).

“Detachments of missile troops of the Armed Forces, equipped with Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system, are participating in the control exercise. During the exercise, the issues of preparation and performance of combat actions of missile troops, as well as fulfillment of training and combat tasks on preparation and performance of missile strikes both with regular and special armament are going to be worked out”, the communication of the military establishment reports.

On May 31, 2023, the deputies of the parliament of Belarus adopted on first reading the draft law “About people’s militia”. The draft law was presented by the Defence Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, and a member of the Standing Committee of the House of Representatives on National Security, Yauhen Zaitsau.

“The draft law is aimed at establishing the legal framework so that citizens of the Republic of Belarus, foreign citizens and stateless persons permanently resident in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, could exercise their right for voluntary participation in provision of the regime of martial law in the Republic of Belarus”, the parliament informed.

On May 31, 2023, the Defence Minister of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, during his speech in the parliament of Belarus, reported that basic military training was going to be taught to all the students of the country. According to him, a joint document with the Ministry of Education had already been adopted, and academic hours for studying the special course had been assigned.

Presenting to the deputies the draft law “About people’s militia” for examination on first reading, the head of the Ministry of Defence noted that further provision was made for the training of citizens who are willing to defend the country “voluntarily, but for some reasons are not subject for mobilization”. Such Belarusians are going to be trained in the use of arms. At the same time, as the minister noted, there are no age or gender restrictions for that.

Chapter 10. June-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On June 1, 2023, Minsk Territorial Defense fighters participated in a command-staff exercise in the Lenin District of the capital.

At the first site, situated on 27 Rokossovsky Avenue, the military practiced guarding and defending a strategically significant facility. Firing positions were established  along the perimeter, and the area was fortified with engineering barriers.

From Rokossovskogo Avenue, the participants of the exercise moved to Syrokomli Street, where a checkpoint was set up. Here, practical patrol procedures while on duty were rehearsed. The personnel from territorial forces, in coordination with law enforcement officials, conducted vehicle stops, document checks, and thorough inspections of the interiors and trunks.

On June 2, 2023, information emerged that the armed forces of Russia were conducting the rotation of their units deployed in Belarus in the framework of the regional grouping of troops.

“The personnel, weaponry, and equipment from the combined arms and tank formations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are arriving in the territory of the Republic of Belarus using a combined method“, Belarussian Defense Ministry reported.

On June 5, 2023, interdepartmental counter-terrorism exercises involving representatives from law enforcement agencies began in the territory of the Gomel region. The exercises lasted until June 7. Their objective was to prepare competent government agencies and other organizations for ‘combating the activities of terrorist organizations and illegal armed groups

Military equipment was involved in the exercises. It was announced that traffic restrictions might be imposed. Specifically, in Svetlogorsk, all vehicles entering and leaving the city were inspected.

On June 5, 2023, the Belarusian Investigative Center, while examining the state procurement portal, discovered a tender worth 3.1 million rubles. It revealed that the Ministry of Defense of Belarus decided to purchase Russian tactical unmanned aerial systems. These drones are used for reconnaissance purposes in the territory of Ukraine.

The discussion is about two sets of Supercam S350 (or equivalents) and one set of Supercam S150 (or equivalent). Each set includes the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) itself, controllable video cameras, batteries, remote control devices, tablets, and other equipment. The Supercam UAVs are developed by the Russian company “Unmanned Systems”, with the S350 model being one of their flagship products, primarily designed for video monitoring purposes. Its maximum flight duration is 4.5 hours, and it can transmit information over a distance of up to 100 kilometers. According to the manufacturer’s website, the complex can be used for “surveillance and reconnaissance” as well as for safeguarding national borders.

On June 6, 2023, it became known that conscripts in the Minsk district would be trained by instructors from the Wagner PMC. Here’s how it all unfolded: In early June, conscripts from the Minsk district were summoned to the district military enlistment office. The summons indicated that it was for data clarification, but upon arrival, it turned out that the reason was different. The men were informed that they would be called up for training at the end of the month, and they would be trained, including by mercenaries from the Wagner PMC, which was fighting in Ukraine.

As it became known, from June 19th to June 28th, 10-day training camps will be held on the basis of military unit 3214. A representative of the unit told about it at a meeting with the conscripts. According to him, instructors from the PMC Wagner will also be involved in training of Belarusians.

On June 7, 2023, the Belarussian Defense Ministry showcased the work of a special operations forces unit on the border with Ukraine. The demonstration highlighted the ongoing efforts of the Armed Forces of Belarus in strengthening border sections in the southern direction.

“The equipping, weapons, and military hardware enable them to fully accomplish their assigned tasks. The paratroopers utilize drones, thermal imaging devices, night vision scopes, and are prepared for various scenarios“, the Ministry of Defense press release stated. It further noted that the Special Operations Forces (SOF) personnel served in collaboration with border guards and police officers, “ensuring reliable security for the citizens of our country”.

On June 8, 2023, a parliamentary bill was published on the National legal Internet portal, according to which armed rebellion in Belarus will become a reason to introduce a state of emergency, and the infiltration of armed groups by extremist organizations from other countries’ territories will lead to the imposition of martial law.

The bill proposes amendments to the law on the state of emergency. Whereas previously the state of emergency regime could be introduced because of “riots”, in the future, the grounds may include “attempts of forcibly changing the constitutional order, seizure or appropriation of state power, armed rebellion, mass and other disturbances”.

The draft law also includes amendments to the law on martial law. Mention of extremist groups and organizations is added as a basis for imposing martial law. The amendments also provide that “in case of inaction by the President of the Republic of Belarus” the state of emergency or martial law can be imposed by the National People’s Assembly.

The bill has already been submitted to the parliament. It must be passed in the House of Representatives and then approved in the Council of the Republic, after which it will be sent for Alexander Lukashenko’s signature.

On June 8, 2023, the spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, reported during a briefing that the number of Russian military personnel in Belarus haв significantly decreased.

During the briefing, Demchenko stated that there were no signs of the creation of an offensive group in Belarus, and the number of Russian military personnel present in the country, primarily involved in training processes at training grounds, had considerably reduced.

“Based on our information, their current presence there is estimated to be no more than 1000, and this is significantly less than before“, he said. Demchenko also emphasized that the possibility of other Russian units’ arrival for training at Belarusian training grounds couldn’t be excluded in the future.

On June 9, 2023, during a meeting with Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin announced that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus would begin on July 7-8, immediately following the completion of the preparations for the storage facilities.

“On the most sensitive issues that we have agreed with you, everything’s on schedule. As you know, on 7-8 July, the preparation of the relevant storage facilities will be completed, and we will immediately begin activities related to the deployment of the relevant types of weapons on your territory. So everything is according to plan, everything is stable”, Putin said.

On June 10, 2023, at the Orsha Military Commissariat, fire training sessions were conducted with reserve officers. Based on the photos, reservists were being taught how to handle a pistol and Kalashnikov rifle in the courtyard of the military office. There was a residential high-rise building directly adjacent to the Improvised training site. The officers were observed aiming and firing either at the concrete wall or at the pallets behind which the building with windows was located. From the photos in the report, it`s evident that some of them were even unable to hold assault rifles correctly.

On June 10, 2023, the “Belarusian Railway Community” reported that during the 10 months of the war, more than 131 thousand tons of ammunition had been transported by rail from Belarus to Russia. According to railway representatives, the shipment of ammunition from Belarusian storage arsenals to Russia is still ongoing. On average, the volume of transportation by rail varies from 5 thousand to 10 thousand tons per month.

On June 11, 2023, conscripts took an oath at the 72nd Guards Joint Training Center located in the neighbourhood Pechi of Borisov. After the ceremony, the military personnel were handed cards featuring a photo of Lukashenko and the quote “Beloved one is not given away”. On the reverse side of the cards was parting words for military duty from the head of the 72nd center, Vadim Surov, stating that “Male maturity is is determined by many factors, one of which is military service”.

On June 13, 2023, during a working trip to the Minsk region, Alexander Lukashenko was informed about the establishment of domestic ammunition production.

Upon arrival at one of the military-industrial complex enterprises in the Minsk region, Lukashenko inquired whether the responsible officials had fulfilled their promises regarding the establishment of domestic ammunition production.

“Dear Comrade Commander-in-Chief, in accordance with your instruction regarding the establishment of production for the most commonly used types of ammunition in the Republic of Belarus, we have organized the necessary work,” reported Dmitry Pantus, Chairman of the State Military-Industrial Committee.

According to Pantus, this work was initiated in November 2022, and at present, more than fifty shell and mechanical components for such types of ammunition are being manufactured at the enterprises of the State Military-Industrial Committee and the Ministry of Industry.

On June 13, 2023, during a working trip to the Minsk region, Alexander Lukashenko called the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus. According to his statements, the only reason for using nuclear weapons from Belarus would be in response to aggression against the country. He emphasized that it serves as a “weapon of deterrence”, and that “hardly anyone would want to engage in a war with a country possessing such weapons”.

Alexander Lukashenko also stated that he would like to avoid situations where nuclear weapons would need to be used. “God forbid, I have to make a decision on the use of these weapons in modern times. But there will be no hesitation if aggression is directed against us,” he emphasized.

On June 13, 2023, Alexander Lukashenko admitted in an interview with the Russian propagandist Olga Skabeeva that he would not be able to independently use the tactical nuclear weapons that Russia plans to deploy in Belarus. He will have to coordinate this issue beforehand with the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin.

“I often hear people say, ‘Oh, he won’t use that Russian weapon without Russia.’ Listen, if a war starts, I’m not going to stand by and watch. Absolutely not. I pick up the phone – wherever he (Vladimir Putin) may be, he calls, and I pick up the phone at any moment. Even right now. So, well, what is the problem of coordinating some kind of strike? It’s not a question! There is nothing to argue about. We’ve already agreed on that. Let the enemies tremble,” Lukashenka said.

In a conversation with Skabeyeva, Lujashenko has also revealed that the tactical nuclear weapons deployed by Russia in Belarus are three times more powerful than the bombs used by the USA in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. According to him, these weapons will be stored at multiple locations.

“We have missiles and bombs. We received them from Russia. The bomb is three times more powerful than the ones used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There, over 80 thousand people died instantly, 250 from a single strike. And this bomb is three times more powerful. Well, I don’t know, maybe over a million people would perish at once. God forbid to use this weapon,” said Lukashenko.

On June 15, 2023, the House of Representatives approved in the second reading the bill on people’s militia. According to the statement of Deputy Yevgeny Zaytsev, the bill will allow volunteers to keep weapons with them.

“The law stipulates the storage of weapons with the volunteer. It will be kept at home, and the procedures for storing and preserving this weapon will be determined by relevant documents and a resolution of the Council of Ministers,” Zaytsev stated.

On June 15, 2023, it became known that the capital’s Special Purpose Unit 3214 of the Belarussian Interior Ministry’s Internal Troops, which had been involved in dispersing protests in 2020, would spend more than 10 million budget rubles, or $3 million, for its needs. This is one of the most expensive tenders for military units in recent years.

The 3214 Special Purpose Unit of the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is planning to spend the most funds on constructing garages and a car wash for their vehicles. The reconstruction of the equipment storage facilities in the unit’s vehicle fleet will cost the budget 6.568 million rubles. According to the documents, the contractor plans to completely dismantle the old building, construct a new one, and provide all the necessary infrastructure, including electricity, water, heating, sewage, and install video surveillance.

The second major construction project is the reconstruction of the building for the car wash, which costs 4.072 million rubles. The process is similar: demolition of the old building and construction of a new one with the connection of engineering communications.

The tender for the selection of the contractor for both projects took place in March. The new buildings are expected to be completed by January 2024. The contractor is “Construction Trust No. 35”. The company has previous experience working on military contracts, such as restructuring a barracks in Pechi and constructing a military settlement in Vornyany.

On June 15, 2023, it was reported that in several settlements near Gomel, local authorities had started refusing to allocate land for citizens` construction to citizens since the spring of 2023. The residents of the Gomel region believe that this decision is connected to the military unit nearby.

As told by one of the local residents, obtaining land for construction has recently become impossible in Pribor, Novaya Buda, and Pioner of the Pribor Village Council in Gomel district. People associate this prohibition with the nearby active military base, which has come under the control of Russian forces.

A journalist, acting on behalf of a local resident from Gomel district, called the Pribor Village Council to inquire about the possibility of obtaining land for construction. One was informed that plots were being allocated in the neighboring Randovka, but “in Pribor and Pioner, it is prohibited”.

“That’s such restriction. It’s connected with the fact that we have a military unit within our village council’s territory. Presently, it is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Defense,” explained the village council representative.

Near the settlement of Pribor, there is the 1393rd Military Unit, an artillery ammunition base belonging to the Belarussian Defense Ministry. The primary purpose of this base is to house, store, maintain, and ensure the technical readiness of artillery ammunition, small arms cartridges, and close combat munitions. Furthermore, it plays a crucial role in providing uninterrupted ammunition support to the armed forces.

On June 16, 2023, during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin announced that the first nuclear warheads had already been delivered to Belarus.

“We have moved part of this tactical nuclear weapons to Belarusian territory. It has happened. But only the first one. This is the first part. By the end of summer, we will complete this work entirely,” Putin said.

On June 16, 2023, analysts from the “Open Procurements” project, who analyzed the purchases of the Ministry of Defense, concluded that in Belarus, in recent years, there had been a noticeable increase in expenditures on military equipment repairs.

Moreover, the largest portion of the funds was allocated to 22 procurements for the repair and maintenance of weapons and armament systems, totaling 168,997,000 rubles. Aсcording to analysts, “It is hard to imagine that the internal Belarusan demand for such services has grown several times, which means that other equipment, obviously Russian, will be repaired and modernised.”

On June 16, 2023, a reader from the capital informed reporters that sandbags had appeared at the entrance of the Minsk District Military Commissariat, and barbed wire was going to be stretched around the territory. According to the eyewitness, he noticed these “fortifications” recently. The reception office of the Minsk District Military Commissariat clarified that those measures were not related to any combat actions and were part of military exercises.

On June 19, 2023, Alexey Polischuk, the Director of the Second Department of the CIS Countries at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the agreement regarding the presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) on the territory of Belarus did not presuppose a time frame.

“As for possible time frame for the presence of Russian TNW on the territory of Belarus, there are no limitations on this matter in the Russian-Belarusian agreements,” he said. “In the current geopolitical situation, the main conditions for the hypothetical return of TNW to Russia could be the abandonment by the United States and NATO of a course aimed at undermining the security and sovereignty of Russia and Belarus.”

On June 19, 2023, Major General Leonid Kasinsky, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Ideological Work in the Armed Forces, stated that the People’s Militia in Belarus emerged as an initiative of the Belarusian people.

“The attitude of people has changed significantly. Moreover, I’ll tell you a little secret, today there is also a lot of talk about the people’s militia. But let me reveal a little secret, the initiative for the people’s militia, essentially, came from the people themselves. It’s a people’s initiative,” stated Kasinsky.

According to him, when “the events of 2022 began” (Note: presumably, the main ideologist of the Belarusian Defense Ministry is referring to the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine) and “broader issues, threats, and challenges started to be covered”, Belarusians “began to call”.

“There were a lot of calls and appeals. When people said, for example, ‘I didn’t receive a military specialty for certain reasons, or I’m no longer in military service, but I’m full of strength and energy, give me the opportunity to exercise my right to defend the country.’ And then we started working on this issue and formalized it as the People’s Militia. So, it is people’s initiative,” assured Kasinsky.

On June 20, 2023, it became known that defensive fortifications were being built near Zhabinka in Belarus. In the vicinity of the village of Saki (Zhabinka district, Brest region), engineering works have commenced to equip firing positions, including the construction of trench systems and dug-out.

Considering the scale of the construction, it can be concluded that at least a stronghold is being established, which could be part of a fortified area. The distance from the construction site to the city of Zhabinka is 5 kilometers, to the border with Poland – 28 kilometers, and to the border with Ukraine – 47 kilometers, respectively.

On June 21, 2023, it was announced that mobilization exercises had commenced with the military commissariats of the Minsk region, scheduled to take place from June 21 to June 30.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense emphasized that these exercises were conducted annually as part of the Armed Forces’ training plan with the main objective to assess the readiness of local executive authorities, military commissariats, government agencies, and organizations to fulfill their designated tasks.

Throughout the exercises, infrastructure facilities will be deployed, conscripts and automotive equipment will be mobilized, with a particular focus on staffing military commissariats.

On June 21, 2023, the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, announced that Belarus was considering the cancellation of military service deferment for students.

According to him, when a first-year student is called up to the armed forces, “He will serve for one year instead of a year and a half, return to the second year more mature and better prepared, and after four years of graduating from the institute, he won’t have to rack his brain whether to join the armed forces or not.”

“The President has stated that it is indeed necessary to consider, discuss, listen to the opinions of people, students, and young individuals, and then make an appropriate decision,” said Volfovich.

On June 22, 2023, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported a slight increase in the number of Russian military personnel on the territory of Belarus. Spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, made this statement during a television marathon.

“Russian military personnel continue to remain on Belarusian territory. However, they are more involved in training and preparations. Fortunately, their current numbers are relatively small. We do not observe that Russia has sufficient forces in Belarus to conduct a repeat invasion from this direction,” stated Demchenko.

Demchenko recalled that earlier this year and at the end of the previous year, the State Border Guard Service reported the presence of around 10-11 thousand Russian military personnel in Belarus. “At the moment, we are registering their presence at a level of approximately 1,500 servicemen. Their numbers have increased slightly in recent times, by about 500 people,” he added.

On June 22, 2023, the Pervomaisky Court of Minsk considered a criminal case against a serviceman who was accused of using his position as a commander to “turn a blind eye” to violations committed by soldiers and, in return, extorted money and property from them.

The accused served in the Air Force and Air Defense Forces and held the position of the 2nd Platoon Commander in the Guard Company of a separate Guard and Service Battalion. Apparently, we are talking about the 483rd Battalion (Military Unit 45017) – the only unit of its kind in Minsk.

For some time, the person under investigation performed the duties of a company commander. During this period, he found a mobile phone in the possession of a lance corporal (their use is prohibited on the military base). The commander was obligated to confiscate the phone, report it to higher authorities, conduct an investigation, and brought the perpetrators to justice. Instead, he returned the phone to the lance corporal without any investigation in exchange for an electronic cigarette worth 45 rubles. Subsequently, a similar situation occurred again.

The man was charged with accepting a bribe, including repeated offenses (Part 1 and Part 2 of Article 430 of the Criminal Code), and abuse of power (Part 1 of Article 455 of the Criminal Code). During the trial, the military officer did not admit his guilt.

As a result, the court found the man guilty and sentenced him to 3.5 years of imprisonment. However, as a first-time offender and having a young child, he was granted a three-year deferment. Nevertheless, the former commander did not get away with just that. He was fined 300 base amounts (12,950 rubles) and prohibited from holding organizational and managerial positions for 5 years. Additionally, he was stripped of his military rank “Senior Lieutenant”.

On June 22, 2023, at around 1 p.m., a Mi-24 helicopter made a “hard landing” (i.e. it crashed)  in Baranovichi district of Brest region. The helicopter crew members sustained injuries, but there were no casualties on the ground. An investigative commission is establishing the causes of the accident.

The incident occurred near the M1 highway between Ivatsevichy and Baranovichy. The crash site was attended by the Emergencies Ministry. It is known that the crashed helicopter belonged to the Russian Airspace Forces.

On June 23, 2023, the Deputy Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Vadym Skibitsky, told journalists that Russian MiG-31K during training flights over Belarus had practiced missile launches not only towards Ukraine but also towards Poland and Germany. The spokesperson emphasized that the MiG-31K aircraft were carriers of hypersonic missiles “Kinjal”.

“The military intelligence has repeatedly recorded that during training flights over Belarus, MiG-31K aircraft practiced missile launch exercises not only towards Ukraine but also towards the territories of Poland and Germany,” Skibitsky stated.

On June 24, 2023, the Telegram channel of the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced upcoming military exercises in the Brest region from June 26 to June 28. The exercises will involve the participation of territorial troops from Luninetsky District and the People’s Militia.

During the exercises, the focus will be on improving the skills of military personnel in commanding subordinates and training the personnel of territorial troops to fulfill their duties in solving territorial defense tasks. During the gathering, they will call up reservists to fill the regular positions, as well as the people’s militia squad, which was formed from volunteers of the district.

They will also practice guarding and defending territorial defense facilities, combating sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the hypothetical enemy, and ensuring measures during a martial law, including the involvement of the people’s militia squad.

On June 25, 2023, Belarus was abuzz with discussions surrounding the outcome of the Wagner Group’s mutiny in Russia. It was reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin had abandoned the “march to Moscow” plan and agreed to leave for Belarus, the criminal case against him would be terminated. The Kremlin mentioned that Alexander Lukashenko, who had a long-standing acquaintance with Prigozhin, had played a pivotal role in providing intermediary services during the negotiations with the head of the Wagner Group.

On June 26, 2023, in Belarus, training exercises with former special forces personnel commenced. 250 former sergeants and officers will undergo a 10-day training. According to available information, the selection was conducted from 600 individuals. “Here are fighters, probably the youngest being 45 years old, and others in the 50-55 age range,”Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Nikolai Karpenkov stated.

As reported, some of them haven’t handled weapons for 5 or 10 years. The veterans aim to gain new experience and “learn to operate drones”. The training is conducted by instructors with the “necessary combat experience”.

On June 26, 2023, it was announced that from June 27 to July 21, a training gathering would  be conducted in the Soligorsk district with military conscripts of territorial troops under the guidance of the chairman of the Soligorsk District Executive Committee.

During the gathering, the reception of military conscripts from territorial troops is planned, along with their comprehensive support involving the “local base for mobilization deployment”. Additionally, preparations for military conscripts to perform tasks in accordance with military-accounting specialties and designated positions are being planned.

The command staff will have to restore their proficiency in managing subordinates, and preparations will be carried out in the area to conduct territorial defense. The issues of “formation, training and use of a people’s militia unit” will be practiced.

On June 27, 2023, Alexander Lukashenko explained to Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin during their meeting how Wagner Group mercenaries could assist the Belarusian army.

“There’s a lot of talk and chatter now, ‘Wagner, Wagner, Wagner.’ People don’t understand that we approach this pragmatically. If their commanders come to us and help us… Experience. Listen, they are on the frontlines – assault squads. They will tell us what’s important now. Putin told me last time: counter-battery warfare, it’s essential. Drones. They’ve been through it. They’ll share about weapons: what worked well, what didn’t. Tactics, armament, how to advance, how to defend. It’s invaluable. That’s what we need to take from the Wagnerites”, said Lukashenko.

On June 27, 2023, the press service of Lukashenko reported that Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin had presented a souvenir – a replica of the first nuclear bomb of the USSR – to Alexander Lukashenko during a working meeting. According to the report, the head of the defense ministry presented the “gift” before his reporting.

On June 27, 2023, during the ceremony of awarding general epaulettes at the Palace of Independence, Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus did not build camps for the Wagner Group mercenaries, but if necessary, they would provide assistance with their accommodation.

“We are not currently building any camps. But if they want (I understand they are looking at specific areas), we will accommodate them. Put up your tents, please. Currently, they are in their own camps in Luhansk. As Prigozhin [founder of Wagner Group] told me in a phone call yesterday, someone would sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense, with Shoygu [Russian Defense Minister]. But the most important thing for me was to reach an agreement with Putin so that he would not touch them. He promised, and he keeps his promise. They want to go back to their families. Well, for God’s sake,” Lukashenko said. “We offered them one of the abandoned military units. Please, the fence is there, everything is there. Put up your tents. We will help as much as we can. Until they determine what to do.”

On June 27, 2023, Alexander Lukashenko instructed high-ranking officials of the security forces to determine the algorithm for the use of Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus. This task was assigned to Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus Viktor Gulevich, and Chairman of the State Security Committee Ivan Tertel.

“The basis of it should be that we have to use it in a difficult moment if we are attacked. Consequently, they will attack the Union State, as they have already begun stating in Russia,” Lukashenko said.

On June 28, 2023, Belarusian deputies adopted on the first reading the draft law “On Ratifying the Agreement between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation on the Establishment and Operation of Joint Training and Combat Centers for Military Personnel of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation”.

“The agreement addresses matters related to the organization, establishment, and operation of joint training and combat centers for military personnel from the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. These centers will be based on military units of both countries and outline their core objectives and the procedure for cooperation between the defense ministries to ensure comprehensive support for these centers,” stated the lower chamber of the Belarussian Parliament

On June 30, 2023, the Belarussian Defense Ministry announced that another S-400 “Triumf” division had been placed on combat duty. According to the agency’s statement, the personnel have undergone training, mastered modern equipment, practiced skills at the Kapustin Yar range in Russia, and are ready to fulfill the main task entrusted to the Air Defense Forces.

“Today is undoubtedly a landmark day not only for the division, which is going on combat duty today, but also for the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. A unit armed with modern, state-of-the-art S-400 air defense missile systems has taken up combat duty. And what is even more important – this happened on the eve of our most significant celebration – the Independence Day of the Republic of Belarus”, said Major General Andrey Lukyanovich, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces.

Chapter 11. July-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On July 2, 2023,

Deputy Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces for Ideological Work – Head of the Department, Anatoly Bulavko, stated in a television broadcast on the STV state channel that three years ago, Belarus had recorded NATO aviation flights in the country ranging from 20 to 30 cases per month at present, there were 70, and at times, there could be as many as 30 flights in a single day.

“We need to deploy new forces and assets because the intensity of aviation flights, including reconnaissance flights, defies common sense. Unfortunately, this can only be explained by a few reasons. The first is the opening of our air defense system. The rhetorical question is: why is this necessary? The second is the collection of intelligence on our military potential. Again, the question arises: for what purpose? The third element is the occupation of airspace by NATO pilots,” Anatoly Bulavko explained.

According to him, three years ago, the number of flights per month ranged from 20 to 30, but then this figure reached 70.

“At times, there have been moments when up to 30 aircraft were in the airspace near our state borders in a single day. Therefore, it’s hard to talk about any norm. The norm is when passenger planes are flying,” Bulavko said.

On July 5, 2023,

As reported by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, a demonstration of comprehensive tactical and special exercises was conducted at the Brest training ground with one of the units from the 38th Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade. During these exercises, Belarusian military personnel used laser weapons.

The training took place at seven training points. They practiced “the correct procedure for occupying and equipping the concentration area, taking into account the experience of special military operation in Ukraine”, as reported by the military authorities. Additionally, they conducted exercises “to work out for forthcoming tasks using laser weapons in conditions as close as possible to combat.” They also exercised combat shooting stage.

On July 5, 2023,

Satellite images from the Planet Labs service have recorded the dismantling of training tent camps at three primary Belarusian training sites, where Russian mobilized soldiers were trained. It remains unclear whether these facilities will be relocated to other areas or repurposed for different uses. The mentioned training sites include Obuz-Lesnovsky training ground near Baranovichi, Lepelsky military range near Lepel, and Repishche training ground near Osipovichi.

On July 6, 2023,

During a meeting with journalists of foreign media, Alexander Lukashenko did not insist that Minsk would have control over Russian nuclear warheads on the territory of Belarus, but pointed out that even when working out less important operations, “the leaders of both countries have numerous phone conversations, meetings, and discussions”.

“The use of nuclear weapons, even if Russia were to decide to do so, I am confident that it would consult with its closest ally. Moreover, it’s us,” Lukashenko said. He also confirmed the relocation of Russian nuclear warheads to Belarus, emphasizing that it was not accomplished via land routes. In response to inquiries about when Russia would complete the deployment of its tactical nuclear weapons, Lukashenko replied, “by the end of the year.”

On July 6, 2023,

In Lida, a 28-year-old man was sentenced for draft evasion despite being beyond the draft age. The above-mentioned man received a military summons two years ago and subsequently left for Russia, where he was apprehended.

In August 2021, a resident of Lida received a summons for a medical examination at the district military commissariat – at that time, he was 26 years old, which meant he was still liable for compulsory military service (In Belarus, individuals can be conscripted for compulsory military service until the age of 27).

The young man decided not to appear as instructed and instead left for Russia. There, he was detained in January 2023 and extradited back to his homeland. The Lida District Court found the man guilty of draft evasion (Part 1 of Article 435 of the Criminal Code) and sentenced him to one and a half years in in a general regime penal colony.

On July 7, 2023,

Leonid Kasinsky, the Assistant secretary of defense for Ideological Work in the Armed Forces and the Chief of the Main Directorate for Ideological Work of the Belarussian Defense Ministry, has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces are ready to adopt “the richest experience” of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC).

“We are ready and willing to adopt the richest experience of conducting combat operations and tactical techniques. We gladly embrace this experience for use within the Belarusian army,” Leonid Kasinsky said, responding to the question of how the Belarusian army could benefit from the Wagner PMC’s experience. In his opinion, Wagner mercenaries should also learn from Belarusian military personnel.

On July 8, 2023,

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) conducted an analysis of satellite imagery of military and railway facilities within Belarus and found no signs of the deployment or transportation of Russian nuclear weapons. This information is documented in their respective report.

Based on the imagery analysis, scientists have identified the construction of a double security perimeter fence around a military depot near Osipovichi, which potentially could serve as a storage site for nuclear weapons. The installation of these additional fences began shortly after a senior Russian Ministry of Defense official visited the facility for inspection, as reported in a сertain classified CIA document from late February.

The report also addresses the potential deployment of nuclear weapons at the airfield near Lida. No visual confirmations of such deployment have been found. There have also been certain assumptions that the Baranovichi airbase, equipped with more modern Su-30SM fighters, could be considered as a potential site for hosting nuclear weapons. However, signs of the necessary upgrades for this purpose have not been detected there either.

On July 11, 2023,

The Commander of the Internal Troops, Nikolai Karpenkov, who attended the combat training of the “Storm” squad, said that three new special forces squads of the Belarussian Interior Ministry’s Internal Troops had been created in the Belarussian regional centers.

The new special units within the Internal Troops are being created “to enhance our combat capabilities during special period”. As per Karpenkov’s remarks, everything is going according to plan, and there are already three squads in operation: “Storm” in Brest, “Typhoon” in Grodno, and “Buran” in Gomel. These units were established in early May of this year, and they are currently fully staffed, combat-ready, and carrying out their assigned tasks, as stated by the Commander of the Internal Troops. The units have recruited contract personnel with a minimum of 3-5 years of experience in the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

The squads have begun to receive armored vehicles, and video from the exercise shows fighters carrying automatic grenade launchers. As per Karpenkov’s statement, they also possess thermal imaging devices, scopes, quadcopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles, which include both reconnaissance and combat drones.

On July 12, 2023,

Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs, Nikolai Karpenkov, informed reporters that the interior troops’ service members were planning joint combat training with mercenaries from the private military company “Wagner Group”.

“Today, we are in negotiations with representatives of the Wagner Group, who will engage in combat training with us and share their invaluable combat experience. SOBR and Almaz groups will continue to come here,” said Nikolai Karpenkov.

On July 14, 2023,

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus has reported that military conscripts from Soligorsk, who are part of territorial defense, are undergoing training near Osipovichi. The training is being conducted by instructors from the Wagner Group, who have arrived in Belarus.

The department showed a television segment showcasing training sessions. In this television story, instructors are seen providing instruction to conscripts on tactical shooting and battlefield maneuvers. As per the plot, these instructors are mercenaries of the Wagner Group, sharing their valuable combat expertise and detailing the nuances of operations in different conditions.

On July 14, 2023,

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense, in collaboration with the leadership of the private military company “Wagner,” has formulated a “roadmap of cooperation for the near future focused on training and experience exchange among units representing different branches of the military”. This was reported by the press service of the Belarusian defense department.

The Ministry of Defense has not disclosed the further details of the “roadmap” but they have mentioned about receiving numerous inquiries “on the issue of the future joint training system for the Belarussian Armed Forces and Wagner PMC fighters”. The defense department has also pledged to continue providing updates on “upcoming work in this direction”.

On July 14, 2023,

Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Nikolai Karpenkov has stated that the new special forces units of the Internal Troops use the experience of the People’s Commissariat for Internal Affairs (NKVD) in their training. On July 14, Karpenkov inspected the equipment and combat readiness of the new “Buran” special forces detachment in Gomel.

“We are trying to implement the unique and rich experience found in NKVD units, when they identified saboteurs, polizei, and collaborators who were hiding in our forests,” stated Karpenkov.

He noted that the Interior Ministry’s special forces units were capable of executing missions both in civilian clothing, such as surveillance, and in full combat gear, carrying out military special operations.

“Groups like these [in the NKVD], they were called Chekist-military units. It is through close collaboration with the criminal police that we will train units capable of combining the experience of such Chekist-military groups,” Karpenkov stated.

On July 15, 2023,

In the morning of July 15th, a large column of passenger and cargo vehicles with license plates from the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LDPR) was observed in Belarus. The convergence of various factors strongly suggests that this was the column of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC). It entered Belarus from Russia overnight, near the town of Krichev. The column comprised no less than 60 vehicles, encompassing a variety of types, including pickup trucks, large trucks, UAZ “Bukhanka” vehicles, and at least three buses for transporting people. The column was accompanied by the Belarusian State Automobile Inspection.

On July 17, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko, as reported by his press service, has signed a package of laws. Among them was the law “On People’s Militia”. He also put his signature on the document ratifying the agreement between Belarus and Russia concerning the establishment and operation of joint training and combat centers for military personnel.

The law “On People’s Militia” regulates the establishment of a people’s militia in various regions of the country in case of introducing a martial law. It outlines the procedure for recruiting citizens into these units, their roles and responsibilities, leadership structure, as well as the rights and social guarantees for the militia members. Under this law, militias will assist the security forces in maintaining a martial law, including they will be provided with the authority to inspect vehicles and and housing, seize cars, detain individuals, and use weapons.

The agreement with Russia regarding the creation and operation of joint training and combat centers for the preparation of armed forces personnel regulates the establishment of such centers based on military units from both countries. It outlines their core objectives and defines the procedure for collaboration between the respective defense ministries in supporting these centers.

On July 18, 2023,

Another column of the Wagner PMC has arrived in Belarus. It consisted of approximately 80 vehicles. The mercenary column was moving from Bobruisk towards Osipovichi and the camp located in the village of Tsel along the M5 highway. It included at least 80 vehicles of various modifications: : 18 trucks, over 20 UAZ pickups, cargo vans, about 20 UAZ “Bukhanka” vehicles, as well as PAZ buses, and several tarpaulin-covered Ural and KamAZ trucks. The vehicles had license plates of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LDPR).

On July 18, 2023,

Major General Andrey Matievich has been appointed as the First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Belarussian Armed Forces. The corresponding decree No. 212 was signed by Alexander Lukashenko. Previously, Matyevich held a slightly lower position as the Deputy Chief of the General Staff and the Head of the Territorial Defense Department.

Andrey Matievich was born on September 2, 1971, in the village of Bolshoye Olzhevo in the Lida District. He studied at the Minsk Suvorov Military School, then graduated from the Almaty Higher Command School, followed by the Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation named after Frunze, as well as the General Staff Academy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. He graduated from all these institutions with honors or distinction (with a gold medal or a red diploma). He served in the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff and assumed the leadership of territorial defense in 2020. In 2021, Lukashenko personally awarded him the rank of Major General, presenting him with the corresponding epaulettes.

On July 19, 2023,

A video featuring Yevgeny Prigozhin was published on Russian military Telegram channels. In the video, the owner of the PMC greets the mercenaries with “arrival on Belarusian territory” and comments on the war in Ukraine.

As reported, the video was filmed during the transfer of the Wagner PMC flag from the base in the Russian village of Molkino to the Wagner mercenaries’ camp in Belarus. Everything takes place late in the evening, but Prigozhin’s voice is easily recognizable. The head of the PMC welcomes the mercenaries to Belarus, stating that they have fought valiantly in Ukraine, “but now, what is happening on the front lines is a disgrace in which we should not participate, and we should wait for the moment when we can fully demonstrate ourselves.”

“The decision has been made that we will stay in Belarus for some time. During this time, I am confident that we will transform the Belarusian army into the second army in the world, and if necessary, we will stand up for them,” says Prigozhin. “We continue to prepare further, enhance our capabilities, and embark on a new path – to Africa.”

On July 19, 2023,

A member of the so-called council of Wagner PMC commanders, operating under the alias “Marx”, has declared that up to 10,000 mercenaries are planning to arrive in Belarus. He also labeled the Russian Defense Ministry’s claim that 33,000 militants had signed a contract with the military as falsehood.

“I can’t tell you from where the 33,000 who joined the Defense Ministry came. Let’s delve into the actual figures: A total of 78 thousand fighters of the PMC Wagner went through our Ukrainian mission. Of them, 49,000 were prisoners At the time of the Bahmut capture on May 20th, 22,000 fighters were killed, and 40,000 were wounded. 25,000 fighters were alive and and in good health, plus the wounded undergoing treatment. Out of them, up to 10,000 are leaving for Belarus.Already, 15,000 have gone on vacation I do not know how the 33 thousand who left for the military were formed. If all those killed and on leave had indeed signed contracts, then such a number might be possible.You can’t argue with that,” he stated.

On July 20, 2023,

As reported by the Ministry of Defense’s press service, the Belarusian Armed Forces continue joint training with Wagner PMC fighters. According to the military department, over the course of a week, special operations units will work together with PMC representatives to practice training and combat tasks at the Brest training ground.

The Ministry of Defense has noted that during the exercises “emphasis is placed on issues related to organizing the joint-force cooperation various types of forces during a fire attack, The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance and fire strikes, tactical methods for maneuvering on the battlefield under conditions of intense enemy fire, the use of strike unmanned aerial vehicles, tactics of concealing troops and objects, as well as the psychological preparation of military personnel“.

On July 20, 2023,

During his appearance on state television сhannel, Dmitry Shevtsov, the Secretary General of the Belarus Red Cross Society (BRCS) emphasized, “The countries of the “collective West” should understand that Belarus and Russia are genuinely prepared to use nuclear weapons if necessary“.

On July 22, 2023,

As reported by CNN, the US Department of Defense’s intelligence agency “has no grounds to doubt” Vladimir Putin’s statement that Russia has supplied Belarus with the first batch of tactical nuclear weapons. American intelligence officials did not disclose the source of this information but acknowledged the difficulty in tracking the movement of nuclear weapons, even through satellite imagery.

Also, the intelligence service does not believe that Alexander Lukashenko will have any control over nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the US side does not consider that the movement of weapons to Belarus “will alter the global balance of power or increase the risk of a nuclear strike, as it will be stored in a stockpile rather than rather than used on the front lines.”

On July 22, 2023,

The Washington Post, an American edition, has published a recent satellite image of the Wagner PMC base near Osipovichi, taken on July 22. The image was provided by the companies Maxar Technologies and Umbra. According to Maxar’s Senior Director, Steven Wood, the image reveals that “dozens, if not hundreds, of vehicles and equipment have recently arrived at the facility”.

“For instance, in today’s image, it is evident that the field’s central part is now entirely occupied by some objects. The image quality does not allow us to discern the nature of these objects, but with a high degree of probability, they appear to be vehicles. On the 19th, they only occupied half of the green area, whereas now they cover almost the entire space. At the same time, the makeshift truck parking area located to the left of the field seems to have become smaller,” the monitoring group authors write.

On July 23, 2023,

Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Nikolai Karpenkov revealed in an interview that a special-purpose battalion had been established at the Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant. According to his words, It will be used not only for guarding the station but also for participating in combat operations.

The Commander of the Internal Troops stated that the newly formed special unit should be prepared for apprehending armed criminals and hostage rescue operations, conducting combat operations, tracking and eliminating sabotage and reconnaissance groups, as well as dealing with illegal armed formations.

On July 23, 2023,

On the morning of July 23, the tenth column of the Wagner PMC arrived in Belarus. They were traveling on a new route. The column altered its route, turning off from the M5 highway near Cherikov onto the R122 road towards Mogilev, and then continued along the M8 road towards Bobruisk.

In the column, there were at least 10 units of vehicles: covered KamAZ truck, several UAZ “Bukhanka” vehicles, a Volkswagen Transporter minibus, and no fewer than six wagons. Most of the vehicles had their license plates covered, while the rest either had Russian license plates or license plates of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LDPR).

On July 24, 2023,

Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Kubrakov met with mercenaries from the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC). The meeting took place at the Internal Troops Training Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The event was also attended by leaders and personnel of special units.

“The agenda included issues related to collaboration with the private military company and training our fighters by its instructors. Both parties have developed a clear action plan and exchanged views on the use of certain types of equipping,” the Ministry of Internal Affairs press service reported.

On July 24, 2023,

Last year, Lukashenko stated the necessity of arming some of the Emergencies Ministry’s personnel so that they could be involved alongside law enforcement officers in case of conflicts or military actions. The head of the department, Vadim Sinyavsky, announced on the state television channel that not just some, but 98% of rescuers had already been trained to fire their service weapons.

Sinyavsky explained that employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations were being prepared to assist the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Defense “in case of an armed conflict or any mass disturbances that require the involvement of a significant number of personnel“. According to him, the agency is currently receiving additional service weapons and training its personnel, and the overall training is nearing completion.

“98% of the Ministry of Emergency Situations personnel have undergone training in handling service weapon and safety measures for its use,” said Sinyavsky. He emphasized that cooperation with the Ministry of Internal Affairs requires rescuers to use one set of tactics, while for the Ministry of Defense, especially “in various elements of combat situations”, a completely different approach is needed.Therefore, employees are being trained “thoroughly and seriously”.

On July 25, 2023,

The press service of the Belarussian Ministry of Defense reported that the first Belarusian servicemen with more than 25 years of service had received rental housing free of charge for personal ownership.

According to Lukashenko’s decree, state rental housing is transferred into personal ownership free of charge after 25 calendar years of military service. If there are 20 calendar years of military service, such housing is transferred on a reimburseable basis with the possibility of paying its cost in instalments for up to 15 years.

The decree applies to servicemen and persons equivalent to them serving in the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Emergency Situations, KGB, State Border Committee, Security Service of the President of the Republic of Belarus, Operational and Analytical Center under the President of the Republic of Belarus, State Control Committee, central offices of the Investigative Committee, and the State Committee for Forensic Expertise, as well as in organizations within the system of these state bodies or subordinate to them.

On July 25, 2023,

Special tactical exercises with service members from military units 7404, 5522, and 5526. were held at the Internal Troops Training Center. Taking into account the risks of possible complications, the trainees carried out actions to destroy the illegal armed formations.

As part of a combat training event, soldiers practiced pursuing, capturing and repelling an attack by an illegal armed group on a populated area.The reserve servicemen acted out scenarios involving fire destruction of the enemy, assault on the building and hostage rescue, as well as organizing an ambush on the path of a vehicle’s movement.

As Deputy Commander of the Internal Troops Sergey Grebennikov explained, the Internal Troops are systematically implementing Lukashenko’s directive and preparing own trained resources “We are continuing the training of special forces units composed of service members, which are being formed for a specific period,” he noted.

On July 25, 2023,

The Ministry of Defense of Belarus has reported that Wagner PMC mercenaries continue to conduct training for Belarusian military personnel from various branches of the armed forces at various training grounds. The training focuses on “ensuring the survivability of troops during combat operations”.

“Not only units of special operations forces and mechanized units, but also units and subunits of engineering troops, radiation, chemical and biological protection troops, as well as communications troops have started to implement the roadmap of joint training,” the agency said.

On July 25, 2023,

The 11th column of Wagner PMC has crossed the Russian-Belarusian border. This column comprised no fewer than 29 units of automotive equipment, including 1 UAZ Patriot, 1 SUV, 6 armored vehicles “Shchuka” (“Chekan”; one with a trailer), 11 trucks, 6 tractor-trailers (carrying 6 excavators and 1 GAZelle on semi-trailers), 2 Ural-4320 (covered) and 2 KamAZ (covered, with the letter Z on the hood).

It’s worth noting that the armored vehicles “Shchuka” (“Chekan”) serve as distinctive transport vehicles used by the Wagner PMC. Previously, similar vehicles in columns of mercenaries arriving in Belarus had not been recorded.

On July 26, 2023,

Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs, Nikolai Karpenkov, revealed in an interview with propagandists that Belarusian Internal Troops continued joint combat training with Wagner PMC mercenaries in order to achieve operational harmonization. Karpenkov emphasized that these training sessions with Wagner PMC instructors were structured to enable Belarusian fighters “to stand shoulder to shoulder” with the mercenaries in combat the following day.

The Deputy Minister has noted that there is a closed communication channel with the Wagner PMC personnel, stating, “We can contact them at any moment, determine what needs to be done, assess the forces and resources, and carry out the combat mission.” The Commander of the Internal Troops has also clarified that joint exercises between Wagner PMC and security forces are oriented towards countering sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

On July 27, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko has signed decree No. 227 titled “On the Discharge into the Reserve and Conscription for Compulsory Military Service and Reserve Service.” This document outlines the conscription of male Belarusian citizens who have reached the age of 18 by the conscription date and are not eligible for exemption or deferment from conscription, as well as citizens of conscription age who have lost their deferment privileges. The conscription is scheduled to take place from August to November 2023 for compulsory military service and service in the reserve.

Simultaneously, the decree provides for the discharge into the reserve of conscripted servicemen who have completed their prescribed terms of service.

On July 28, 2023,

The 13th column of Wagner PMC mercenaries has been spotted on the M5 highway, consisting of at least 80 units of automotive equipment. At approximately 8 a.m., the column was moving from Bobruisk in the direction of Osipovichi.

According to witnesses, the column included armored vehicles such as “Shchuka” (“Chekan”), fuel trucks, PAZ bus, сovered and flatbed KamAZ trucks, lorries, Ural trucks, pickups, and passenger cars, as well as several trailers, a truck with a manipulator, and UAZ “Bukhanka” vehicles. Some armored vehicles had modified rear sections in the form of a KUNG, on which a cross was painted, similar to those on medical vehicles. Additionally, a gray bus with a red-green color scheme and the emblem of Belarus was spotted in the column.

On July 28, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko has made personnel appointments in the Armed Forces. Major General Vladimir Kupriyanuk, who is under sanctions for his involvement in Russian aggression against Ukraine, has been appointed as the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate and Deputy Chief of the Belarussian Armed Forces General Staff.

Major General Ruslan Kosygin, who held this position until now, has been discharged into the reserve due to age, with the right to wear a military uniform and insignia. Kosygin has led the the Main Intelligence Directorate since July 2020. He was born in Yalta, received his education in Chelyabinsk, and came to Belarus in the 1980s to serve in the military. Meanwhile, Kupriyanuk is originally from the Kamenecki District of the Brest Region.

Instead of Vladimir Kupriyanuk, Colonel Alexander Lavrenov has been appointed as the Chief of Staff – First Deputy Commander of the Western Operational Command of the Belarussian Armed Forces.

Personnel changes have occurred in the leadership of the Main military Inspectorate of the Armed Forces. Major General Andrey Gorbatenko, who previously headed the Minsk Suvorov Military School, has been appointed as its chief. Meanwhile, Major General Ivan Boguslavsky, who formerly held the position of Inspectorate chief, has been retired due to age, with the right to wear military uniform and insignia.

Colonel Dmitry Kuchuk has been appointed as the head of the Minsk Suvorov Military School, replacing Andrey Gorbatenko in the position.

On July 29, 2023,

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has analyzed satellite imagery and identified the construction of hangars for Iskander missile complexes within the territory of the 465th Missile Brigade in Osipovichi.

The construction of these hangars commenced in October 2022 and was finalized by April 2023. In a satellite image captured on July 4th, four Iskander missile launchers (or transporters) are discernible, along with two smaller auxiliary vehicles. Notably, one of the missile launchers has an open compartment for missiles.

In its assessment, FAS highlights that the Iskander missile systems and the new hangars for them are located approximately 12 kilometers away from a military depot, which could potentially serve as a storage site for nuclear weapons (near the village of Bolshaya Gorozha to the northeast of Osipovichi).

On July 29, 2023,

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense has announced that, in accordance with a decision made by the Belarusian Minister of Defense, there are ongoing additional intakes of students by the military educational institutions of the Russian Defense Ministry. It is noted that this recruitment is being conducted “in the interests of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus”.

Belarusians are being offered the opportunity to apply for admission to several Russian military educational institutions. These include the Mikhailovsky Military Artillery Academy, the Military University of Radio Electronics, The Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School, the Novosibirsk Higher Military Command School, the Tyumen Higher Military Engineering Command School, and a branch of the Military Academy of Material and Technical Support. It’s important to note that there are limited places available in each of these Russian institutions for the required specialties.

On July 30, 2023,

The press service of the Belarussian Defense Ministry reported that units of mechanized brigades had started joint training with instructors of the PMC “Wagner”. According to the Ministry, the training focuses on unit cohesion, from squads to companies, taking into account the experience of “PMC specialists”.

“The emphasis is placed on conducting combat operations in modern conditions, practicing elements of active defense, as well as addressing battlefield survivability concerns, considering the active use of unmanned aerial vehicles,” the Ministry of Defense statement reads.

On July 31, 2023,

Aleksey Polishchuk, the Director of CIS Second Department of Russian Foreign Ministry, informed RIA News that joint training centers for the preparation of Russian and Belarusian military personnel may be established for practically all types of armed forces. According to him, these centers will operate based on military units.

The spokesperson highlighted that the process of ratification by the Russian side for the agreement on the establishment and operation of joint training centers for military personnel was in its final stages. Belarus completed all the necessary procedures in July.

At present, as clarified by Polishchuk, there is an exploration of the possibility of establishing such centers for virtually all types of troops. They will operate based on military units in both Russia and Belarus.

On July 31, 2023,

Belarussian Minister of Defense Viktor Khrenin embarked on an official visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran on July 31. The visit encompassed negotiations with Iran’s military and political leadership to address “topical issues of Belarus-Iran bilateral military cooperation”.

Following the meeting between Viktor Khrenin and Iran’s Minister of Defense and Armed Forces Support, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, a memorandum of understanding concerning military cooperation between their respective agencies was signed. Additionally, a bilateral military cooperation plan for the ongoing year was formalized.

Chapter 12. August-2023: chronology of events in Belarus after announcement of mobilization in Russia.

On August 1, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko, during a meeting with residents of the agro-town of Belovezhsky in the Kamenets district, revealed that the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) mercenaries are located in the central part of Belarus, near Osipovichi, and “have no intention of going anywhere”.

He emphasized that the Wagner mercenaries in Belarus are needed to train the military because “an army that does not fight is only half an army”.

“I don’t want to fight. I don’t want our guys to die. So, we have to educate them. That’s why they are passing on their experience. They will provide advice and share their insights. They are highly satisfied with our soldiers. They believe our soldiers are well-trained individuals, and, most importantly, they are eager to learn. That’s why, while located near Osipovichi in the center of Belarus, these guys have no intention of going anywhere. They are accustomed to following orders,” stressed Lukashenko.

Lukashenko pointed out that he would like to keep the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) because they were experienced fighters who had been through war and lost many of their comrades. He said, “They provide assistance completely free of charge (although they are mercenaries who have fought and worked everywhere for money) and pass on their experience.”

On August 1, 2023,

Colonel Dmitry Kuchuk has been appointed as the new head of the Minsk Suvorov Military School, and he was introduced to the staff by the Deputy Minister of Defense, Major General Andrei Zhuk. According to the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, during the introduction the Deputy Minister noted that “a new chapter in the history of the School is beginning”

Kuchuk, aged 48, comes from a military family and graduated from the Minsk Suvorov Military School in 1992. He then continued his education in Russia at the Ryazan Airborne Command School and completed his studies at the Belarusian Military Academy. Throughout his career, he has held various positions, including command of the 5th Special Forces Brigade in Mariny Gorka from 2017 to 2020, followed by the role of Deputy Commander of Special Operations Forces.

On August 1, 2023,

Two Belarusian helicopters violated Polish airspace and the Belarusian Charge d’Affaires was summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry. “On 1 August, two Belarusian helicopters, which were conducting exercises near the border, violated Poland’s airspace. The Belarusian side had previously informed the Polish authorities about the exercises,” the statement reads.

It is noted that the border crossing took place near Bialowieza at a very low altitude, making it difficult for radar systems to detect. For this reason, the Polish military authorities had previously denied that the airspace had been violated.

On August 2, 2023,

It has been revealed that the Wagner PMC mercenaries are building fortifications at the Repishche training area near Osipovichi. This has been confirmed by satellite imagery from the Planet Labs service.

Judging from the photographs, the site is under active construction. The images show the construction of numerous fortifications, probably dugouts. Nearby, objects resembling passenger cars and light grey UAZ minivans can be seen, and bulldozers are in operation. It is highly likely that these fortifications are being built primarily for training purposes, such as training exercise simulating an assault on entrenchments.

On August 2, 2023,

In his address commemorating Airborne Troops and Special Operations Forces Day, the commander of the Special Forces, Vadim Denisenko, spoke of the experience the Belarusian armed forces had gained from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Denisenko noted that “from the ongoing conflict in the south” the Belarusian military personnel were “getting a lot of information” and that many aspects were undergoing “fundamental changes”.

“Now we’re revising and introducing completely new elements into the combat training programme that we hadn’t thought of before. They seemed unnecessary then. Now they turn out to be very necessary. If you’ve noticed, it’s all going back to the old style of warfare: the use of artillery, and in large numbers, small unit actions. That’s what we’re incorporating now,” said the Special Forces commander.

He emphasized that the Special Operations Forces were initially built with a system of action by small units: squads and companies. Denisenko announced that in the next training year, the training of Special Operations Forces personnel would go in two separate directions: the training of airborne units and the training of special forces.

On August 3, 2023,

Belarus may be attempting to negotiate with Iran on the production of Shahed kamikaze drones- similar to those used by Russia to attack Ukrainian cities on an almost daily basis. This conclusion was drawn by analysts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) following the start of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense’s visit to Iran.

The analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noted that Iranian Defence Minister, Ashtiani, is responsible for negotiations on the country’s military procurement and arms sales. Therefore, the authors write, the meeting between Khrenin and Ashtiani was a result of Belarus’ desire to conclude an agreement on the production of Iranian Shahed drones.

On August 5, 2023,

Eleven helicopters and nine fighter jets of the Russian Air Forces left Belarus. The helicopters took off from the Machulishchi airbase (Minsk region) and flew in an easterly (south-easterly) direction, later being spotted over the Mogilev region. The combat vehicles passed through the Mogilev region and crossed the Belarus-Russia border. Most of them spent 209 days in Belarus (since January 8, 2023). All 11 helicopters landed at the Sescha airfield (Bryansk Region).

It is also reported that 9 fighter jets (Su-34 and Su-30SM) of the Russian Air Forces took off from the Baranovichi airfield during the day. All of them were also headed for Russia. Most of these planes spent 202 days in Belarus, starting from January 15, 2023.

On August 5, 2023,

It has been announced that Belarusian military institutions will provide training for military personnel from Tajikistan. This agreement was reached between the defense authorities of the two countries, according to the Belarusian Assistant Secretary of Defense Valery Revenko.

From July 31 to August 4, representatives of the Tajik Ministry of Defense were in Belarus. Their purpose was to “familiarize themselves with military educational institutions in the Republic of Belarus”. As a result of the visit, it was agreed that military personnel from Tajikistan would be trained at Belarusian military universities. It is currently unknown when the programme will start and how many Tajik military personnel will come for training.

On August 6, 2023,

The Deputy Commander of Belarus’ Special Operations Forces, Vadim Lukashevich, told journalists that the Special Operations Forces of Belarus were changing their approach to combat training and equipping military personnel under the influence of the war in Ukraine.

“As for the special military operation, it has definitely had an impact on the preparation of the Special Operations Forces units. We are constantly analysing the course of its implementation. Like a sponge, we absorb all the innovative approaches used there. Based on this, we shape our combat training. It is with this in mind, we prepare our military personnel to carry out their tasks. With this in mind, we conduct reequipping activities for our units,” stated Lukashevich.

He also stated that servicemen were receiving new equipment. Vadim Lukashevich did not specify any details, other than mentioning the introduction of drones in all units. The Deputy Commander of the Special Operations Forces added that these troops were currently serving alongside border guards, protecting the border from sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

On August 7, 2023,

Channels linked to the founder of the Wagner private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, reported on how many mercenaries had gone on vacation and how many were currently in Belarus. It is reported that approximately 12,000 Wagner mercenaries are on vacation.1,500 mercenaries have been additionally transferred to Africa.

“And, of course, there are currently about 7,000 ‘Wagner Group’ fighters in the new temporary deployment point on the territory of Belarus,” the statement said.

On August 7, 2023,

A command-staff exercise involving the 6th separate guards mechanized brigade has begun in Belarus. The exercise will take place in several areas of the Grodno region and at the Gozhsky range, which is located near the Suwalki corridor – a piece of territory between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia, close proximity to Poland and Lithuania.

The agency said the exercise would practice issues related to the management of troops during combat operations, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine, in particular the widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles and close coordination between tank and motorized rifle units and units of other types of armed forces.

On August 8, 2023,

In Belarus, a command-staff exercise with the 6th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade continues, which began near the borders with Poland and Lithuania. During another round of the exercise, combat shooting and ambush actions were practiced.

“The exercise leadership has orchestrated a highly realistic and complex scenario that closely resembles real combat conditions,” stated the Ministry of Defense. Throughout the exercise, the units practice command and control issues during combat operations, taking into account the experience of the war in Ukraine, in particular the extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles and close coordination between tank and motorized rifle units and units of other types of armed forces.other branches of the armed forces.

On August 9, 2023,

The press service of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence has provided details about the training of units from the 38th Brest Separate Guards Airborne Assault Brigade. The exercises are taking place at the Brestski training ground, just a few kilometers from the Polish border.

Belarusian special operations forces are studying mine-explosive barriers, tactical medicine, and providing first aid and self-help for various gunshot wounds. “During the training, the soldiers actively apply the experience of a special military operation,” clarified in the Ministry of Defense.

On August 9, 2023,

It was reported that on the night of August 4th, the body of a serviceman with signs of suicide was found near the ‘Tushemlya’ border checkpoint. The private, born in 2002, was conscripted in April 2023 and was serving his compulsory duty in the Grodno border group.

“The causes of the of the tragedy are being established by the investigative-operational group that arrived at the scene of the body’s discovery,” the border group reported.

On August 10, 2023,

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that over the past two weeks, attempts to infiltrate protected areas and facilities had been thwarted by military personnel of the Armed Forces. The precise number of such incidents remains undisclosed.

“The detained individuals have been handed over to law enforcement,” the ministry stated. Additionally, an operator of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) who attempted to launch it over the territory of one of the military units has been arrested. “Several attempts to fly air vehicles over secured territory have been thwarted using means of electronic warfare,” the Ministry of Defense reported.

On August 10, 2023,

Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich stated during a meeting of the Grodno Regional Executive Committee that the leadership of Belarus had no aggressive intentions, offensive goals, or pretensions against neighboring states. He emphasized that Belarus had always been a peaceful country and had always followed a policy of good-neighbourly relations. However, he once again chided neighboring countries for militarization.

“Poland continues to form a mechanized division that will be stationed near our western borders. Two reinforced battalions have already been moved to the border areas. Exercises near the borders of Belarus are also a cause for concern: in Latvia alone, there have been ten major manoeuvres involving military personnel from the NATO bloc in the past two months. Reconnaissance flights from neighbouring countries continue to be detected along the Belarus-Russian border. All these facts raise legitimate concerns,” Volfovich noted.

On August 11, 2023,

A criminal case for evading military service obligations has been initiated in the Brest region against a young man from The Kamenetsky district who is a student at the Higher School of Agriculture in Warsaw. Previously, the young man had been removed from military registration based on a district court decision, following an appeal by his parents. He was studying at the economics faculty of the Higher School of Agriculture in Warsaw and was residing in the student dormitory.

“The regional prosecutor’s office disagreed with the district court’s decision, as the court did not consider all the facts that are part of the evidence in the case,” the agency’s statement said. They considered that there was no evidence to confirm the young man’s permanent residence in Poland.

The decision of the district court was overturned by the regional court. As a result, another check was appointed and this time a criminal case was opened under Article 435, Part 1 (“Evasion from activities on draft to the military service”) of the Criminal Code of Belarus.

On August 14, 2023,

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin has arrived in Moscow for a working visit. This was reported by the press service of the Belarusian Defense Ministry. The head of the Ministry of Defense participated in the International Military-Technical Forum “Army-2023”. As part of the events, Viktor Khrenin met with the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The two sides discussed issues of military and military-technical cooperation between their defense departments.

On August 14, 2023,

The new head of the Brest Border Group, Maxim Butranets, has assumed his duties, as reported by the press service of the Brest Regional Executive Committee.

Maxim Butranets was born in Sverdlovsk, Russia (now Yekaterinburg). He graduated from the Minsk Suvorov Military School and the Border Troops faculty of the Belarusian Military Academy, as well as the Border Academy of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). He served in various units of the State Border Committee of Belarus and held the position of the Deputy Head of the Gomel Border Group. In July 2015, he was appointed as the head of the Pinsk Border Unit. From 2018 to 2021, he led the Smorgon Border Group.

On August 14, 2023,

Major General Vladislav Budik has been relieved of his position as the Chief of the Main Organizational-Mobilization Directorate and Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Budik was discharged from military service due to his age, with the right to wear a military uniform and insignia.

Major General Budik joined the General Staff of the Republic of Belarus in August 2022. He was transferred there from his position as the head of the 72nd Guards Combined Training Centre for the preparation of warrant officers and junior specialists of the Armed Forces, a role he had held since November 2017. Budik graduated from the Tula Higher Artillery Engineering School and began his officer career as the training platoon commander. He later commanded the 361st Security and Maintenance Base, and then headed the Combined Training Centre for the preparation of warrant officers and junior specialists of the Armed Forces. He received the rank of Major General in July 2019.

On August 15, 2023,

A new government decree has been published which changes the current procedures for holding military and special assemblies. These military gatherings are categorised as follows: military gatherings for conscripts, conscript training in military-technical specialities, training for the maintenance of reserve equipment, and checking the combat and mobilisation readiness of military units and other military formations (checking gatherings). In particular, the duration of some categories has been changed. For example, while the duration of checking gatherings was previously limited to 35 days, the new decree extends it to 60 days.

The previous document outlined the specific frequency and duration of conscription for military assemblies. However, the new decree has removed the specified duration of military assemblies and focuses only on the frequency of call-ups for such military gatherings. Consequently, it appears that certain some conscripts without officer ranks may be called up for military assemblies more frequently during their reserve service.

The changes also include an increased role for the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) in conducting military assemblies. For example, the selection of candidates for conscription to military and special assemblies was previously the responsibility of military commissariats, which could also invite conscripts to update their registration data. Now this task is also carried out by the regional KGB offices. In addition, while conscripts were previously required to report to a military commissariat with their summons to the assembly, the place of reporting can now be the “regional KGB office”.

On August 15, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko once again raised the issue of deploying Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus in his welcome address to participants of the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security. Lukashenko has emphasized that today there is a new type of weapon that “undermines the system of international trade and economic relations”, specifically various types of restrictive measures and sanctions that have evolved into a “comprehensive threat of global scale”. Against this background, Belarus and Russia are making “maximum efforts to strengthen cooperation in combating transnational challenges and threats of various kinds”.

“By deploying tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, we are providing an adequate response to the accelerated militarization of Eastern Europe and the increased military activities of the United States and NATO. However, this does not negate the peaceful initiatives proposed by the Belarusian side and aimed at relaunching a dialogue on equal terms on issues of European and global security for the benefit of the whole planet – our common home,” Lukashenko stated.

On August 15, 2023,

China will continue to strengthen the security cooperation mechanism with member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and deepen defense cooperation with Iran and Belarus. This was announced by Li Shangfu, a member of the State Council and Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China, on August 15 at the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security.

“We will continue to strengthen the security cooperation mechanism within the SCO, actively deepen defense cooperation with the organisation’s new member Iran, as well as with Belarus, which will soon become a member of the SCO,” said Li Shangfu.

Meanwhile, the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, in his speech at the Moscow Conference, noted that Belarus had been focusing on issues such as “the need to establish multipolar relations, ensuring the indivisibility of security, unwavering compliance with international commitments, and strengthening trust-building measures among States“.

On August 15, 2023,

The likelihood of a direct military confrontation between the East and NATO in the future is growing increasingly apparent, as stated by Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin during his speech at the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security on August 15.

“Intensive military preparations are underway in the West, with significant financial investments being made. It is important to understand that in the capitalist world, no one freezes assets in weapons and an inflated army without a reason,” he read from the paper. “Therefore, the conclusion can be unequivocal: the possibility of a direct military confrontation with NATO in the future is becoming increasingly apparent.”

According to Khrenin, today “all the masks have been dropped, and the true intentions of the West are already being voiced by high-ranking officials”. Furthermore, the Minister of Defense is convinced that “certain Western politicians still think in terms of metropolises and colonies, essentially reviving the slave trade in a new form”.

On August 15, 2023,

Sergei Grebennikov, deputy commander of the Internal Troops under the Ministry of Internal Affairs, has announced that mortars, anti-tank systems, and portable anti-aircraft missile launchers will enter service in the Internal Troops. He also emphasized that the Internal Troops had a diverse range of weapons tailored for various tasks and that their arsenal was undergoing modernization.

“At present, we are working to put mortars, anti-tank missile systems, and portable anti-aircraft means into the arsenal,” Grebennikov stated. He clarified that the Internal Troops were forces of constant readiness. According to him, the Internal Troops pay special attention to drones. Grebennikov pointed out the extensive use of drones in the Russian war against Ukraine, which “play a significant role on the battlefield.

On August 15, 2023,

The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a necessary measure that poses no threat to other countries. This statement was made to journalists by the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Volfovich, during the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security.

“The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus is a necessary measure that does not pose a threat to the security of Poland, Lithuania, or any other country,” noted the Secretary of the Security Council. “It will only be used only if someone attempts to encroach upon the independent territory of the Republic of Belarus. Otherwise, these weapons will be stored according to all rules and regulations in storage facilities. We hope that it will never be used. We understand the consequences of using these weapons.”

On August 16, 2023,

Li Shangfu, the Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China, has arrived in Belarus for an official visit. The high-ranking Chinese military official was received at Minsk airport by Minister of Defence Viktor Khrenin.

It was previously reported that Li Shanfu’s visit to Russia and Belarus would last from 14 to 19 August. He received invitations from the heads of both countries’ military departments, Sergei Shoigu and Viktor Khrenin.

On August 17, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko met with Li Shangfu, the Defence Minister of the People’s Republic of China. Both parties discussed “the prospects and the deepening of military cooperation”. Alexander Lukashenko emphasized that “the fundamental ideas of China and Belarus regarding the current and future global world order are in complete alignment”.

“We are staunch supporters of a multipolar world. We are staunch supporters of the territorial integrity and unity of the borders and territories established after the Second World War. We stand for non-interference in the internal affairs of states,” Lukashenko said.

He emphasized that Belarus and China relied on a strong economy and powerful diplomacy in their policies. Lukashenko also stressed that the cooperation between Belarus and China “will in no way be directed against third countries”.

On August 17, 2023,

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced the ferrying of the first batch of Russian-made Mi-35 helicopters into Belarus by Belarusian pilots. Contracts for the delivery of the first batch of four Mi-35M helicopters from Russia were signed in late August 2020.

“Belarusian pilots are currently involved in transporting the first batch of Mi-35 helicopters,which have been integrated into the arsenal of the Belarusian Armed Forces. These helicopters were were received in accordance with the plan for the construction and development of the Belarusian Armed Forces and through military-technical cooperation with the Russian Federation,” the Belarusian Defense Ministry said.

The Mi-35M is a deep modernization of the Mi-24. Unlike other variants, it has non-retractable landing gear, shortened wing with two (instead of three) points of the suspension arms, a new swashplate (a tool ащк rotor control), upgraded electronics.

On August 17, 2023,

Alexander Lukashenko gave an interview to Diana Panchenko, a pro-Russian propagandist from Ukraine. During the interview, he said that some Russian military units had crossed the Ukrainian border from Belarusian territory. However, he blamed Kyiv for the beginning of the war.

“We’re accused of having contributed to the outbreak of war. No, the war was already under way. And you unleashed it. The Ukrainians started this war against Belarus. It was mainly an economic war. You imposed a blockade on us in the southern direction. You didn’t let our planes through before the Europeans did. You didn’t let our cargo to pass. Furthermore, you even arrested thousands of railway wagons with mineral fertilisers that we were loading here, in the port of Odessa,” Lukashenko declared.

On August 18, 2023,

Belarus celebrated Air Force Day with an aerial parade. Planes and helicopters belonging to the Air Force flew over the Machulishchy airfield near Minsk. The parade included Mi-8MTV-5 and Mi-24 helicopters, an An-26 military transport aircraft, L-39 “Albatros” trainer aircraft, Yak-130 combat training aircraft, Su-25 ground-attack aircraft, Su-30SM fighters, and Il-76MD heavy military transport aircraft.

“The Tu-134A aircraft was presented for the first time during the demonstration flights. It has recently entered the arsenal of our Air Force,” the department reported. There were also parachute jumps with flags.

On August 19, 2023,

The first echelon of the Russian Armed Forces has arrived in Belarus to take part in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation exercises. The echelon with military equipment and personnel arrived at the Brest-Yuzhny railway station. They will be involved in joint exercises with the collective rapid reaction forces of the CSTO “Interaction-2023”, which will be held in Belarus from September 1 to 6.

Information about these exercises was reported as early as June 2023, when negotiations on the organisation and conduct of joint CSTO exercises were held in Brest. At least part of the planned exercises will take place at the Brestsky training area, where Russian military personnel will be present until at least September 9.

On August 20, 2023,

The commander of the 50th Mixed Aviation Base in Machulishchy, Vladimir Skorkin, announced on state television that Belarus would receive an additional eight Mi-35 helicopters from Russia, with half of the batch to be delivered by the end of the year. According to him, the new combat helicopters will resemble the earlier version of the Mi-24 but will be more powerful.

“All the equipment is new. Both our Mi-8 and Mi-35 helicopters will be equipped with a radio-electronic warfare system. Their aerobatic capabilities have been increased and they can be used at night,” explained the base commander.

On August 22, 2023,

From August 22 to September 14, under the leadership of the Chairman of the Polotsk District Executive Committee, a training session will be held with conscripts of territorial troops.

Conscripts of the territorial defense will be accepted and deployed to receive provision support from a mobilization deployment base. They will be trained to perform tasks according to their military occupational specialties, while the command staff will refresh their management skills.

Additionally, a people’s militia unit will be established. The preparation and utilization of this unit will be practiced. The gathering will conclude with a command-staff exercise involving the territorial defense forces of the region.

On August 22, 2023,

Colonel Dmitry Streshinsky was appointed head of the Territorial Defence Department and deputy chief of the General Staff. The corresponding decree was signed by Alexander Lukashenko on August 22. Dmitry Streshinsky previously served as Chief of the Troops’ Service of the Belarusian Armed Forces.

The position of the head of the Territorial Defense Department became vacant in July. Major General Andrey Matievich, who previously held this position, was promoted to the position of the First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces.

On August 23, 2023,

The Il-76 military transport plane of the Russian Aerospace Forces landed at the Machulishchi airfield at 20:55. This is the first arrival of a military transport aircraft at Machulishchi in the last month.

On August 24, 2023,

The press service of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus has announced that the joint operational and strategic exercise “Battle Brotherhood – 2023” will be held in Belarus from September 1 to 6. The exercise will take place at training ranges and in areas of the Brest, Grodno, and Minsk regions.

According to the general concept, the “Battle Brotherhood – 2023” exercises are planned to include joint and special exercises, combining the preparation of various components of the CSTO’s collective forces. The military contingents participating in the exercises will begin their deployment to Belarus on August 25th.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) clarified that, in accordance with agreements reached during staff negotiations, “the exercises will involve national contingents from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan”. In total, more than 2,500 troops and over 500 units of weapons, military and special equipment are reported to be participating in the exercises.

On August 24, 2023,

Belarus has announced an inspection of the combat and mobilization readiness of the 2657th fuel base. The purpose of this event is to assess the ability of the base’s units to complete their personnel, armament, military and special equipment, and carry out their designated tasks.

“Currently, in accordance with the schedule, mobilization resources are being received. Subsequently, the unit will march to the designated area, where combat coordination activities will be conducted,” noted the Belarusian Ministry of Defense.

On August 25, 2023,

Speaking to journalists, Alexander Lukashenko said that as many Wagner mercinaries as necessary would remain in Belarus. According to him, Belarusian servicemen, especially the internal troops and special units, are willingly to learn from the Wagner Group.

“Wagner lived, Wagner lives, and Wagner will continue to live in Belarus, no matter what anyone wishes. Together with Prigozhin, we’ve established a system for the deployment of the Wagner PMC in our country. As for those satellite images showing us dismantling something… Why are we removing extra tents? We don’t need that many. The core staff are still here, some have gone on holiday, others have chosen to live elsewhere. However, the contact details, addresses, passwords, and access codes of this core are known. Within a few days, they will all be here, up to 10,000 people. There’s no need to keep them here at the moment. Therefore, they’re not fleeing anywhere. They will continue to live and work with us as long as we, including certain military units, need them,” Lukashenko stressed.

On August 25, 2023,

During the military exercises in the Grodno region, which took place in early August, an incident occurred in the agro-town of Porechye, located 30 km from Grodno: a tank fired in the direction of the settlement and hit a building of the cadet school. Fortunately, no one was injured.

The combat vehicle was participating in exercises near the Gozhsky firing range. For an unknown reason, the tank crew raised the main gun and fired. The projectile hit the parade ground of the Grodno Regional Cadet School in Porechye, ricocheted, and caused damage to the wall of a neighboring building. There were no casualties resulting from the incident

The military quickly carried out repairs to the building, eliminating the damage. There has been no formal announcement or disclosure regarding the incident.

On August 25, 2023,

In Belarus, the State Military-Industrial Committee (Goskomvoenprom) has announced that small-scale production of domestic strike drones ‘Loitering Tube’ and ‘Quadro-1400’ will commence by the end of 2023. These drones are already in service with the Belarusian army.

Both models were developed in Vitebsk by the construction bureau ‘Display’, which typically specialises in the production of screens, LCD panels, display systems, and similar products. The bureau is currently preparing to launch the production line, having modernised its production facilities and purchased new equipment. The work to put drones into production will be completed by the end of the year.

“In the process of preparing for serial production, efforts are being made to expand the range of target payloads: carrier of aerial bombs, cargo delivery, optical observation station, and radio signal retransmission,” the Goskomvoenprom stated.

On August 28, 2023,

Vyacheslav Hrolovich, the Deputy Head of the Military Education Department of the Belarusian Armed Forces, informed journalists that 97 Belarusians would study at the Russian Defence Ministry’s military academies this year. A total of 97 Belarusian cadets have been admitted to the Russian Defence Ministry’s military training institutions this year.

Vyacheslav Hrolovich has explained that this number depends on the demand for specialists within the Belarusian Armed Forces. Belarusians will be studying at 16 Russian military academies, including five educational institutions in St. Petersburg, as well as institutions in Ryazan, Moscow, Cherepovets, Chelyabinsk, Tyumen, Novosibirsk, Voronezh, Yaroslavl, and other cities.

About 20 individuals will study at the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School, where they will undergo training in the Special Operations Forces programme. The same number will attend the Mikhailovskaya Military Artillery Academy near St. Petersburg. In addition, two individuals will be sent to study as military conductors.

On August 29, 2023,

Serhiy Nayev, the Joint Forces Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stated that Russia had withdrawn all its troops from Belarus, but could send them back under the guise of military exercises.

According to Nayev, the Russian ground component has been completely withdrawn from Belarus and is currently in the reserve of the combined group of Russian Forces, which units are on the offensive in the Kupyansk/Liman areas. The Commander also stressed that in September a series of joint CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) exercises were planned for September on the territory of Belarus, which Russia could use as an opportunity to expand its military presence in the country once again.

On August 29, 2023,

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that Belarusian students studying in Russia could be granted deferments “in case of adoption of the corresponding state programme of our country or the Union State, the implementation of which will be entrusted to the Belarusian Ministry of Education“.

It is also noted that a military service deferment can be granted under Article 32 of the Law on Military Duty and Military Service “in the presence of corresponding instruction from the Belarusian Government or another higher state authority“.

According to the provisions of this article, a deferment for further education abroad can be granted only to those applicants who are sent to foreign educational institutions by Belarusian government bodies. In other words, this applies to employer-sponsored students. Deferments are also granted for the purpose of obtaining military-technical specialisations, completing an internship and passing a qualification examination in the internship specialisation, as well as on the basis of decrees issued by the President of Belarus.

On August 29, 2023,

The Secretary of the Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, stated on the state television channel that the neighboring countries of Belarus do not face any threats from the mercenaries of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC).

“The accusations that Belarus poses a threat to its neighbors by hosting or providing a place for the ‘Wagner’ unit are pure falsehood. The ‘Wagner’ unit does not pose any threat to anyone. These people, who are currently stationed in Belarus, are only involved in maintaining their professional skills and have contracts to provide instructor services. They work as instructors on training grounds, sharing their extensive combat experience,” stated Volfovich.

He also emphasized that the use of “military professionals to maintain combat readiness and train soldiers” was a normal international practice.

On August 30, 2023,

As reported by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, another set of the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system has entered service with the Belarusian army. Judging by the published footage, it appears to involve at least three Iskander batteries.

The arrival of “Iskander” missiles was reported to the “VoenTV” channel by an unnamed lieutenant colonel in a balaclava. The man was signed as the “Deputy Brigade Commander”. He stated, “Another and not the last military echelon has arrived on the territory of the Republic of Belarus with the best-in-class weapon – the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile system.”

The aforementioned lieutenant colonel added that the distinctive feature of the system was the use of missiles, including those with a “special combat unit” (namely a nuclear warhead with a yield of several tens of kilotons). The officer further noted that the personnel of the Belarusian unit had completed a full training course in Russia “for the use of the special warhead”.

As reported by the Ministry of Defense, Belarusian military began full independent operation of the first batch of “Iskander” systems in February 2023.

On August 31, 2023,

Belarusian servicemen from the 120th Brigade have gone for combat training in Russia, which will last for a month. Soldiers from one of the units of the 120th Separate Guards Mechanized Brigade, based in Uruchye, have embarked on a mission to Russia for an intensive combat training course. Over the course of a month, they will undergo training under the guidance of Russian instructors at one of the Russian specialized training centers.

Belarusian military personnel departed for Russia aboard an Il-76MD aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force from the Machulishchy airfield. Later, the aircraft landed at the Kubinka airfield in the Moscow region.

Brief overview of the events after the announcement of mobilization in Russia

The period under review:

The period from 21st September 2022 to 31st December 2022

Conclusions

In September Lukashenko made statements that there would be no mobilization in Belarus, but in October he and other representatives of the regime began to declare that Belarus would participate in a ‘special operation’ and would not allow Ukraine to stab Russia in the back.

Throughout the period under review, both military gatherings and exercises took place in various cities in Belarus, partly due to the planned conscription campaign and partly unrelated to it.

In October, the Belarusian military gatherings were supplemented by joint activities with the Russian militaries, and on October 10, 2022, Lukashenka and Putin agreed to deploy a joint regional grouping of troops.

The movement of the Russian military on the territory of Belarus was observed, as well as Russian equipment on the Belarusian railways. Most of the events associated with the manifestation of Russian intervention, including the visits of Sergei Shoigu, took place in December 2022. However, the activity of Belarusian military training and exercises decreased significantly.

During this period, there were at least five cases in which men were charged under Article 435, Part 1 of the Criminal Code (evasion of regular call-up to active military service). One of them was fined 2,240 BYN (approximately 907 EUR). On September 29, 2022, a 24-year-old man who tried to avoid military service and went to Poland was tried. He was detained on his return to Belarus and sentenced to a two-month arrest.

In October two regulatory legal acts were adopted: the law on deferrals for those liable for military service and Lukashenka’s decree. On October 12, the Belarusian parliament adopted in the first reading a draft law which, among other things, clarified the grounds for granting the right to defer conscription. Most importantly, the draft law proposed to reduce the number of persons receiving deferment of conscription. Decree No. 387 approved a draft agreement with the Russian Federation on the establishment and operation of joint combat training centers for the armed forces.

Military events for the year 2023 have been repeatedly announced. One of these should be the Union Shield 2023 exercise, which will be held jointly with the Russian military. This is alarming because the last military exercise in 2022 ended with a strike against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus on February 24, 2022.

Thus, the first two months after the announcement of the mobilization in the Russian Federation are characterized by active military gatherings and exercises of the Belarusian Armed Forces, whereas the last month of the year is marked by more frequent movements of Russian equipment on Belarusian territory, as well as by both the visit of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and especially Vladimir Putin’s first in three years visit to Minsk.

This gives reason to believe that the Kremlin intends to push Lukashenko into full-scale participation in the war against Ukraine.