On June 14-16, command and staff exercises aimed at improving the troops’ command and control capabilities were held in Belarus. Military units, military governing bodies and logistics organizations participated in them. Does it mean that Belarus is preparing to join the war in Ukraine again?

The Defense Ministry of Belarus says the exercise “is aimed at quality training of units and logistics organizations to perform tasks for their intended purpose in modern conditions of the emerging environment”. The aim of the exercise is to improve the coherence of logistics in managing forces and equipment, to train the military personnel and logistics units. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) quotes Major-General Andrei Burdyko, head of the logistics of the Armed Forces of Belarus, who said that several military units and logistics organizations will be involved in the exercise.

However, the Institute for the Study of War says that the probability of Belarusian attack on Ukraine is questionable, despite the start of the exercises. Experts note that Lukashenka is afraid of internal disturbances, which may start if Belarus gets involved in military operations. The Institute also says that any attack by Belarus on northern Ukraine would be highly ineffective, and if the country goes to war, the imposed sanctions will be devastating.

Since the beginning of May, military exercises in Belarus have continued. On 4 May, a surprise inspection of the response force began: military units and subunits practiced bringing into readiness for combat, march to designated areas, and other tasks. On May 10, a new check of the troops’ readiness began because of exercises in the territory of European NATO countries and a military grouping allegedly located on the Belarus-Ukraine border. On May 23, Belarusian law enforcers started checking the weapons, and military and special equipment stored in military combat, logistics and technical support units.

The exercise continued into June. All that time, Lukashenka has been saying that a war would break out on the territory of Belarus and that one should be prepared for it. We keep hoping that Belarus will not join the war in Ukraine: for our soldiers it may end poorly. Nevertheless, as long as there is even the slightest possibility that Belarus will attack Ukraine, our campaign will continue.

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